wdrag

7 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

University of Memphis 1979-1986 Awarded B.S. Degree in Physical Geography with an Environmental Science Concentration and a Geology Minor in 1981. Obtained post-graduate experience in Environmental and Urban Planning Resource Management from 1984 to 1986. Highlights - Masters of Fellowship Award-only awarded to one graduate student in all 17 graduate schools-twice awarded for independent research and high GPA average. President of Gamma Theta Upsilon National Honor Society in 1981. Deans List awarded-1981. Technical Background - Air/Remote Sensing, Quantitative Analysis, GIS Systems, Water Quality Analysis, including Hydrogeological Studies, and Urban Land Use Studies.

 

Love this- I trust you.  I just need to think the less dire side of what will happen... not quite as severe so I dont get swept up in my own world.  Balanced with other input. 

I'll be interested in the PHI AFD late today and their EM briefing page where these possibilities-likelihoods in my opinion should be spelled out.  If they occur as we expect...everyone has been prepared. If not spelled out and they occur, then we have a communications problem since some non human modified guidance is guiding us to serious issues.  This is where I like science AI some day. 

Not Sandy.  but a big impact player.

Thank YOU!  Very good post of the options...

Fwiw: Texas now 40,000 meters out. Going up. 

2 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

this map says it all. Notice the precip over the Poconos/LV. The snowpack  will not hold in the precip, its already saturated enough now. The Delaware River will rise ten  feet or more in less than 6 hours on Wednesday morning. The tributaries like the Lehigh River will make the flooding  even worse as the snow pack will be completely erased. Little or no sublimation will take place as a result of this type of snowmelt. Fog would have really helped us out but the warm SE winds will melt the crap out the snow before evaporation can take place. IMHO, that is a major game changer because several times during a winter season, a good fog will slowly destroy a snow pack. This time no such luck. The soil profile horizons are supersaturated completely from  the A Horizon all the way to the C horizons. Springs are really flowing heavily right now (Shale soils especially)  as the ground is frozen only a  few inches and not in feet like it should be. I expect major flooding. Anyone doubt me, I am a NRCS certified hydrologist. Simply stated, there is no room from water to be stored- its all going to runoff. Better get your waders on.

Hi... I like it.  NRCS?  

In any case... my only concern is that mixed temps over the snowpack may not pass 50 or if they do, not be 50+ for more than 6 hours over snow depth 8+... I kind of see that in the plan view guidance before and after midnight. sort of looks to me like where there is 8+ snow cover, we only lose 75% and the remaining 2" hold a lot of water... You're the hydrologist.  My concerns are similar though I dont have any expertise on river rises outside of having produced warnings.

I value what you've said. fwiw... I'm going to have to use NERFC/PHI forecast stages. Temps/qpf will ultimately dictate.

Whatever doesn't go Wed morning, might complete the melting cycle Fri night, but even there mostly chilly temps except for maybe 6 hours?

21 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Ahhh, I now see what you meant about the slider bar, which I wasn't using.  I simply clicked on the "entire period" button and up popped the graphic I copied/pasted in this thread, which does say through 1/13/24.  However if one tries to use the slider bar, one only gets the first 3 days to work and it's grey after that.  This is a problem for this page, as users will obtain info they think is for flooding through 1/13, when it's not.  One other minor point: the ensemble river flooding graphic you posted doesn't note anywhere on the graphic what timeframe the graphic is for (it only gives the start time, not the end time).  Again something that should be fixed. 

I send emails to the WFO webmaster a couple of times per year with minor issues like this, since you may not have noticed, but I occasionally dive into deep details, lol (the webmaster is the one they recommend contacting on the NWS-Mt. Holly webpage, but this one might be better sent to MARFC as you were suggesting, since it looks like the office just "hosts" that page from them) and I always get a reply and sometimes an answer. 

I still recall asking in 2016 if they could start doing snowfall forecast and accumulation maps regionally, instead of just maps for each WFO and the reply was they don't do that, but he'd pass the comments along and a few years later they appeared (my guess is more than a few folks made requests like that).  

Hi... you saw my last post of how guidance is posted to answer your questions-impressions.  

Here's the MARFC answer on D4-9. Please accept this. 

I hope I've closed the loop on all your concerns. If not, please let me know.  Thanks. 

----

Walt, 

fwiw... 12z/8 snow depth change is slowing growing via the GEFS.  00z cycles of CMCE-EPS are similar.  This is leaning me to a two storm single thread... but no final yet. IFFF the 12z OP EURO VEERS off course ( a new course) I drop the 16th-17th event.  

Also... that event could end up wet LI and snowy I84.  I think it will occur, and then the cold comes in , with secondary CFP (snow shower) bringing on more significant below normal temps after the 20th.  I 'think' but could be wrong, that we dry out after the 17th for 10 days. 

This is at least a cue... not an answer but something to shape the future. 

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I wonder how real that upslope aspect to the rains are inland. I know those SE winds will be bringing tons of moisture. If so that'll just add to the huge flood threat. 

Could--

am taking these numbers verbatim more pore less and let reality direct.  We only have a 12 hour winedow. It will pound and fortunately most of the melting should begin during the night but residual runoff Wednesday morning will be impressive. I foresee lots of flooded basements in NNJ.  I am even worried here in SC.  The snow may hold a lot of the water in the interior of NYS/ne PA and prevent major flooding but I'm not betting. Please reference the Snow water equiv map posted earlier...at least 1" of water to melt in NNJ near Passaic County I think. 

Added the 12z/8 run for 24 hr qpf...SPC HREF--please reference the legend.  I like this and it matches multiple model bands of heaviest qpf which looks to me like 1.5-3.25" with the heaviest over NNJ.  I checked minimum wind gusts and all generally 50-55 MPH Delmarva-coastal NJ and LI 00z-07z/10.  I dont want to hammer the wind too much more right now. I'm certain of power outages. but how extensive?  I see the NAM BL wind is 45kt at 06z/10... that's very large.  LI and se New England coast should have pretty significant problems. Discuss and add on.  Texas now up to 19000 power outages as the eastward and then northeast ward march of power outages has just started. Is it continuous across multiple states? Smokies should feel this late tonight-tomorrow morning. 

Waiting til 350P.  Best way to go seems to be a 12-13 thread. Ensembles previously--all 3 major global had a snow event the 16th... and this far out only 1-2".  I think we can wait till 350PM. 

Snow water equivalent...alot of this in NJ e PA will melt by Noon Wednesday. Lot of potential water for the rivers wherever 2-3" of qpf occurs on top of that NJ snow water equiv. 12Z/8 Modeling and BOM is favoring I think the I287 area...correct me if Im wrong. 

Jan 6-7 CoCoRaHs rainfall-snowfall data, plus NOHRSC snowfall. Click for clarity if you wish.

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

Always like a visible satellite pic day after a snowstorm.

does that fit snowman19 nada east of I287?  I'm doing cocorahs now.  I need to understand reality.

Good morning again,

I keep thinking about what is ahead.

Let me see what CPC does at 330PM, but pretty sure at that time I will post a dual storm thread 12-13 (similar to tomorrow) and then the colder wintry one for the 16th.  It's that one that possibly shuts off major storms here for a week or 10 days to get us below normal temps and freeze up the river flows.  I need more time and am off line til at least 1030. Thanks, Walt

SPC HREF under Fire: go to gust potential and make sure you keep it on MIN gust... that will be realistic.  Looks potent at 00z/10 especially Delmarva. The idea is to use conservative predictors far in advance.  

Adding one more thought on Tue night winds:  I've seen stronger predicted wind gusts for other storms so we will see power outages, uproots etc... I'm always a little less than ideally certain on what happens.  I think the idea is have cell phones charged and if you have a home generator, enough gas to power... and if nothing happens that affects you---MUCH better outcome.  There will  be wind damage and uproots but few leafed trees.  So... I dont have quite the feel-confidence I'd like for the overall extensiveness of the wind problem.   We will know by this time Wednesday. 

Friday night-Saturday morning: No thread til I can get organized time here at home but certain will get one going by Wednesday.  Right now I think we should concentrate on this Tuesday night's 9 hour excessive rain-wind.  it looks likely that Poconos-I84 high terrain late Friday get a shot of snow-sleet, then heavy rain and possible wind damage Friday night which continues the flood threat in the northeast. Gusty winds 40-55 MPH in the wake of the storm over the entire northeast USA lingers through this coming weekend. Another tough event that impacts all of us in some way..either flooding or power.

Next Monday night-Tuesday (1/15-16) looks like a period of snow or a snow storm for at least I95 west but no thread yet.  Uncertainty.

I agree with albedoman post.  I'll be checking my drains today, getting a pool pump out with a hose for extricating water Tuesday night if this comes to pass.  I won't be surprised at a gravity wave that will modulate the heaviest rain zones but also assist wind damage.  The idea, life will have to adjust Tuesday night Wednesday.  

Added a graphic of ensemble predictions of flooding up in our area.   That's just the NWS flood forecast points.  ALWAYS...this is predicated on the ensemble anticipated rainfall-snowmelt.  That ensemble rainfall is 2.5".  Note if another inch occurs next Friday night-Saturday the Passaic at Pone Brook would be in moderate or major flood through next weekend. Again, this is my own take on the modeling and not a NWS warning.  If the rain is less, it's not as dire.

So tomorrow morning we'll get the thread title updated to include the OBS for storm 2, add a two day CoCoRahS total and believe it or not, I think there will be some reports of snow and sleet in NJ, NYS/EPA and se NYS/CT midday Tuesday as the system begins.  Not much more that I can add regarding rain/wind and its impacts. 

25 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Ahhh, I now see what you meant about the slider bar, which I wasn't using.  I simply clicked on the "entire period" button and up popped the graphic I copied/pasted in this thread, which does say through 1/13/24.  However if one tries to use the slider bar, one only gets the first 3 days to work and it's grey after that.  This is a problem for this page, as users will obtain info they think is for flooding through 1/13, when it's not.  One other minor point: the ensemble river flooding graphic you posted doesn't note anywhere on the graphic what timeframe the graphic is for (it only gives the start time, not the end time).  Again something that should be fixed. 

I send emails to the WFO webmaster a couple of times per year with minor issues like this, since you may not have noticed, but I occasionally dive into deep details, lol (the webmaster is the one they recommend contacting on the NWS-Mt. Holly webpage, but this one might be better sent to MARFC as you were suggesting, since it looks like the office just "hosts" that page from them) and I always get a reply and sometimes an answer. 

I still recall asking in 2016 if they could start doing snowfall forecast and accumulation maps regionally, instead of just maps for each WFO and the reply was they don't do that, but he'd pass the comments along and a few years later they appeared (my guess is more than a few folks made requests like that).  

Request for comment was sent to MARFC.  

The ensembles have a model run time..lower right of each panel. End time I dont need because whatever is displayed has to satisfy.  Ensembles are 10 day and each day is on the X axis. Looks like their river forecast officially are two day.

This is where NWS is going on AHPS...new link below. Copy into browser and check.

https://preview.water.noaa.gov/#@=-96.5556541,37.7326036,3.54063&b=topographic&g=obsFcst,1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!1!0!0!0!0!0,0.5,1!1!1!1!0,0,0&ab=0,0,#D94B4A,1,1,1,#cccccc,1,0,0,#B243B1,1,0,0,#98E09A,1&a=hydrologic,0.35&s=0,0,0.9,0.9&n=false,#72afe9,0.9,0,0.9,0,0.9&p=false,0.75,0,7,0,1,2023,11,24,0&d=0,0,1,1,1,1,1,1,#006EFF,1,#006EFF,1,#006EFF&q=

Play with it. Cursor over. 

I've posted just this week regional snowfall forecast maps... several times. example.attached.  

Regional accum maps were posted this morning from LSR but something smooth, is only once in a while for a big big storm. We might see one tomorrow.  However, I just dropped one in from NOHRSC.  

Later,

Walt

I've attached the flood watch just issued by Mt Holly. 

Wantage_ this location 8 =s High Point NJ. My final will be 13.4" over 24 hours. Still some S- here but I doubt if it adds anything noticeable, especially with compacting ongoing at a temp of 34.

43 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

The graphic I posted (quoted above) says, "through 1/13/24" right at the top of the graphic...

So the short of it for me, it doesn't work past day 3 using the slider bar, or if it does, you have to wait til a certain time of the day. I jnever use the slider bar. 

I'll send a note to the MARFC and see if they give me a reply.

My recommendation: Please click on the river forecast point of interest and then use the scroll bar to the right to see all the info provided for that forecast point including ensemble river response, ensemble qpf (when it was imported for use) etc. 

Thanks,

Walt

3 minutes ago, Logan11 said:

Yeah Helderberg Mountains (really hills) west of Albany, a northeast extension of the  Catskills geologically speaking. I'm just off the 'Long Path' .. hiking trail. That goes from the GW Bridge northward to here amd crosses the App Trail around Schunemunk or thereabouts. 

Challenging!  Thanks, Walt

I have looked at guidance through the end of the month and so the 6" value I posted for top 10 January may end up 2" in error but thats what I came up with...a "chance" for a top 10 Jan water equivalent wise. 

If we dont exceed 2" in CP this next event on 1/9-10, then 6" for January seems less likely.  

22 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks for all the info/insights, but I still am curious about the difference, as the RFC forecast I posted clearly says through 1/13, so it's not cut off on 1/10.  IMO, discrepancies like that are not good to have unless there's a really good reason for it (like the forecasts are simply different - but if they are, the NWS should explain that so users aren't confused).  

Most sure what you';re looking at... just saw the lager Pine Brook in minor heading for moderate on 1/10 but nothing bout 1/13.  Please send me what you're looking at that says 1/13 =thanks. I have to prep some pea soup so ill be away at times. 

11 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Guess snowman19 was right. No one in Westchester or Rockland 6+ at least based on that map.

May want to wait til tomorrow morning addition of D2. 

1 minute ago, Logan11 said:

Thanks for the great posts. I only slept about three hours and then had to shovel out the plowed in end of the driveway.  Plow guy is coming when its done to do the remaining 500 feet. Maybe an afternoon nap. LOL

Since I have no emoji's...thanks... these are what we like to enjoy. Gotta have some fun. Thagts a heckuva long driveway!!! Sticks I suspect, just like up here near the Appalachian Trail.