Allsnow

I don’t know what he is saying but that is a ugly look on the eps. Vortex in ak with a +nao. The only thing that makes it cooler by him is the split flow. If that’s what he is saying.

Yep. I’m pretty sure we gain a phase of the mjo that is cold in March. I believe it is p3. Another year with a favorable mjo pass that will result in a unfavorable response. We could see some hits on the Pv starting in mid February that will line up with your timing well.

I would expect them to kick the can on any favorable pattern until mid February

Another rathe ugly eps run. As the vortex sits in ak with a ridge near Hudson Bay. Canada is really flooded with above normal pac air. The ridge from Hawaii is into the west coast. This look is locked on the eps all the way into the first week of February.

Eps is ugly to end January. Vortex into AK with a dateline ridge into the west coast.

Yep. The wave in p5 (kelvin) is gaining strength and will be the main wave once the forcing weakens in wpac.

Enjoy the snow today as I don’t think we will see much sustained cold going forward. Looks like my idea of this getting into p8 is going to fail. We will be into p7 at the end of the month so perhaps we pull a storm off. After that we are going to head to p5/6 as the kelvin wave is getting stronger. Wash rinse repeat. The RMM plots might have been correct for the wrong reasons earlier this month but they have merit now. Just one of those winters that whatever can go wrong will go wrong. We can always pull off a storm but it will be hard with temps above normal. If we have any hope of sustained cold/snow in the second half of February we need to see the Pv weaken. Convection is always hard to predict in the future. Those looking for above normal days are about to get more. The uber Pv, -PDO, +AAM, and warm pool south of Ak were all huge players in this failed winter.

We just can’t shake the lower hgts in Ak. What once looked like a sustainable cold stretch next week has morphed into a few cold days. Coldest part of winter(especially further north then me) we don’t need a ice box but we are above normal after Thursday. Eps hinting at a swfe last week of January as snow mean creeps up.

-PDO means more of a -pna correct? Which has been another red flag lately, the inability for the pac to corporate. I was reading that warm waters south of ak might not Be that good for us anymore. It might be a magnet for low pressures. I believe 09–10/02-03 didn’t have those warm pool there. The lag effect has been noticeable in p8 for DJF. Question @bluewave @Isotherm why no lag effect in p8 during November? Shorter wave lengths?

And reading the post by @Isotherm any help we get will be pac/strat related come mid February.

The mjo the last two years has been incredibly frustrating. All we do well with it is amplitude in the warm phases. And when we do get favorable phases (ex feb 2019 and January 2020) we don’t get the response we are expecting. For some reason the mjo in cold phases during November has worked better lol. Admittedly, I didn’t see how bad the pv was going to hurt us this winter. Once it continued to strengthen and couple with the atmosphere it was lights out.

I think it’s picking up on a kelvin wave in p6. This is why the rmm plots are decaying in 7 then heading to 6. Most recently as of today, those plots don’t enter 6 anymore and are staying in cod. I think (this is my opinion) you will make it to p8 to start February then decay in io.

Great stuff. Did you read that tweet about the MVP index? From what I understand if it’s + it will prevent from having a typical p8 mjo response. I agree that we will most likely not see any help from the ao or nao this year.

Yeah if the dateline ridge comes back that would also keep the epo form going -. The weeklies are nine chilling for the start of February so perhaps it is going to score a win. It was the first to see the Niña pattern for early January.

Great to see you post here. Yeah at the end of the eps the vortex looks to be setting up shop. The weeklies have this weakening and Being replaced with a ridge. It would be best to see this low sit in the Aleutians instead of moving into ak. I know the euro is looping back to p6 on the rmm plots. I wonder if this is the reason we are seeing such swings in the northern pacific. The AAM spike is also playing a role in pushing the ridge into central Canada. On the roundy plots you can see a kelvin wave in p6. Imo this is why the euro is looping back into p6. I think as we get closer to the end of January you will see it correct into p8. Looks like by mid February the mjo wave dies in 8 and rots in cod. Perhaps then climo nino will take over. The weeklies do look good to start February and have a -nao look to start March lol.

Yep. Let’s hope its misplaced and we keep it by the Aleutians. It could be because the euro is looping the mjo back to 6. Which imo is bogus but I honestly don’t know anymore. It is what it is at this point

Yep. That’s not a good look in the 11-15 day. The goa low would move into ak. Let’s hope that’s not correct. We have seen the 11-15 day just change.

Ripping pretty good here in this snow shower.

Those plots are picking up on a kelvin wave in p6. That’s why you’re getting the curl back then back to 8. By the start of February we will be in p8 then the wave looks to die. Will will probably be in cod after the 10th then climo nino takes over for February. You can now see the members curling back. Those maps are so predictable.

It’s okay Anthony. I’ll survive

Then a 95 blizzard on the 30th...obviously this will change but shows the potential

Happy Hour Gfs says congrats dca and ACY next weekend during the torch

Yep. Historic cold in December 2017 to record snows in March 2018. On the flip side, record warmth in February 2018/2019 and now record warmth in January 2020. I would be fool to not say that the earth has warmed. But imo the extremes are most noticeable.

Yes. I made a comment in the discussion thread that the pond skating in 1907 had to be horrible.