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Snow fall (incomplete CT) for event... all NYC airports measured snowfall. Even though a pocket of 2" nw NJ, the general larger amounts were in CT/MA. Click map for greater clarity.

Yes all airports first measurable with CP 0.2". That is done. Now we go for the first inch. Will reevaluate Christmas morning around 7 or 8A.

Add on as you wish: posted nw suburbs. I may not be able to post again til Christmas morning but will try to get a CoCoRahs summary of snowfall posted around 10A??? May or may not have time. From what I've seen, generally near an inch nw NJ and se NYS. Saw a 1.4" Rockaway NJ.

My only post today for our I84 corridor... what I expressed to my FB friends. Happy Christmas eve everyone, All of our I84 corridor has a fresh covering of snow on the ground (1" seems to be common- at least here in nw NJ) with the snow ending in CT by 9A, and Boston area by 11A (it may not snow along the NH border of ne Massachusetts). So where do we go from here? Little brief icing's or mixed wintry events for the I84 corridor the rest of December, but we may see somewhat larger snows in the first of half of Jan????? Anything outlooked wintry beyond a few days is subject to great error in this pattern. Midnight tonight to 10A Christmas Day: A very brief period of ice is possible for the highest terrain of the Poconos-Catskills (above 1500 feet) before it turns to rain by dawn; while northern CT and MA should see a period of general light ice after 4A Christmas before it too changes to rain by 10A Christmas Day. The National Weather Service already has advisories posted in CT/MA northward. Follow updated forecasts from favorite sources and don't forget to leave some fuel for the reindeer. 611A/24

Wantage 1.0" 25F. Beautiful morning. CP had to measure had 1/4S+ and .03 melted with a temp 31-32. KNYC 240951Z AUTO VRB04KT 8SM OVC055 M01/M03 A3012 RMK AO2 SNE0852 SLP192 P0000 T10061028 KNYC 240851Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM -SN BR SCT011 BKN049 OVC075 M01/M03 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP198 P0003 60003 T10111028 58014 KNYC 240847Z AUTO 15004KT 4SM -SN BR FEW011 BKN045 OVC075 M01/M03 A3014 RMK AO2 P0003 KNYC 240834Z AUTO VRB04KT 2SM -SN BR FEW009 OVC031 M01/M03 A3015 RMK AO2 P0003 T10111028 KNYC 240832Z AUTO VRB03KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC029 M01/M03 A3015 RMK AO2 P0003 T10111028 KNYC 240823Z AUTO VRB04KT 1/2SM -SN FZFG FEW008 OVC015 M01/M03 A3015 RMK AO2 P0003 T10111028 KNYC 240807Z AUTO VRB03KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV014 M01/M03 A3017 RMK AO2 P0002 T10111033 KNYC 240758Z AUTO VRB05KT 1/4SM +SN VV018 M01/M04 A3018 RMK AO2 P0001 T10061044 KNYC 240751Z AUTO 16006KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC027 01/M06 A3018 RMK AO2 VIS 1/2V5 SNB47 SLP214 P0000 T00061056 KNYC 240651Z AUTO 13003KT 10SM SCT065 OVC085 02/M08 A3018 RMK AO2 SLP213 T00171083

Wantage NJ at 230A Dec 24 0.3" snowfall and snowing at a pretty good clip. 25/23 light ne wind. It is beautiful. Everything covered nicely.

26/18 here in Wantage and generally overcast with a very light north wind. 00z HRRR has this as a 1A-8A event for most of our area and now is colder with measurable snow to NYC/noethern Li. We shall know more in the morning. Seemingly no big deal most of the time, but this winter, if it measures NYC, that will be a relatively big deal for 12/24 along with slippery conditions on all untreated surfaces along and north of I80. This may be my last post for much of the night.

Thanks .. looks like it's coming. Let see the surprises. I'll try to be up for some of this.

Choose your model and since since the NAM through the 06z/23 cycle was dry in NYC, there is no guarantee this thread will be correct for NYC. I'm putting my money on the 06z/23 EC, HRRR, RGEM and allowing for a chance of 0.2" measurable snowfall in NYC early Friday morning. Temps I think will be down to 32F in NYC in a period of snow in the 2-4AM time frame, and then a question if it sticks, will it still be on the snow board at 7AM-12z/24 OBS time. So, if the HRRR/RGEM/EC/GFS don't shift the southern edge north during today's cycles, I am expecting a dusting up to an inch I78 region northward inclusive of northern LI and NYC, while the jackpot, 1-3" if you will, should lie further north from the Catskills through CT. Blame a warm frontal wave (passage of an area of pressure falls on the warm front to our south), ahead of the stronger low pressure heading for our area on Christmas. Ensembles are not enthusiastic for an inch of snow except well north of I84, so we need to keep than in mind as well. Adjusted the title at 609PM to add OBS and NOWCAST

Just waiting for the 06z EC before setting up a thread that will basically incorporate the OBS as well. You may need to be up early tomorrow morning to see the snow on the ground in NYC. It's not guarantee but other than the dry NAM (it goes away in 2023--- and it did not perform well recently), I think just about all of us except the s coast of LI we will see a touch of snow on the ground tomorrow morning.

I may begin an thread for small snowfall in our area 04z-14z/24 including possible measurable NYC. I'll rereview around 8A Thursday and decide then whether it's a regular thread or hold off til Thursday evening for an OBS thread. 00z/23 HRRR/RGEM/most recent 18Z/22 EC all favorable for NYC measurable by 7A Friday. Marginal cause of possible melting between the time of the snowfall and the ob. Am done for the night.

Monitor the RGEM... it's scoring BIG over all models since 06z/21 for the freezing rain that is occurring nw NJ/ne PA across into se NYS and CT this midnight hour of early Wednesday Dec 22. It has completely accurately outperformed the too warm SPC HREF, HRRR, GFS since at least the 6z/21 cycle. ICY here in nw NJ with .06 freezing rain in the Ambient counter. The SPC HREF finally caught on with its 00z/22 cycle...too late for much added forecast value. Always been a GGEM/RGEM fan. While what happens Thursday night may mostly melt during the midday hours Christmas eve (wherever it accumulates), it's a start--best axis for accumulation...too early for me but a worthy monitor for at least something in this weak start to winter. Last post here, but thought a heads up for model performance is useful right now. Happy Holidays! Walt

For this who follow models: Any disagreement, post here. Otherwise, let this be a bit of template for the winter stuff...at least the subtle winter events- as ongoing here in NW NJ. I checked on all the models: HRDPS complete miss, the 00z/22 GFS complete miss this far northwest. EC is a start. HRRR...a concern of mine recently in winter. TOOO warm and a miss. SPC HREF terrible until finally catching on with it's 00z/22 cycle... far too late when compared to the RGEM as early as the 06z/21 cycle. The RGEM and GGEM again best on lead time and current 00z/22 cycle for temps and associated weather (ZR-). So, I'm not threading yet... but NYC may see some measurable snow around 1AM Friday. Please see attached 07z/24 hourly precip type forecast by the RGEM. GFS is trying for same, but slightly warmer=wetter for NYC. Right now the modeling is suggesting 0.5 to 1.5" snow event along and especially north of I80. That could shift for Thursday night-Friday morning. I won't thread this until sometime Wednesday night if it's still possible for NYC.

I checked on all the models: HRDPS complete miss, the 00z/22 GFS complete miss this far northwest. EC is a start. HRRR...a concern of mine recently in winter. TOOO warm and a miss. SPC HREF was terrible as well until finally catching on with the 00z/22 cycle- kind of late to the game, especially when compared to the RGEM previous cycles at least 24 hours ago. The RGEM and GGEM again best on lead time and current 00z/22 cycle. Walt 109AM/22

Very icy here in Wantage NJ...post is in NW suburbs thread.

Wantage NJ 8 S High Point NJ Icy all surfaces... soft ice on asphalt but this will surprise some folks. 0.05" of freezing rain since it began around 10P. 31.1F here. Dewpoint about 30. Thanks Walt Wed morning Dec 22 1246AM.

No sure if anyone is seeing mping reports to our southwest PHL area to near DC with spotty freezing drizzle, ice pellets and snow? Not sure about the snow but an interesting night for ice is coming I think for nw NJ.

fwiw... I think we're going to see an ice problem tonight in spots vcnty ABE-12N-BAF, cities excluded but rural areas not. Already 32.4/23.8 at 515PM here at my house in Wantage and have noticed models trending toward more ice. Presuming it -precipitates here between 05z-15z... then I think the RGEM is on it. daytime cycles HRRRX, HRRR, EC/GFS all slightly colder. Just a matter of qpf occurring. No thread: all the ice obs can be placed into the nw suburbs thread.

No thread for tonight or Christmas eve early morning... but may eventually begin OBS thread if anything looks more certain for near NYC, otherwise suggest the freezing-frozen are tucked into the NW-NE suburbs thread. This is my take upon looking at multiple model output: Best chance tonight for ice is interior MA, if precip occurs there. HRRR, SPC HREF, HRRR X favor up there. However, some other modeling allows for spotty icing all the way down to near I95 in NJ. RGEM being one of them. Because of this I add the NWS 10z ensemble for chance of spotty icing tonight---LOW chance but not zero. The period of light snow risk (less than 1") continues for Thursday night-early Friday but it too may be a non player in NYC. That's not much winter, but something. My last on this til after 5P. Have a day!

fwiw: 18 EC has spotty zr now expanded west to extreme nw NJ early Wed, and then this attached graphic is a sampler for early Christmas Eve morning... ie colder solution than the 12z counterpart and more in line with the GFS/GGEM. Whether this holds or not??? Will monitor for flurries or a period of S- into NYC around daybreak Friday (melt on contact NYC, mood snow nw of I95).

So, if I review this correctly, the southern stream is INACTIVE, lighter than normal flow along roughly 25-35N in the Pac through to the ATLC, but above normal speed Aleutians to the Canadian USA border. IF that's a correct read, I want to be looking for a strengthening of the jet near 30N, which if this were to eventually occur with a WAVE breaking ridge off the west coast, our chances for something in the southern stream would increase with eventual -NAO cold air damming (CAD) benefits. For now as I see it, we just cant tone down the strength of the short wave jet stream energy packets (500MB vorticity centers) in the northern USA. Fingers crossed that there is so much we don't know, that this pattern will eventually evolve-respond to permit at least 10" of seasonal snow in NYC and 25" out here in nw NJ. Those are my goals now... which I hope we can achieve by March 15 2022.

Thanks Don... !

Positive snow depth change all related to the 24th-25th... one cycle GFS change... just aint easy to rely on single member guidance beyond a few days. This is about 6-8 days away and big snow on 06z cycle for MA has shifted north on this 12z/19 GFS cycle.

I've seen a lot of references to the fast Pacific flow. Can someone point me to a chart that shows the previous 4 weeks of anomaly that is referenced. 200MB? 500MB? Thank you.

Probably a good time for me to chime in.. I originally, when it first came out, was favorable to the CFS but in the last year or so, I do not see any value in relying on the CFS for any range in winter. If someone has stats that oppose my impression, let ir rip. Thanks, Walt