wdrag

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

So, as of 7:00 pm we had officially changed to rain and the temp was up to 34F and my last measurement was 2.0" on the nose, which was my exact guesstimate for the storm (even broken clocks, lol).  The last hour or two the snow was quite wet, but at least it stayed snow. 

The interesting thing was that I went out for a quick spin around 6:35 pm to see the roads and pick up takeout (Portuguese BBQ, yum) and the residential streets in Metuchen were all fully snow covered and treacherous, while the county/state type roads (531/501 and 27) were partially covered/slushy and somewhat slick, and the major roads like 1 and 287 were just wet.  Many local reports in the area of accidents, as I'm guessing people maybe forgot how to drive in the snow.  Also, around 6:50 pm I noticed it started sounding like rain on my windshield even though it was still snowing and 10 minutes later it was all rain.  Oh well.  But I'm ecstatic we even got 2" when so many, including the NWS, were predicting little to no snow for the 95 corridor, including in our area.  Hope there's some left tomorrow (I think there will be).  

Road treatments make a big difference. Suspect Metuchen was saving money? or no people to run the trucks or their policy? I know county DPW's and their subcontractors get onto this stuff pretty quick. That's the way your report sounded. State and County on it. 

7 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

New City looks like a postcard,,,,my son just asked " when are we going for a walk " 

and you said?

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Here are the 7pm snowfall amounts from our Climate sites.

 

Newark, NJ (EWR)- 0.4

NYC (Central Park) - 0.2

LaGuardia (LGA)- 0.2

John F Kennedy Airport (JFK) - 0.1

Bridgeport, CT (BDR) - T

Islip Airport (ISP) - T

 Well done! The record will probably keep on going but at least a little snow fell.

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Steady light to occasionally mod snow. Small flakes, and snow is powdery. Just measured 1.6" 28°

I find it hard to believe we'll exceed 10". my guess is we be satisfied with 5-8" and get out of here. Its least it was slippery for a few hours.  icing overnight then back to another inch or two of snow tomorrow, I hope. 

Wantage NJ 740'MSL. 1.7" snowing steady light. 27/26

1.2" this part of Wantage at 550PM. still small flake snow., 27/26 light northeast wind.

10 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

You can see the northerly flow pushing that line south. The cold high aint playing. Once the low is to the east everyone flips to snow.

Hold on...  I hope you're right but when the max UVM passes by, especially after the first radar bright band, I suspect slight warming aloft will change to rain.  I am rooting for snow and the EC and some other modeling has hopes for brief pockets of moderate mixed snow-rain/sleet through midnight on LI.  

The good news, its not an easy wet snow give in to rain. 

0.5" at this Wantage Nj location 440P. SB in earnest around 230P.  still small flake.

The thump coming up on radar south to s NJ- Dover DE is our evening lift. Am hoping that where sleet and freezing rain it can mix back to snow around I78 and keep us snow longer I80 north.  Even though sleet is coming to ne NJ...  the snow part might be done, but you might get your self a healthy sleet accum over a 3 hour period?  slippery.

Heavy snow discussion is out for NNJ.  doubt 430P.  Probably not east of I95. 

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Columbus Circle webcam for anyone interested:

 

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/newyork/columbuscircle/?cam=columbus_circle

Booked it... thank you!

I can't keep up with the forum..but I've checked MT Holly reports and I'm hearing slight grass cover in North Brunswick and Edison in northeast Nj.

5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

According to Columbus Circle webcam, snow has started in Central Park.

Please keep us posted on webcam at 7PM and 9P.  After that's for sure all rain til maybe 10A Sunday when its too late. 

Haven't see PHL and BWI reports but my guess at least 0.1" there---just via sleet. 

1 hour ago, mikeysed said:

Any account for elevation being 1300? Sussex should get about 10. I figure another 2 on the mountain

I always worry about sleet... HRRR is seeming to lock sleet to just up to Stanhope NJ-Scranton PA at midnight... if so,  you're good for 6-9" by midnight.  EC very very steady cyclically on qpf  near .7 today and .1 or .2 tomorrow morning.  Should be some freezing rain-sleet-freezing drizzle in SC 1A-7A Sunday then bands of mainly light snow for 6 to 10 hours and another inch or so on the snow cover but pavement probably mostly wet tomorrow.  I hope you get a foot. I'd visit but already take too much time away from family with this computer stuff.  You're about 20-30 min from where I live.  Go to Granny's for Breakfast on SR23 in Hamburg.  Very good. 

2 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Left Southern Morris County. Currently at Crystal Springs Resort. Expecting 12" on the mountain. Room is at ~1300 elevation, mid mountain. Flurries and 27 degrees. Plus my 12" ruler

12"?  I dont have a forecast that high for SC.  May occur but worried about sleet freezing rain mid-7A, then back to snow. I hope we can get you 10". We'll know. by 10 or 11 tonight.

Took care of the OBS conundrum in the edited title and added tags sleet, obs. Thanks for understanding the idea of continuity on this dual storm thread.

Am on the road but prefer organized as one thread.   Thats been the thread all along. Snowing east of PHL. Probably won’t last long

Prefer ones here so we can keep this storm as I package

3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Pruf, Snowy19 or anyone else, I realize that some models sniff things out and pick up on things better than others but wouldn't  the HRRR which is now inside its wheelhouse or another short range model at least show signs of this as well ? Are any other short range models hinting at this ?

HRRR has no acc NYC.  Most models and BOM less than 1/2" if anything NYC.  We'll soon know.  

Model warm nose is minor early and can be overcome by 1-2 hours of Strong UVV in the dendrite zone, if that thump occurs this far northeast of the low.  I am sure we'll see lots of sleet/snow reports on here by 430PM.  

25 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

Understood that 80% of this forum is going to rain, but are we doing obs here? 

25/18 currently. Best of luck to those of us who see the goods. 

Yes...obs here... coming soon. already sleeting Baltimore area. I think snow issuing to break out mid morning PA. 

Regarding Tue-Wed; No changes.  

Right now ensemble guidance is projecting about 8 river forecast points from Philly to ne NJ moderate flood, and 3 potentially major.  Additionally if 3.5" qpf occurs by 00z/11, and we add another inch around the 13th (ensemble total 4.5)... The Passaic at Pine Brook would probably be at a minimum in moderate flood 10th-15th.  All this predicted on how much rain.  Ensembles predictions of river response for NJ is pretty good. That same guidance is giving a bunch of streams in CT minor flood. 

No plans for a 13th snow event post, though it looks like I84 corridor can do decent, but not the city.  715A/6

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

If the new 6z op Euro is correct that’s what it going to happen, it has warm nose mixing issues all the way up into Rockland/Bergen counties. It cut snow totals even more than 0z

Too close to sure for me. 

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully we can keep it under 1.0" to preserve the record.

NYC will probably preserve the record... 1/4-2" doesn't mean NYC will get 2".  I definitely think some sort of measurable slop has to occur there but whether the observers catch it as intended in the snow measuring guidance... within their primary shift duties?  Have no clue. 

An announcement for those who use banding pages provided by the grace of FSU-Bob Hart. Now fixed.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Just a note: This thread will serve as the obs thread for this afternoon-Sunday obs and also continue comments on the Tuesday-Wednesday event.  A new OBS thread for Tuesday-Wednesday will issue 7A Tuesday.

fwiw--- I think NYC-LI is going to see some wet sloppy slushy snow acc on cars/grass 4P-10P and whether it is observed at CP I'm not sure but I expect 1/4-2" because of bursts of moderate snowfall 1/2MI vsby.  That despite temps above freezing, which I think will have to cool to 33 in snow after sunset.  Too much modeling is showing snow NYC...but temps will determine whether we can measure there. Am noting dewpoints not very far from freezing through this entire event for NYC north.  So--I may be very wrong but it's not worth the risk of a nil call being wrong for travelers.

I myself will continue commenting on this event in this original NY eve, two storm thread for consistency as the two storms = feed each other the results by Jan 10. It will also demonstrate how effective (or not) use of consensus modeling (ensemble blends) can be for preparation purposes out to 10-days in advance and how CPC hazard tools are probably underutilized.