bluewave

Severe storms usually overperform when we have steep lapse rates and such unstable soundings.

The record WPAC warm pool and Aleutian Ridge are much more amplified than we typically see from +WPO patterns. Same goes for the new way the -PDO has played out in the 2020s. So the hemispheric expansion of the subtropical ridges are creating their own pattern.

Early split picture showing up in the data. It was a warmer than average May across the Arctic. But not as warm as 2020 was which lead to all the preconditioning that year. June was the coolest in the Arctic over the last decade. Yet the extent is currently in 1st place for lowest in early July. But the area is only 8th lowest. Area and melt pond fraction are more important this time of year than extent in trying to guess a September low. Unfortunately, the May melt pond data still hasn’t been released. This is what the statistical model uses to forecast a June September low. If I had to take an early guess, the higher area now than extent could mean that the extent will fall behind the steep 2012 drop which happened back in early August 2012. So it’s possible that the 2012 record low will hold for another year. But I want to see the May melt pond fraction first before making a final call. I will update this if the ARCUS SPIN site gets around to posting the model forecasts for September. They have been delayed in their update.

Looks like the next warm up in mid-July will be another over the top one leaving room for moisture undercutting the ridge before then.

Yeah, unusually cool and wet July 4th following the snowiest winter of the 1970s. Climatological Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - July 1978 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1978-07-01 78 58 68.0 -5.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 1978-07-02 73 55 64.0 -9.7 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 1978-07-03 70 60 65.0 -8.9 0 0 0.99 0.0 0 1978-07-04 61 56 58.5 -15.6 6 0 1.56 0.0 0 Climatological Data for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - July 1978 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1978-07-01 84 66 75.0 0.3 0 10 0.00 0.0 0 1978-07-02 78 57 67.5 -7.4 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 1978-07-03 71 60 65.5 -9.6 0 1 1.73 0.0 0 1978-07-04 65 60 62.5 -12.7 2 0 0.50 0.0 0 Snowfall Data for October 1, 1977 through April 30, 1978 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY PORT JERVIS COOP 70.5 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 68.7 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 68.0 CT DANBURY COOP 67.0 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 66.7 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 65.2 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 64.9 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 COOP 64.7 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 64.1 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 62.3 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 61.6 NJ CRANFORD COOP 60.7 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 60.2 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 59.7 NY SCARSDALE COOP 59.6 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 59.1 NJ GREENWOOD LAKE COOP 59.0 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 58.0 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 57.5 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 57.1 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 56.0 NY MINEOLA COOP 55.8 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 55.6 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 54.2 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 52.7 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 51.6 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 51.4 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50.7 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 49.1 CT GROTON COOP 48.9 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 48.5 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 48.3 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 46.5 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 45.6 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 43.5

This -PDO being driven by the warm SST anomalies from Japan to north of Hawaii since 2019 is something new for us. The pattern has lead to warmer winters and record low snowfall due to the storm track through the Great Lakes and a faster Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet. Very amplified Aleutian Ridges have become the norm. It has also resulted in the Greenland blocking linking up with the Southeast Ridge. So strong subtropical ridges across the Pacific and Atlantic basins. The previous extended -PDO interval from 2007 to 2013 was more defined by the cold pool west of North America and a weaker warm pool east of Japan. Much weaker Aleutian Ridges and no Southeast Ridge in the East. So we didn’t have the Greenland blocking linking up with the Southeast Ridge. During the extended -PDO phase from 1950 to 1976 there was also a much weaker Aleutian Ridge along with much cooler SSTs in both basins. So there wasn’t any linkage between the Greenland blocking and Southeast Ridge.

The 108° high in Mineola was in 2010. There wasn’t any data for July 2011. Then the station shut down right after that. July 4th, 1978 was the only year there with a high in the upper 50s. Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 108 0 2 2001 105 32 3 1999 103 10 - 1966 103 0 4 1988 102 50 - 1975 102 1 - 1948 102 1 5 2002 101 0 - 1973 101 0 - 1968 101 0 - 1952 101 0 6 2006 100 1 - 1993 100 8 - 1991 100 0 - 1957 100 12 - 1955 100 3 High Temperature Data for July 4, 1978 through July 4, 1978 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY MINEOLA COOP 57 CT DANBURY COOP 59 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 60 NY SCARSDALE COOP 60 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 61 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 61 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 61 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 61 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 62 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 62 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 62 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 62 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 62 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 62 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 62 NY WEST POINT COOP 62 CT GROTON COOP 62 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 62 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 63 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 63 NJ CRANFORD COOP 64 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 64 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 64 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 64

Maybe the ASOS back in 1966 wasn’t so close to the water at LGA. But not sure. The current location is right on the bay near the NW corner of the airport. Data for July 3, 1966 through July 3, 1966 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 107 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 105 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 104 NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 104 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 104 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 103 NY WEST POINT COOP 103 NY MINEOLA COOP 103 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 102 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 102 NY NEW YORK FLOYD BENNETT FIELD WBAN 102 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 102 NY SCARSDALE COOP 102 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 102 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 101 NJ PATERSON COOP 101 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 101 NY STEWART FIELD WBAN 101 NY HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY COOP 101 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 101 CT DANBURY COOP 101

Very difficult to know ahead of time when dealing with the sea breeze at JFK. Both stations in Ozone Park made it to 104°-105° on the other side of the Belt Parkway. So JFK would have done it if the sea breeze could have held off for an hour or two more.

It’s still a toss up whether we make it back to 100° this summer. Since some years with 100° in June did like 2024 and others like 2021 didn’t. Our next chance may be later in July. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 103 95 M M 103 2021 103 97 99 91 103 2011 102 108 98 88 108 1994 102 99 95 92 102 1993 102 105 100 100 105 1952 102 98 92 94 102 1943 102 95 97 93 102 1988 101 101 99 86 101 1966 101 105 95 91 105 2024 100 99 100 87 100 1959 100 93 96 93 100 1953 100 99 102 105 105 1934 100 98 90 85 100

Over the top warm up for the 4th. Climatologist49‬ ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ · 17h A large part of the western North Slope of Alaska with official forecast high temps over 90F today and tomorrow. This is borderline unprecedented if it happens. There are no weather stations in those 90F+ forecast areas though. So verification will basically be impossible. @alaskawx.bsky.social 11 66

This extreme subtropical SST warming leads to a semi-permanent -PDO +AMO pattern with amplified subtropical ridges.

Best structure on a supercell since moving up here. Very heavy downpour and gust to 44 mph. Detected some broad rotation. Jul 3, 6:05 pm 79 66 65 W 29G44

It can work both ways like we saw last summer. The record subtropical warmth and stable conditions lead to the lull in activity from late August into early September. But then it became very active later in the season.

The summer of 1966 heatwave was very short compared to our summers these days. The major heat only lasted for around 3 weeks. The summer before and after that period wasn’t very warm by today’s standards. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1966-06-23 93 61 1966-06-24 97 73 1966-06-25 85 63 1966-06-26 78 62 1966-06-27 101 68 1966-06-28 90 74 1966-06-29 90 71 1966-06-30 94 72 1966-07-01 87 71 1966-07-02 102 70 1966-07-03 105 75 1966-07-04 100 78 1966-07-05 87 74 1966-07-06 87 73 1966-07-07 93 76 1966-07-08 91 70 1966-07-09 89 67 1966-07-10 93 70 1966-07-11 96 72 1966-07-12 98 72 1966-07-13 100 77

The ridge is verifying further south toward the subtropics than the climate models have been forecasting. They theorize that this pattern is related to decreasing snow and sea ice. But I think it could be driven by the subtropics and tropics forcing a 500mb standing wave pattern. Perhaps, there is an interplay at work between all the regions which the climate models haven’t able to pick up on. In any event, the study below came out in 2014 and we have been seeing this pattern quite a bit in recent years. So the forecast from 2014 picked up in something happening in the climate system even though it’s could very well be an incomplete assessment.

The current steep -PDO drop in June was driven by the very impressive subtropical ridge which went across the whole Northern Hemisphere leading to the record subtropical SSTs.

Doesn’t look like we will be switching to a drier pattern like that’s anytime soon since the pattern has become so much wetter in the last 20 years. Flooding has been more of a concern here than drought. Models backing off the heat next week due to the tropical low moving up the coast. Makes sense since past instances of 103°-105° heat didn’t have a return to near 100° so soon. New run Old run

Tree ring studies suggest that the 1960s were rated as a 500 year drought. Something that hasn’t been able to repeat in this much warmer climate with increased moisture. So we have been spared peak highs in the 110° to 115° range which would occur here with the much warmer climate of today and 1960s drought and westerly flow. https://ocp.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/glodech/PDFs/Pederson_etal_NYCdrought_revised.pdf

This story is over 20 years old now and the tree growth has greatly increased since then. Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV (New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy. Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the equipment buried in Central Park. Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of Central Park. But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is in the shade instead of direct sunlight. Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with false information." The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top. There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way. But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet of the station. Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with visibility sensors." [NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence in the park. He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park than at the airports. Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of the vegetation." Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says its a city that deserves better. Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they deserve the best weather station money can buy." Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

Yeah, impressive 500 mb height rises to the north and east of New England during the hurricane season has been steering all the major hurricanes into the Gulf and Florida since the 1990s.

Yeah, we have been fortunate that there haven’t been any droughts of a similar magnitude to the 1960s to early 2000s during this much warmer climate era. But this comes at the cost of more warm season flooding events around our region. Plus much higher dew points even into New England. Last week was the highest June temperatures on record from Long Island right up into New England. But the lack of any strong drought helped keep the duration shorter. Still it was my highest temperatures since moving to just east of the KHVN ASOS site a few summers ago.

The summers began to warm faster in the Northeast starting in 2010. Since then the Northeast has experienced 12 out of 15 warmer to record warm summers. We are on track this summer to make it 13 out of 16. We haven’t had a really cool summer in the Northeast since 2009. All the 3 slightly cooler summers were due to the warmer climate normals. We would often get a cooler summer like 2009 after a series of warmer summers. The winter warming began to really accelerate with the super El Niño in 15-16. So the Northeast has experienced 9 out of the last 10 winters running warmer than average to record warm. This recent 24-25 winter would have only been considered average in earlier 30 year climate eras. We haven’t had a colder winter in the Northeast by historical averages since 14-15. The winter warming across the Northeast has been faster than the summer warming by several degrees.

It had to do with the radar range across the country with the new radars which were installed back then. https://www.weather.gov/okx/Tour_Introduction#:~:text=In 1993%2C the National Weather,as 13 River Forecast Centers. In 1993, the National Weather Service moved from its old office in New York City to this modernized facility in Upton. Placement of the office was governed, in part, by the range of the radar, about 250 miles. Nationally, there are 122 forecast offices like this one, as well as 13 River Forecast Centers. The NWS also operates 21 aviation support Center Weather Service Units and various National and Regional Support Centers. Click here to see all the offices and centers that make up the National Weather Service.

There has been a long and storied relationship between the NWS and Central Park observing site at Belvedere Castle. The quality control was light years ahead of what has happened since the NWS left 30 Rock in 1993. Prior to the NWS leaving for Upton, there were meteorologists that would regularly go over to Central Park from the office to Central Park for all the snowfall measurements. So the accuracy of the snowfall measurements was top notch. We even had meteorologists that used to post here that would run back and forth between the Rockefeller Center office and Central Park to do the measurements by hand. As soon as they left on 1993 and the new ASOS was installed in 1995, the quality temperature and snowfall measurements rapidly declined. The trees began to grow over the site in the 1990s putting the ASOS in the shade especially when the trees were fully leafed out. There were several news articles written with outside meteorologists criticizing what began to happen around 2003 when it became very obvious. I think the NWS fought to keep the Central Park site open as there may have been some talk of closing it. But the parks department was very sensitive to the idea of cutting any of the trees back in Central Park. So in the last 20 years the tree growth has accelerated even more from when the original articles were written. The conservation movement in Central Park has grown very strong. This is generally a good thing. But when your weather observing equipment in under a growing tree canopy, it will take 3° to sometimes 5° off the high temperatures on sunny and warm summer days relative to a grassy clearing in the park like the Great Lawn.