bluewave
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It’s the first time your area had so many October freezes while still running +5.5 on the maximum temperatures due to the very dry conditions and so much high pressure and light winds. SMQ Oct 24….max…+5.5….min…..-2.5……8 days dropping to 32 or lower.
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Record low dew points for this time of year.
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I am thinking we are going to have to wait until the first week of December to know since the forcing leading to these standing wave patterns can result in the main 500mb height anomaly shifting locations depending on the month.
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The ridge keeps beating model forecasts. New run Old run
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12 record highs from late October into November since 2016 at spots like Newark with the potential for more next few weeks. https://threadex.rcc-acis.org Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2024-10-29DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/18 85 in 2016 80 in 1964 79 in 2007+ 10/19 87 in 2016 82 in 1945 81 in 1963 10/20 80 in 2021 80 in 1969 80 in 1947 10/21 84 in 2024 84 in 1947 81 in 2017 10/22 86 in 1979 83 in 2024 79 in 1984+ 10/23 87 in 1947 82 in 2024 82 in 1978 10/24 83 in 2001 78 in 1946 77 in 2017+ 10/25 79 in 2001 79 in 1963 78 in 2021 10/26 82 in 2023 79 in 1964 79 in 1963 10/27 81 in 1963 80 in 1947 78 in 2023+ 10/28 84 in 2023 82 in 1984 78 in 1989+ 10/29 78 in 1971 78 in 1946 76 in 1989 10/30 82 in 1946 80 in 1961 80 in 1950 10/31 82 in 1946 79 in 1950 77 in 1945 11/1 85 in 1950 81 in 1974 78 in 1982 11/2 84 in 1950 80 in 1982 78 in 1990+ 11/3 81 in 2003 79 in 1990 76 in 2017+ 11/4 79 in 1994 78 in 1987 77 in 1982+ 11/5 79 in 2022 77 in 1959 76 in 1994 11/6 80 in 1948 77 in 2022 77 in 1959 11/7 81 in 2022 78 in 1938 77 in 2020 11/8 77 in 2020 76 in 1975 75 in 1945 11/9 77 in 2020 75 in 1975 74 in 2021 11/10 76 in 2020 73 in 1999 73 in 1985+ 11/11 75 in 1949 73 in 2020 71 in 2022 11/12 74 in 2022 74 in 1938 71 in 1982
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The last time was in 2022. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1950 85 0 2 2022 81 0 - 2003 81 0 - 1974 81 0 3 1993 80 0 - 1982 80 0
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Yeah, the magnitude of the 500mb anomalies are off the charts for what would have been past occasions of forcing lining up over the WPAC.
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The composites this month matched a much stronger MJO 6 in the means than we have seen in any other past October. So my guess is that we are getting enhanced SST feedback east of Japan. When this combined with the background Maritime Continent forcing it resulted in an unusually strong standing wave pattern for October.
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Yeah, the PAC Jet shift to the north has really dried things out across the U.S. this month.
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A few spots could overperform and reach 80° today in NJ. Then more widespread 80° readings expected tomorrow. Thursday will be closer to record high temperatures in spots.
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The record breaking 500mb ridge which was up in Canada since last year dropped south in October with the La Niña and shut off the rainfall for much of the U.S.
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A very memorable event with the record snow and NYC dropping to 33° in October. Most recent years have been struggling to get below 40° in October. Many more top 10 warmest minimums above 40° for the month these days. The rare recent exception was October 2020 that got to 32° which foreshadowed that great winter pattern relative to the last several winters.
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Canada had their strongest May 500mb ridge on record in 2023. Then the ridge axis shifted a bit ESE for the winter. The La Niña background combined with the El Niño allowing more ridging than we typically see in the East during El Niños. I was pointing out the potential error that the Euro seasonal forecast was showing last fall in the East.
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Like we were discussing the other day, we are really going to need a mismatch this winter in order to push back against so many early warm signals. On one hand we have the divergence that we haven’t seen since 2010 with the Niña strength and early MJO. If the weaker La Niña past winter patterns win out than the main ridge axis spot has a shot a more very high temperature departures since the weaker La Ninas have been warmest since 2010. The early hints are that it will be further south than last winter. But the early MJO indicator is following the stronger path like 20-21. Due to the divergence I don’t know yet whether it will continue to work. My guess is when we get to the early December modeling timeframe one or the other scenarios should be obvious at that time. So like many times we have to wait until the first week of December to see which way the pattern moves.
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The key is figuring out where the mean ridge and trough locations will play out. Then adjusting the mean ridge locations warmer than the seasonal guidance since they have had a cold bias where the strongest ridges actually have set up in recent years. I was pointing out last year in the El Niño thread early on how the models were probably overdoing that Nino trough in the East due to the La Niña background through the record WPAC warm pool which serves to enhance the Southeast Ridge. Then the discussions about the record warmth in Canada since May 2023 as a precursor to the winter. So last winter was one of the easier to see how the model cold biases would play out. While I agree we could see the risk of a warmer scenario last winter early on, the exact magnitude of the departures took until those +10 to +15 Canadian departures showed up for December during the first week of month.
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I will take it a step further than that and say whether for positive or negative the winter outcomes can be traced back as early as the previous spring or summer. The record breaking warmth and ridging last winter in Canada was becoming evident in May 2023 which carried right through last winter. The 22-23 winter deep trough in the West pattern became established in November. The very strong SPV pattern in 19-20 began with the near record IOD and IO forcing in the fall. The cold and snowy 13-14 and 14-15 winter patterns first began to set up with the record TNH during the summer of 2013. The great backloaded 12-13 progression followed the early peaking El Niño around Labor Day even though no official Nino was declared. The amazing 09-10 and 10-11 blocking patterns first became evident in the summer of 2009 with one of the coolest June and July periods around NYC and record summer blocking.
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I was looking more at the big burst of IO forcing which preceded the record breaking AO rise. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-022-00279-x#:~:text=Arctic oscillation (AO)%2C which,the positive trend of AO. Arctic oscillation (AO), which is the most dominant atmospheric variability in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the boreal winter, significantly affects the weather and climate at mid-to-high latitudes in the NH. Although a climate community has focused on a negative trend of AO in recent decades, the significant positive trend of AO over the last 60 years has not yet been thoroughly discussed. By analyzing reanalysis and Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP) datasets with pacemaker experiments, we found that sea surface temperature warming in the Indian Ocean is conducive to the positive trend of AO from the late 1950s. The momentum flux convergence by stationary waves due to the Indian Ocean warming plays an important role in the positive trend of AO, which is characterized by a poleward shift of zonal-mean zonal winds. In addition, the reduced upward propagating wave activity flux over the North Pacific due to Indian Ocean warming also plays a role to strengthen the polar vortex, subsequently, it contributes to the positive trend of AO
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Driest first two months of fall for many locations.
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These strong 500mb ridges are usually located further north in Canada allowing moisture to undercut. But this one was right across the CONUS with too much high pressure for it to rain. Very rare situation to say the least.
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Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23
bluewave replied to BxEngine's topic in New York City Metro
I started out in the mid-80s with the Alden Difax weather model printer at the college weather lab. The models were really primitive back then with only black and white and very low printed resolution. Plus they were often incorrect even the day before especially with snowstorms. Then in the 90s I didn’t get online until January 97. So I missed the whole 95-96 weather season online. I got a Pentium 150 with a 56k dial up. I quickly found Walt’s great AFDs out of Boston and tried to learn all the different terms he was using in his long range discussions. My first forum experience was back on Eastern during 2006 just reading the comments. Then I joined in 2007 and have been on the forums ever since. -
I think the comments were added to the wrong date since there wouldn’t have been frost that morning as Jersey City had a low of 45° also. A few days later it dropped to 34° at both sites. So that is probably the date that frost was recorded. The temperature shelter in 1924 was down on the platform. So it was a good sitting before it became overgrown with trees and went into deep shade when the NWS left NYC in the 90s. The anemometer was always on top of the castle. But now the trees have grown higher than the top of the castle. So the winds are too low. This is why the strongest gust was back in the 1970s before the trees were blocking the wind. Data for October 18, 1924 through October 18, 1924 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 50 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 46 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 45 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 45
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While the Euro had the general ridge and trough locations correct for October, the pattern verified much more amplified than forecast. http://seasonal.meteo.fr/content/PS-previ-cartes?TSPD_101_R0=0804515747ab2000263c57679892e0481ee247a166d03c175ce873dc1d66636a0d5c36e7e8a9cf5f08c0aa925214300096df27d4518308136ac5ee301211eb4b4b0904e4c8bf3eb9f6b53626dc172c2d2096614d7cdda80bf8d8617544ad2c09
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A top 10 warmest October for spots like JFK with the average high in 2nd place. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2017 71.0 0 2 2024 70.5 4 3 1971 70.2 0 4 2007 70.1 0 5 2021 69.9 0 6 1963 69.2 0 7 1995 69.0 0 8 1949 68.7 0 9 1984 68.6 0 10 1990 68.4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1971 63.5 0 2 2017 63.2 0 3 2021 63.0 0 - 2007 63.0 0 4 1984 61.7 0 5 1995 61.6 0 6 1990 61.3 0 7 2024 61.1 4 - 1949 61.1 0 8 1954 60.1 0 9 2013 60.0 0 10 1975 59.9 0
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ISP tied the lowest October dew point on record at only 12°. The relative humidity was 2nd lowest at 17%. So places like the Pine Barrens can experience some strong radiational cooling tonight. MacArthur/ISP MOSUNNY 57 12 17 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&month=oct&sday=1027&eday=1231&var=min_dwpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
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The continuous daily records in NYC go back to the late 1800s. A recent study based on tree rings found the driest period of the last 500 years was around the 1600s. And the recent 30 year period with the reliable instrument records was the wettest in the last 500 years. So my guess is during that drought around the 1600s there were probably months like this. Since a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, the recent extreme rainfall events were to be expected and would have a much smaller chance of occurring in a much colder climate. As for temperatures, this recent period was the warmest since the end of the last ice age. But not nearly as warm as the prehistoric times when CO2 levels were actually higher than today. As we know CO2 can occur from natural sources like in the distant past. And we can cause the levels to change from emissions.
