bluewave

The Pacific Jet continues to set records.

At least Philly can brag that they beat 72-73. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1973-04-30 T 0 2 2020-04-30 0.3 86 3 1998-04-30 0.8 0 4 1950-04-30 2.0 0 5 2012-04-30 4.0 0 - 2002-04-30 4.0 0 7 1931-04-30 4.1 0 8 1919-04-30 4.5 0 9 1951-04-30 4.6 0 10 1992-04-30 4.7 0

Hopefully, this just turns out to be a 2 year thing. That’s how it has worked out since 2010. But if we don’t see a change as soon as next winter, then it could be an extended stretch. 09-10....10-11....record -AO/-NAO....Colder and snowy 11-12..................Raging +EPO..........Warm low snowfall 12-13..................Great February especially eastern sections...warmer winter 13-14....14-15.....record -EPO...built further east into +PNA 2nd winter...cold and snowy 15-16..................Super El Niño...warm and snowy 16-17.....17-18....Warm and snowy La Niña 18-19....19-20.....Warm and less snowfall...ridge stuck north of Hawaii with persistent cutter and hugger storm tracks

Yeah, the spring into early summer pattern evolution will be important. This pattern during the summer would be just like 2010 to 2012.

No surprise since the ridge axis has been stuck north of Hawaii for 2 winters now. The million dollar question is how much longer this most recent stuck weather pattern lasts.

OP runs beyond 120 hrs are never really great with storm details. That’s why the EPS means are often used 126 to 240. But even then, they mostly show skill with things like AN or BN temperatures and the 500mb pattern. A Euro advantage is the great ensemble system that often shows when a long range OP run is an outlier among its ensembles. That why a super amped OP solution beyond 120hrs often doesn’t match the EPS mean. The GFS really doesn’t have this relationship with its ensembles. So they can both often turn out to be incorrect.

That particular OP solution is an outlier among its ensembles.

GFS cold bias strikes again. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/14/weather-service-prepares-launch-new-prediction-model-that-many-forecasters-dont-trust/ The model has tended to overpredict snowfall in the heavily populated Interstate 95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, setting off false alarms in a region where forecasts are particularly consequential. In Boston, which has seen just six inches of snow this winter, Eric Fisher, chief meteorologist for the CBS affiliate, remarkedthat the model had predicted “multiple” 30-inch snowfalls. Here in Washington, we have documented multiple cases in which its snowfall forecasts several days into the future have been erroneously high. In early December, it was predicting double-digit amounts for Washington four days before a storm tracked to the south and no snow fell. On Monday, the FV3 was predicting double-digit totals for a storm on Saturday in the Washington region, and it now calls for little snow.

Updated for the top10 warmth in January 2020. 1....2020...EWR...9...NYC...9...LGA....7...JFK...6...BDR...3....ISP...6

February 2007 won the wasted cold award. Our one big storm on Valentine’s Day turned into an ice fest. February 2017 was much more productive for snowfall at over 10 degrees warmer. Goes to show the importance of the right storm track. Islip February 2007....27.1....-5.7....4.2” February 2017....37.8....+5.0...14.7”

The Pacific Jet has been relentless.

The publication of this paper proved to be very timely.

This was a great tweet. I have been saying this for a while about old analogs not matching the new climate. The expansion of the WPAC warm pool has been favoring these warmer MJO phases for us.

Very consistent Great Lakes cutter, coastal hugger, and southern stream suppressed storm track since last winter.

While this doesn’t diminish in any way the recent era snowfall extremes, many of those older storms were undermeasured by modern standards. https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history Earlier in our weather history, the standard practice was to record snowfall amounts less frequently, such as every 12 or 24 hours, or even to take just one measurement of depth on the ground at the end of the storm. You might think that one or two measurements per day should add up to pretty much the same as measurements taken every 6 hours during the storm. It’s a logical assumption, but you would be mistaken. Snow on the ground gets compacted as additional snow falls. Therefore, multiple measurements during a storm typically result in a higher total than if snowfall is derived from just one or two measurements per day. That can make quite a significant difference. It turns out that it’s not uncommon for the snow on the ground at the end of a storm to be 15 to 20 percent less than the total that would be derived from multiple snowboard measurements. As the cooperative climate observer for Boulder, Colorado, I examined the 15 biggest snowfalls of the last two decades, all measured at the NOAA campus in Boulder. The sum of the snowboard measurements averaged 17 percent greater than the maximum depth on the ground at the end of the storm. For a 20-inch snowfall, that would be a boost of 3.4 inches—enough to dethrone many close rivals on the top-10 snowstorm list that were not necessarily lesser storms!

The exact evolution may have to wait to within the NAM’s best range. Plenty going on with the fast northern stream and timing of the southern stream shortwave ejection. A perfectly timed phase and UL track will be necessary to compensate for the lack of high pressure to the N and NW. It’s been a while since a phase worked out for us.

Yeah, timing of the phase and surface and UL track will be critical.

We would probably also need the UL to close off right over the area to make up for the lack of any high pressure to the N or NW.

Storm Gloria generates the biggest wave ever recorded in the Mediterranean https://www.surfertoday.com/environment/storm-gloria-generates-the-biggest-wave-ever-recorded-in-the-mediterranean

Historic event for that part of Canada. https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/weathersummaries_e.html#NL Weather summary for Newfoundland issued by Environment Canada at 3:00 p.m. NST Sunday 19 January 2020. Discussion. A powerful January storm brought intense winds and record-breaking snowfall to parts of Newfoundland on Friday into Friday night. A new all-time daily snowfall record was established at St. John's International Airport. New record: 76.2 cm (January 17, 2020). Previous daily record: 68.4 cm (April 5, 1999). Records began in 1942. The above total is applicable for the January 17 climatological day, which is a 24 hour period ending at 2:30 A.M. NST on January 18. An additional 2.0 cm was recorded after 2:30 A.M. The area of low pressure responsible for the snow and wind emerged from the northeastern United States early Thursday and began to rapidly intensify as it moved over the Gulf of Maine. The system deepened into a powerful storm as it tracked southeast of the Avalon Peninsula on Friday, before departing into the North Atlantic early Saturday. The storm battered the eastern half of the island with heavy snowfall, extremely high winds and damaging coastal storm surge. The following is a summary of information received by Environment and Climate Change Canada as of 2:30 P.M. NST Sunday. Total snowfall (in centimetres): Mount Pearl: 93 Paradise: 91 St. John's East: 82 St. John's International Airport: 78 Mount Carmel: 61 Lethbridge: 48 Gander International Airport: 35 Gander West: 35 St. Lawrence: 31 Grand Falls-Windsor: 10 Maximum wind gusts (in kilometres per hour): Green Island, Fortune Bay: 171 Bonavista: 164 Grates Cove: 156 Heart's Delight-Islington: 156 Cape Pine: 146 Green Island, Trinity Bay: 145 Twillingate: 140 St. John's - Doheney Place: 134 St. John's - East White Hills: 132 St-Pierre: 130 St. John's - Dockyard: 129 Pass Island: 126 Allan's Island: 116 Holyrood: 114 Bishop's Cove: 113 Ramea: 109 St. Lawrence: 106 Burgeo: 105 St. John's West: 105 Deer Park: 101 North Harbour: 101 Gander: 97 At St. John's International Airport the official wind sensor malfunctioned during the storm. Reported winds were estimated to be between 65 and 85 knots (120 to 157 km/h). However, it will likely not be possible to provide a verified maximum gust. The wind sensor at Gander International Airport also briefly malfunctioned. The highest gust at the nearby Gander climate station was measured as reaching 97 km/h. The following area set a daily minimum temperature record on January 18, 2020: Winterland Area (Winterland Branch Hill) New record of -17.9 Old record of -17.8 set in 2001 Records in this area have been kept since 1970 Note: the temperature record reported here has been derived from a selection of historical stations in this geographic area that were active during the period of record. Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial information and does not constitute a complete or final report. End/NLWO

Snowiest day on record for St. John’s.