Allsnow

18z gfs has the perfect costal track for the 25th. Unfortunately, the bl is torch with the lakes low. At least the cutters will be gone after Saturday

The pattern will improve after the 20th but the -epo/poleward pna has been waffling on the guidance.

Yep. We are loosing the -epo look and are left with +pna and split flow look. The reshuffle around the 25th could hurt temps around here. next week looks cold and dry

Yeah, Philadelphia is at less then a inch. It would be fitting for that to happen next week. The storm coming into the northwest is kicking the ridge East. It’s not a bad pattern for a southeast snowstorm lol. But I agree, we will have chance in this pattern. Eventually something will work for us down here.

Next Wednesday is definitely a good pattern for a southeast snowstorm. That would be fitting lol. Euro is very close for the southeast

The roundy plots have this going into p8 to start February then dying and convection starting in p2 (standing wave). As you posted p2 is a cold look for February. The rmm plots I think are picking up on the kelvin wave in p6. Which is why they are curling back earlier

From what I can see the reason you are still getting the loop on the rmm plots is a kelvin wave in p6. You can see it on the roundy plots. This is still going to go around the horn. That pink line is the kelvin wave in warm phases. But the real mjo is in p8 by feb 10th

Yep, weeklies are great looking until mid/end of February. Then the Niña pattern returns with ridge in the East. That makes sense imo with the mjo going around the horn. And I wouldn’t mind a warm start to March this year.

@jbenedet here are two articles about lag response for each mjo phase.

The eps went towards the GEFS with the -epo ridging. That’s a real cold look

I think a lot depends on the wave break from the mid week storm for northern New England. Most of the guidance is really blowing that up so it helps with the confluence. The main player imo is the high pressure. That’s a real strong high moving in at 1044. The mjo response in p6 is more of southeast ridge. The euro was amped at 12z which raised hgts in the East. We have seen this throughout the winter season with the euro. It will be amped then slowly back away from it. It is currently the most amped up global from the 12z suite.

Some Mid Atlantic crush jobs on the idv eps with that closed low look. It’s definitely going to get active along the east coast. Eps has a potential costal the middle of next week and the following weekend. I like the the axis of the trough around the 25th.

The mean trough might be too Far East for us. FWIW the euro was a close miss.

That cold shot next week has strat support with the pv taking a right hook.

Yeah, that’s some Barney colored type cold coming after this system. Would be nice to lay some snow down for that.

No that’s not what he is saying. When you’re between phases you can still have effects of the previous phase. You can have a bit of lag

Next weekend is going to cut into the lakes. If we can get a cold high pressure with some cad perhaps it starts as some snow. I would keep expectations in check with that one. The better patterns starts after next weekend

Yep. We very well could swing and Miss. let’s hope for better luck this time. Last January we missed a storm to our south that crushed DCA.

Why would you be looking at the gfs that far out? It will change at 00z. You use the ensembles at that range. If it makes you feel better the euro has a costal snowstorm in that timeframe

Great to see both of you here! Hope all is well

I have provided proof with the roundy plots which you fail to acknowledge. I also have the ensembles all agreeing on a pattern change. Those plots you posted are off the GEFS and only going out to jan 16. So if the pattern is supposed to flip after the 20th what do they prove?

All we can say is the pattern looks to improve after the 20th. I get it, you can’t shovel potential! We very could score a nice storm or continue the bad luck. For us to get a storm we need a better pattern so we have that.

I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases.

We don’t need some uber -nao to trigger all the cold dry folks

My thoughts are it will be transient in nature but that’s all we really need to capitalize on something. The Scandinavian ridge is really a nice precursor to a -nao.