bluewave

The La Nina background pattern will be in full effect next week. One of the strongest Southeast Ridges on record for late June in the forecast. Could even rival the ridge and heat experienced in late June 2021. I would take a repeat of January 2022 in a second if we can get the Pacific Jet to back off a bit in coming seasons. But the current WPAC warm pool is still running near record levels.

You can see how the ASOS right on the bay at LGA held the 95° day count down there in 2010 with all the westerly flow compared to Mineola which was more inland away from the water. Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010 95° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 21 NY MINEOLA COOP 20 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 18 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 18 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 17 NJ HARRISON COOP 16 NJ CRANFORD COOP 14 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 12 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 12 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 11 NY BRONX COOP 11 CT DANBURY COOP 10 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10

2010 had the most 95° days at Mineola right before the station shut down.

1955 finished in 3rd place for 95° days there but was surpassed last summer.

The circulation patterns have changed since the 1950s. So areas east of the Hudson have more onshore flow influence and rainfall. So the most impressive records for heat in recent years have been found in NJ. We can’t use NYC to compare to those days since they changed how the measure temperatures in 1995 under the trees instead of out in the open in the 1940s and 1950s.

While those 1950s heatwaves were intense while they were occurring, they didn’t t have the lasting power of extended stretches of 95°+ heat that has become common during the 2010s and 2020s. This is the top 11 for 95° days at Newark. 1955 only had 17 days reaching 95° in 1955. Newark has exceed that number twice since 2021. Last summer Central NJ had 21 days which surpassed 2002 and 1955. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993 25 0 2 2010 21 0 3 2022 20 0 - 1988 20 0 - 1944 20 0 4 2021 18 0 5 2012 17 0 - 2011 17 0 - 2002 17 0 - 1955 17 0 6 1949 16 0 7 2005 14 0 - 1953 14 0 8 2016 13 0 - 1999 13 0 - 1991 13 0 - 1987 13 0 9 1994 12 0 - 1983 12 0 - 1966 12 0 10 2018 11 0 - 1973 11 0 11 2024 10 0 Time Series Summary for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 21 2 2 2002 17 0 3 1955 16 8 4 1953 14 0 5 2021 13 0 - 2018 13 1 - 2016 13 2 - 2010 13 4 - 1988 13 0 - 1949 13 0

That’s only for places near the immediate South Shore and Eastern Long Island. Most of the area away from the beaches and sea breeze influence have experienced all-time numbers of 90° days this decade especially closer to Central NJ. So the heat is much more widespread than it was back in the 1950s. Nearly every year this decade someone in NJ is getting to 40 days reaching 90°. Those instances were few and far between in the older era.

It’s been a very rough stretch for the areas around the Gulf extending up into places like Asheville last year.

I come at it from a different point of view. ACE is only relevant if storms are making landfall. We can remember 2010 with the very high ACE and the dominant OTS storm tracks. 1992 was a very low ACE season but we had Andrew. But the most significant seasons feature high ACE and landfalls. So sometimes we get caught up in seasonal forecasts of overall ACE. But my focus is landfalling storms. That being said, we have been in a record landfalling hurricane pattern in the Gulf since 2017. The Gulf SSTs are currently the 2nd warmest on record for this time of year. So I will consider this a big season if the Gulf sees another major hurricane landfall by the end of the season no matter what the ACE finishes at.

This could be our first decade since the 1950s with 3 years reaching 100 in June and we are only 6 years in.

Very strong La Niña spring pattern as this was the 2nd warmest spring since 1895 behind the 2011-2012 La Niña for the CONUS. Contiguous U.S. Average Temperature March-May March-May 2012 56.17°F 131 March-May 2025 54.09°F 130 March-May 1910 54.07°F 129 March-May 2004 53.98°F 128 March-May 2000 53.90°F 127 March-May 1934 53.73°F 126 March-May 2016 53.66°F 125 March-May 2024 53.63°F 124 March-May 2007 53.50°F 123 March-May 2017 53.49°F 122

This may be one of the first times that we have seen a 100°+ signal from a 50 member ensemble mean over 200 hrs out.

All the local airports around NYC are too close to the water to capture the highest urban maximum temperatures. This is one of the reasons that the NYC micronet was installed. ConEd could easily see from their actual electrical demand that the NYC official readings were lagging the actual usage on the warmest days. Especially with Central Park getting installed under the trees back in 1995 rather than out in a clearing like in the old days. So this lead to NYC being one of the most undersampled urban environments for heat in the USA. Most of the population in NYC doesn’t live at the cooler airports and get sea breezes. So the neighborhood micronets tells ConEd and the residents what is really going on where the most densely populated areas are.

Not iffy at all since Harrison was 93° to the NW of the Newark ASOS. The LGA ASOS is right along the Western Sound or East River. So a westerly flow there is cooler. Go a few miles south to Corona and it’s a land breeze with compressional downslope warming off the Moraine. JFK is right on the water so they need WNW flow to avoid a cooling influence.

The micronets have been very reliable. They maxed out at 94° the other day a little higher than the airports which are cooler since all 3 ASOS stations are right on the water. Go just inland from the cooler airports and that is where the warmest urban areas are. June 12th high temperatures Corona, Queens…94° Brownsville, Brooklyn….94° Newark….92° Astoria, Queens…91° LGA….90° JFK….90° BDR…90° FRG….89° HVN…89° ISP…..88° NYC….87° HPN….87°

It’s been all about wind direction along with increasing rainfall and not traffic congestion. The strongest heat during the 2020s summers have been west of the sea breeze front in NJ. Too wet with plenty of onshore flow for the 2010 and 2011 record heat to be rivaled east of the Hudson. Notice how several spots in NJ nearly tied 2010 for 90° days as recently as 2022. One spot actually eclipsed the 2010 record for 90 days in 2022. Even Newark has had sea breeze influence compared to Highstown which set the their all-time 90° day record in 2022 ahead of 2010. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ3951&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1893&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The new NYC micronet had widespread 100° heat through Brooklyn and Queens in recent years. Even in Ozone Park just NW of the JFK ASOS. My guess is that Central Park also reached 100° numerous times on the Great Lawn.

Newark had 100° heat last June in NJ on the 21st. But didn’t make it to Long Island. This was followed up by more 100° heat in August. Brooklyn and Queens made it to 100° in July 2022 along with NJ. June 2021 featured 100° heat throughout NJ, Brooklyn and Queens. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024 100 99 100 100 2023 91 96 91 96 2022 96 102 101 102 2021 103 97 99 103

While models have done well with the 6-10 day warm signals in recent years, the wind direction specifics haven’t been figured out until we have been under 120 hrs. We have had numerous 6-10 day model forecasts in recent years with deep westerly flow and 100° heat forecast onto Long Island. But as we got closer to forecast time, more onshore flow shows up. So the areas in NJ away from the sea breeze have seen the strongest heat. This is why JFK to ISP haven’t had any 100° heat since 2013. All the recent 100° heat since 2013 has been restricted to NJ and Brooklyn and Queens.

Yeah, the 500mb heights and 850mb temperature forecasts would suggest our first 100° of the season would be possible for the usual warm spots. But a wrinkle may be whether the ridge elongates too much into Canada. Notice how the models have a high over Canada and Bermuda. So there could be a subtle backdoor front nearby. If the Bermuda High wins out than the first 100° for places like Newark could be possible. But if the high to the north is too strong, then more onshore flow in later runs east of NYC and perhaps the 100° potential over interior NJ. We probably won’t know for sure until the period gets under 120 hrs out. But we should at least see mid 90s as a floor. And be could get closer to 100° if the ridge is flatter with more westerly flow.

The strong subtropical warming actually contradicts our current understanding of how the ocean temperatures have changed in the past. The strongest SST warming was expected in the subpolar oceans. But instead the western subtropical basins have seen the greatest warming. But isn’t anything new as the lack of warming in the EPAC has baffled scientists for a while now. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00839-w Strongest ocean warming expected in subpolar ocean The observed warming pattern (Fig. 1a) contradicts our understanding of how ocean temperature has changed in the geologic past. SST reconstructions covering the mid-Pliocene, the most recent time when atmospheric GHG concentrations were similar to today41, highlight the strongest large-scale ocean warming over the subpolar oceans (Fig. 1c). Comparably, warmings in subtropical regions are less pronounced, except for the subtropical extension of western boundary currents, where a poleward shift of western boundary currents contributes to a local maximum temperature increase8,9.

If we can keep the ridge from elongating too much into SE Canada in later runs, then a flatter EPS high like below will keep the flow more westerly.

Hard to tell over a week out. But the EPS mean has westerly flow. So my guess is that most of the area away from the immediate shore will see their first mid to possibly upper 90s of the season. It’s a strong signal from an ensemble mean to see a 594 DM heat dome in the East over a week out.

New SST records set for the subtropical oceans.

Sea breezes and ocean views are the prime reason that so many people love living near the shore. Back in my old hometown places on the Boardwalk are going for almost 5 million dollars. It’s why so many people from NYC come out to Long Beach during the summer. Even the West End where houses used to sell for 50 thousand back in the 1970s is pushing almost 6 million to live on Reynolds Channel. When I grew up in those days Long Beach was more like Coney Island with arcades and an amusement park on the Boardwalk. Now it has become one of the most in demand Long Island real estate markets. https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/100-Boardwalk-Unit-1001_Long-Beach_NY_11561_M99207-31637?from=srp-list-card https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/853-W-Park-Ave_Long-Beach_NY_11561_M30048-76311?from=srp-list-card