wdrag

They might allude too these in their heavy snow discussions... I just don't read those - no time. Yes, it would be cool to see those stats. If they have them, they might be fluid (sorry, didn't mean it that way, maybe should have said, snoid). In other words as sample sizes grow the stats change.

Sorry... you're way ahead of me on programming and I cannot help. You might want to write NWS EMC-NCEP. Someone there might be able to assist.

Good morning everyone, As noted above the EC has temporarily (hmmmm-do we remember about 4-5 days before this top 10r just past?) dropped the ball. GFS now closer. V16 not posting due to data flow problems with an unknown (to us, or at least me) return. As noted above the UK unreliable but on. What I think, and I'll attach as a placeholder for WPC, is that we're still on... with atmospherics needing to sort out the myriad of disturbances and bring us a little more consensus (or is the consensus too many short waves and a relatively flat but cold westerly flow?). One thing that's changed since the thread inception. Great Lakes 500MB troughing has put much more stock in the first disturbance carving into the northeast Friday, and holding back on the 7th-8th. That would probably negate sub 14F cold into NYC by the 9th, but not necessarily beyond as modeling persists with anomalous cold from the Great Lakes to the Northern Plains beyond Valentines Day. One of these disturbances coming through between now and the 19th 'should' become a substantial northeast wintry weather event and draw in a pretty decent cold shot. So, since the ensmbles and modeling are flipping and uncertain, I keep the thread alive as is, with doubts about wind and temps meeting thread options by the 9th but not a shut down yet, in my mind. Snow is definitely on the table (aside from current on going at this 6AM writing, and the 5th 1" potential for the I84 corridor for which I may eventually start an OBS thread I84?). I do think we'll see some sort of snow here in NYC 7th or 8th- but will be corrected by reality. Not every thread works out... this one may be that. Too much uncertainty as of now.

Am not adjusting anything in this thread headline til at least 630A Wednesday. EC seems a little robust, but we're getting down to D5-6 so it's got life. GFSv16 is right there with the EC. Keep at it... will review again Wednesday morning.

I didn't google but am sure it's related to water content and light passing through.

Looking back: This was on the thread at least back to the 25th, (not as a top 10 snowstorm). EPS was initially steadfast for 4 days, then around Thursday, all the models for some reason dropped the primary threat axis considerably far south, so much so that I was wondering if this would be a prolific advance EPS bust. Thereafter, modeling started edging north, I think around Friday. The results are attached. (personally i was way to conservative NYC eastward and the snow was dry enough with enough wind going to prevent a massive wet snow related power outage situation) . Moderate coastal flooding occurred for two successive high tide cycles Monday 2/1 and minor on Tuesday 2/2. Kuchera snowfall on the EC and GFSV16 (para) was helpful in focusing the potential for up to 30" amounts. The EPS was conservative when compared to Kuchera.

Catching up now: CoCoRAHS snow amounts etc. Meanwhile...interesting here in Wantage NJ. My snowfall through 930A was 27", but my SD ~18... and looks blue in the footsteps. Plenty of water content. At least 2-3" via attached. NOHRSC analyzed snowfall, CocoRAHS water equiv and CoCoRAHS snowfall follow.

Wantage NJ (this part): 940AM report 27" will get you an SD by 1130A. S- continues to accumulate. 30F. 10A/2 This is steady snow... not snow showers. The continued accumulation only increases roof and branch snow load.

Prelim CoCoRAHS to hold the fort til i get back at 11. Note the big qpf bullseye in NNJ... modeling had that. Also the big snows there. I give the Kuchera method some credit, even if some on our forums don't like it. It's helpful and was a cue for me in the Dec storm and again this one... allows me to be more confident on the higher end. GFS V16 and NAM did very well on this event, I thought. EC was very close as well.

fwiw... 3/4S- here in Wantage at 740A.

Good to know! Thanks... sort of suspected. I feel we sort of got lucky late yesterday that the wind blew the snow off the trees/wires and that it wasn't a 32-33F snow instead a 30F snow. So those are immediate considerations ahead. Hopefully all the snow melts slowly without multiple big rains in spring. Certainly going to keep the snow on the ground here NYC west and North for another two weeks, despite melting. Lets' see what happens V16 is north of the EC op... no lock. MOS has us in NYC down to 16 on morning of the 9th.

Clear snowboard every 6 hours only, or max snowfall in the midst of a 6 hr period if snow changes to rain-/sleet. .SD is the daily 7A report. CocoRAHS likes the 1 day max SD for their report. I see both ways, two different sets of users and I lean 6 hourly because of two factors. Many more commercial and traveling users for the 6 hourly that dictates work and travel requirements. that assist our daily commerce, whereas the 1/day is nice for climate but does not account for wind/melting settling. Not going into scenarios due to time constraints but I hope we can agree two sets of users. I'll get a snow depth up here after my 10A clearing of driveway. btw, am definitely over 25" since the 3AM report at least another half inch. I've seen some prelim qpf from CoCoRAHS..several reports 2.3-2.8" in NJ. Will post all at 10A.

I have my doubts as well, BUT!! I can''t be sure. I can tell you I'm confident of my 25... I will post a CoCoRAHS summary - two day at 10AM. That's what i would use as official. NWS filters data as best it can in the hurried mode of posting the snowfall data, while doing many other duties, including answering phones. I have NOT seen PHI post 32", so it's a little dissapointing that it is out there. Mendham, 30". We know 25-30 up in these parts... You want some pix? I went up and down my driveway with a snowblower 3x yesterday and will proceed again here at 8AM, but the road? Not yet plowed so i go nowhere.

While the I84 corridor I think is going to see areas of 1-4" new snow after 7A today through Wednesday morning in increasingly unstable lapse rates, I could see NYC picking up an inch or 2 of wet snow the next 24 hours as well (after 7AM today).

fwiw: I think another 1-4" between now and sunrise Wednesday in the increasingly unstable most lapse rates, periods of snow and flurries. Also Friday morning: A possible inch in the WAA ahead of the cold front.

615AM/2: no change. Added some WPC ~05z/2 graphics for the event on 1/7. Chance we'll be watching the Super Bowl either during a snow event (rain e LI?) or cleaning up from whatever occurs. Multiple ensembles have something but whether it's a coastal low (probable) or just a strong cold front is debatable. The snow amount range listed suffices, despite the the EC multiple cycles heavier. This give this opportunity a most probable start.

No change to the 2/6-9 thread. Not starting anything for 2/11-12, 2/14 but more opportunities in some of the ensembles. A nice start to Feb, which tends to have our biggest snowstorms according to a number of sources including Kocin-Uccellini and Stu Astro quoted from an email exchange on another forum yesterday. From Louis Uccellini and Stu Ostro below (excerpts) of an email discussion on another forum. So Paul (who also grew up on LI hearing the same thing) and I explored this in our Climatology Chapter (Chapter 2) in the Northeast Snowstorm monograph. The monthly distributions for snowfall greater than 4" and snowfall greater than 12" in Fig 2-11 on page 25 for 5 cities. From DC to Boston, all 5 cities show a Feb max for greater than 12" with less obvious maxima for the second category: greater than 4". Our review for the 1949 through 1999 is consistent with your more extensive analysis. We also included this finding in our summary (pp 233-234) that February is indeed the month for the "big snows" in the major metropolitan areas along the East Coast. Really glad to see that you have mined the RSI data over the same period and really nailed the magnitude of this signal. Would also like to know where you plan on publishing these results in case Paul and I ever get back to updating the monograph. Also should note here that we analyzed the background "climate" signals for the big snows along the East Coast in Chapter 2. We emphasized there that the NAO was the only climate/larger scale index that showed a large correlation (and significant) with East Coast Snows; especially south of Boston/New England area. The negative NAO is a useful signal to track as that type of pattern appears to effectively lock in the cold air needed along the coastal plains; and also lends itself to a split flow regime upwind that not only sets up the ingredients for these storms but does so in a slower mode (Heaviest snows usually associated with slower moving storms). Lastly I should note that last winter was not so good for us as the NAO remained positive the entire winter! From Stu Ostro below plus his RSI graph.

Data suggests this is/was a top 10 snowstorm for the region of NYC west through NJ and sw to Allentown. I spot checked calendar day records via XMACIS for NYC CP, Allentown, and Sussex NJ. If there need to be corrections, please let me know. NYC CP for 2/1/21 14.8" not only[ a daily record, but ranked #10 highest. POR back to 1869. Allentown for 2/1/21 22.4" not only a daily record but ranks top 2 or 3 depending on your data interpretation,-basically behind January 23ish, 2016 and ahead of January 9, 1996. Their 2 day is 26.9, ditto again #2 or 3 depending on your interp. POR back to 1912. Sussex NJ 2 day (used my 25.0) but thats unofficial and subject to downgrade. Probably around 5th-9th heaviest event. POR back to 1893. All of this in the Period of Record (POR).

Mostly time dated (not up to date) but I'm sure you'll see something in the Mt Holly updated statement by sunrise. From their 1220AM issuance. Mendham 30.0 in 0720 PM 02/01 Public Mount Arlington 28.5 in 0959 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Randolph 25.8 in 0700 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Marcella 22.5 in 0930 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter 2 NNE Brookside 22.5 in 0845 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Lake Hopatcong 22.0 in 0710 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Millington 20.0 in 1037 PM 02/01 Public Montville 20.0 in 0930 PM 02/01 Public Lincoln Park 18.5 in 1047 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter

Good morning (Feb 2)!b Wantage NJ (this part) 25.0". still 3/4s-. 30.5F. sticking to trees now that the wind has dished considerably and very little drifting now. Another report after 7A.

ABE 22.5 through 7P is ~# 6 two day snowfall.

I plan to do two day CoCRAHS snow maps tomorrow around 10A. Have a night. Walt

Wantage NJ, this part... 19.7" at 8tP. Still moderate to heavy small flake snow. Temp up to 29.3F.

This part of Wantage NJ 15.5" at 415P, with 3" past 75 minutes ending 415P. 26.1F rising slowly. SD 14 due to drifting and packing. Mostly small flake snow now.

Wantage NJ 4sw 3PM report. 12.5 total. SD 11.5. Packing-drifting. uneasy measure... certainly an inch hour + since 11A with max vsby 1/4MI small to medium raining flakes! Love it. 25.2F and rising slowly. Walt Next report around 6P.