Allsnow

Souther jersey near Cape May has been getting crushed this morning 

.41 overnight 

48 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Light rain currently 

.20 

Light rain currently 

37 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Maybe. Hrrr weakens it

Areas affected...Southeast PA...NJ...far northern MD/DE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484...

Valid 292238Z - 300015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 484 continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to localized severe wind gusts from 50-65 mph will remain possible, mainly focused across southeast Pennsylvania and adjacent states. How far downstream this extends east of the Delaware Valley is uncertain, with forecast expectation of weakening farther east into New Jersey.

DISCUSSION...A surging accelerated portion of a short-line segment has bowed across a part of east-central to southeast Pennsylvania. Its current eastward track will result in movement into a more weakly unstable air mass. But given its organization, a damaging wind threat will probably spread east of WW 484 into NJ before diminishing. Meanwhile, supercell structure exists within the tail-end robust updraft in south-central PA. With a plume of low 90s surface temperatures emanating north over central MD, it is plausible the lagging portion of the convective line may undergo a similar acceleration and bowing surge. This could potentially impact parts of far northern MD/DE, adjacent to WWs 482/484.

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nice bow echo along 78 with 70 mph winds

Would think we get some rain from that line 

Game on tomorrow? KPHL is all in 

Tornado warning central Pa 

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

3k nam takes tonight's activity south and tomorrow's line north before a line blows up tomorrow evening for the city east

This will be the way it plays out 

Will the sun come out today? 

We need rain 

Played out as I expected. 
 

Missed the best severe weather to my north and just  some straight form rain later at night . 

Don’t like the looks of the radar sw of me. Latest HRRR and guidance showing another miss to my north 

Looks like the stuff in south central PA will affect us late tonight. 
 

Cell heading towards NYC looks strong 

Getting some rain here currently 

Great job by the short range models 

Kdix down? 

Must be a beast of a storm to my north..

the winds here currently are pretty strong 

Brutal miss to my north 

The stuff in WV is probably what effects areas further south tonight 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

The line out by Harrisburg looks good for north of 78 

Yup. Line looks strong for that area 

The line out by Harrisburg looks good for north of 78 

12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep but that 18z run of HRRR does hit our area with an inch of rain. 18z 3km NAM does as well. Like I said I don't like the late timing of this event as it will limit severe potential, but hopefully we'll get heavy rain out of it. 

We need the rain 

Mesoscale Discussion 1429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...much of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southeast New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 262002Z - 262200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated severe gusts or marginal hail may occur this afternoon, with a greater potential for more widespread thunderstorms this evening.

DISCUSSION...The air mass continues to destabilize south of an east-west oriented boundary from the PA/NY border eastward into southern New England. Visible satellite shows increase CU fields, with a few thunderstorms now extending from south-central PA into northern VA.

As the main upper wave continues east, storms over northern PA along the front may organize further with damaging winds over much of northern PA possible. Isolated activity over southern PA has outflow associated with it currently, and this may support further development across the remainder of southeast PA, and eventually into NJ and southern NY. As such, the area is being monitored for further intensification or increase in coverage of the existing activity, and another watch may be considered over the next few hours south and/or east of WW 464.