bluewave

The summer heat warms the SSTs in the NY Bight. 80°ocean temperatures during the 2020s summers have been fairly common around the peak summer SSTs. But what is different this year is the reversal in departures from the winter. Due to the record westerly flow causing upwelling, the SSTs departures to our east were the coldest in over a decade during the winter. All the years over the last decade have carried warm winter departures into the summer. This was the first reversal from close to winter 2011 departures jumping into 2020s summer departures. I guess we are lucky that we didn’t see a Mediterranean or Japan style marine heatwave around +10°. That would have given us our first mid 80s ocean temperatures at the beaches.

This has been one of the more impressive SST rebounds that we have seen from the spring into the summer. There was a significant cold pool to our east from the winter into the spring due to the record westerly flow leading to upwelling. This pattern has reversed with the persistent onshore flow and warmth this summer. The bouy east of Barnegat, NJ has a 81° water temperature today. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44091 Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.0 °F

Flooding reports running 134% more than average this year so far. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10083550/#:~:text=Meterologists use the Clausius–Clapeyron,a 1 °C rise. The equation shows how warmer air can hold more moisture, which is crucial to forecast the increased strength of storms and the higher intensity of rainfall. “A key point about this equation is that it has an exponential in there,” says Peter Stott, a climate scientist at the UK Met Office. “An exponential curve, of course, goes up more steeply the further up you get. So quite quickly as temperature increases, you get into large numbers for additional rainfall.” So, the equation points at a wetter future. But as researchers are learning, that’s only the beginning. Future storms may produce even more rain than the venerable equation

80° SSTs now just east of NJ. 15 E Barnegat Li 1630 78 80

Impressive to see the dew points approaching 80° up on Cape Cod. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KPVC&hours=72 Jul 15, 12:05 pm 81 79

Steady decline in winter below 0° low temperatures. While the 50°+ winter highs have increased at even a faster pace. So Ann Arbor is representative of many other areas.

Not sure yet at this point. But past instances of widespread 100° heat followed by 5”+ deluges usually didn’t have more widespread 100°s from NJ out to Suffolk. But it wouldn’t take much for some scattered 100° heat for the usual warm spots in NJ.

Yeah, the number of these extreme rainfalls and flooding have been steadily increasing across the entire planet. Some areas which are more arid have been experiencing rapid swings between extreme drought and flooding as the water cycle accelerates. So on the list of concerns flooding will rank very high in a much warmer world.

Yeah, each day I walk around the Tweed airport just to my west. The vegetation and grassy areas around have gradually been turning brown last few weeks. Par for the course with the dry pattern and record heat since June 1st. We have generally had under 3 inches since June 1st. The 6 days reaching 90° since June 1st is 2nd highest here from June 1st to July 14th. June 1st to July 14th Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025-07-14 2.80 0 2024-07-14 6.36 0 2023-07-14 5.29 1 2022-07-14 2.45 0 2021-07-14 7.73 0 2020-07-14 3.97 0

Those amounts along the South Shore dropped off very quickly to the east of Queens. Same up here where I got very little on the CT Shoreline and more to my NW. The lawns and grassy areas around the airport here have begun turning brown up here. The rains usually reach the South Shore areas a little later in time.

Only .5 to .6 from Massapequa out along the South Shore Suffolk. It was another case of the 1.00”+ totals staying closer to the North Shore like we often see this time of year. Remember it was August last year when LI got the 10 inch plus totals. So the 6 inch plus totals stayed to our west. Even here on the CT Shore hardly got much as the lawns are beginning to turn brown here.

The South Shore of LI only got around .5 or less same as the CT shore by me. Everything greatly weakened once east of NJ which got 6”+. NYC was the transition zone.

Only a 3 day period back in June with enough westerly flow before the dominant onshore flow pattern since.

The South Shore hardly got anything compared to the areas just inland from the coast.

Even here along the CT Shoreline we have seen a big increase in 75°+ dew point days over the last decade.

It will be interesting to see this time since we usually don’t get widespread 100° heat after these major flash flood events. This has been very monsoon-like during recent summers. First we get the widespread 100° heat followed by a 5”+ or 10”+ deluges.

At least 3 reports of 6”+ from Union County where the SPC HREF had its local max. So a good performance from the model. This almost had some PRE-like characteristics with the weak tropical low near Florida. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NJ-UN-42 Station Name: Westfield 0.8 WSW Data Explorer Observation Date 7/15/2025 6:24 AM Submitted 7/15/2025 6:26 AM Gauge Catch 6.24 in. Notes Historic rain for 4 straight hours, +1” / hour Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NJ-UN-39 Station Name: Clark Twp 0.7 SSW Data Explorer Observation Date 7/15/2025 7:00 AM Submitted 7/15/2025 7:13 AM Gauge Catch 6.12 in. Notes I submitted several significant weather reports during the storm. A multitude of water rescues were conducted by the Clark Fire Department. Daily Precipitation Report Station Number: NJ-UN-36 Station Name: Clark Twp 1.3 ENE Data Explorer Observation Date 7/15/2025 6:59 AM Submitted 7/15/2025 7:04 AM Gauge Catch 6.67 in. Notes Mostly Sunny…humid…72F

Video clips from the area…

The key to reducing the anxiety is preparedness and awareness. I was very young when my basement apartment got flooded out during Agnes in 1972. So I started paying very close attention to the weather from that point forward.

The warming atmosphere from excess CO2 holds more moisture for these extreme rainfall events. https://www.copernicus.eu/en/news/news/observer-copernicus-climate-change-service-tracks-record-atmospheric-moisture-and-sea Water vapour: the invisible amplifier of global warming In 2024 the atmosphere held more moisture than previously recorded by a large margin. Total column water vapour—the total amount of moisture in a vertical column of air extending from the surface of the Earth to the top of the atmosphere—reached 4.9% above the 1991–2020 average, far surpassing previous highs in 2016 (3.4%) and 2023 (3.3%). Water vapour is Earth’s most abundant greenhouse gas, responsible for about half of the planet’s natural greenhouse effect. Unlike other greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH4), the concentration of water vapour in the atmosphere is not directly influenced by human activities. However, water vapour concentration rises as the atmosphere warms: for every 1°C increase in atmospheric temperature, air can hold 7% more moisture. This creates a vicious cycle—warmer air absorbs more vapour, which traps more heat, further accelerating warming. Annual anomalies in the average amount of total column water vapour over the 60°S–60°N domain relative to the average for the 1992–2020 reference period. The anomalies are expressed as a percentage of the 1992–2020 average. Data: ERA5. Credit: C3S/ECMWF. “Water vapour is both a consequence and a driver of climate change,” explains C3S Director Carlo Buontempo. “In 2024, we saw this feedback loop in ‘overdrive’. Higher sea surface temperatures intensified evaporation, whilst warmer atmosphere allowed more water to be held there as vapour, adding ‘fuel’ to several extreme weather events.” The consequences are potentially disastrous. Increased atmospheric moisture can intensify storms and increase the intensity of the most extreme rainfall. The atmosphere knows no borders, so the potential effects are

Yeah, these extreme heavy rainfall events have become all too common.

Impressive performance from the SPC HREF highlighting that 6”+ max potential around Union County.

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service New York NY 558 PM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0550 PM Flash Flood Clark 40.62N 74.31W 07/14/2025 Union NJ Trained Spotter Reservoir overtopping and spilling onto nearby streets and into houses.