bluewave

JAXA looks like it's on target to finish very close to last year if there is an average 2007-2016 melt rate for the rest of the summer.

IMHO the 2005-2007 period pretty much reset the whole Arctic background state. Arctic amplification really took off at that time when the September avg extents started regularly falling below 6 million sq km on NSIDC. We didn't even need a 2012 record minimum the last few years to set the extreme Arctic warmth records.

We would need a solid dipole pattern to lock in to have a chance of challenging 2012. Otherwise, it's going to be another year that the 2012 record holds. Seems like the really extreme Arctic conditions for the most part since 2012 have been during the winters instead of the summers from 2007-2012.

If this cooler pattern continues, then it might not really matter if we know the exact volume for sure. 2012 and 2011 weren't all that different on volume in August and September. But the 2012 record warmth with the weather pattern made all the difference between the two extent finishes in September. This June is continuing the post 2012 stronger polar vortex pattern vs the 2007-2012 raging dipole regime. We would need a July 2015 rapid reversal to really accelerate the melt. But that kind of reversal isn't showing up in the longer range guidance as of yet. Even Greenland is enjoying a below average melt compared to recent years.

PIOMAS actually pulled back closer to the pack the last few weeks.

More uncertainty about the actual thickness this year due to the divergence between PIOMAS and CryoSat. NSIDC mentioned it in a recent discussion. Data from the European Space Agency’s CryoSat-2 satellite indicate that this winter’s ice cover may be only slightly thinner than that observed at this time of year for the past four years. However, an ice-ocean model at the University of Washington (PIOMAS) that incorporates observed weather conditions suggests the volume of ice in the Arctic is unusually low.

Coolest first half of June at Utqiaġvik (Barrow) since 1974, 4.5°F (2.5°C) below the 1981-2010 normal. You know the weather patterns are really out of whack when it's 36 on January 1st in Barrow and can only reach a high of 38 degrees during the first half of June. https://mobile.twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/875793934043291648/photo/1#

Yeah, the flip occurred right around the record breaking March 2013 -3.185 AO. That's when the dominant blocking shifted from the Atlantic to Pacific sector. The +PDO recently set a record breaking 40 positive months in a row.Must be related to AGW, Arctic, tropics, Atlantic, Pacific ,and rossby wave linkages.

The -425 m PV is one of the strongest that we have seen in June. So yet another June post 2012 without the strong 2007-2012 dipole making an appearance.

I don't think that reaching technically ice free in September is the important benchmark to focus on. The key number appears to have been dropping below 6 million sq km on a regular basis around 2005 in September. That's when Arctic amplification really took off.

Month...Year...Station...Rank 3...2010...EWR...7...NYC...6...LGA...5...JFK...4...BDR...2...ISP...3 4...2010...EWR...1...NYC...1...LGA...1...JFK...1...BDR...2...ISP...2 5...2010...EWR...4...LGA...5...JFK....4...BDR...4...BDR...4...ISP...5 6...2010...EWR...2...NYC...4...LGA...2...JFK...1...BDR...2...ISP...1 7...2010...EWR...3...NYC...2...LGA...1...JFK...1...BDR...3...ISP...2 8...2010...EWR...10...LGA...8...BDR...10 9...2010...EWR...5...LGA...6...JFK...7...BDR...7...ISP...7 ............................................................................................... 4...2011...EWR...10 6...2011...EWR...9 7...2011...EWR...1...NYC...5...LGA...10...JFK...2...BDR...4...ISP...3 9...2011...EWR...7..LGA...10...BDR...4....ISP...4 11..2011..EWR..5...NYC...6...LGA...6...JFK...5...BDR...3...ISP...4 12..2011..EWR...5...NYC...5..LGA...5....JFK...7...BDR...3...ISP...6 ................................................................................................ 1...2012...BDR...8...ISP...7 2...2012...EWR...3...NYC...2...LGA...2...JFK...1...BDR...1...ISP...2 3...2012...EWR...1...NYC...2...LGA...1...JFK...1...BDR...1...ISP...2 4...2012...LGA....4...JFK...4...BDR...3...ISP....4 5...2012...EWR...7...JFK...3...BDR...3...ISP...3 7...2012...EWR...5...JFK...6...BDR...7...ISP...7 12..2012..EWR..10...LGA..8..JFK...10...BDR...7...ISP...5 ................................................................................................ 7...2013...EWR...5...NYC...8...LGA...3...JFK...3...BDR...1...ISP...2 ................................................................................................ 12..2014..BDR...10...ISP...9 ................................................................................................. 5...2015...EWR...2...NYC...2...LGA...3...JFK...2...BDR...2...ISP...3 8...2015...EWR...7....NYC...4...LGA...4...JFK...2...BDR...3...ISP...4 9...2015...EWR...3...NYC...1...LGA...2...JFK...1....BDR...1...ISP...1 11..2015..EWR...1...NYC...1...LGA...3...JFK...2...BDR...4...ISP...1 12..2015...EWR..1...NYC...1...LGA...1...JFK...1...BDR...1...ISP...1 ................................................................................................. 3...2016...EWR...3...NYC...4...LGA...3...JFK...3...BDR...3...ISP...2 7...2016...EWR...9...LGA...4...JFK....5...BDR...5...ISP...5 8...2016...EWR...2...NYC...3...LGA...1...JFK...1...BDR...1...ISP...2 9...2016...EWR...3...NYC...5...LGA...3...JFK...5...BDR...2...ISP...5 10..2016..BDR..9...ISP...8 11..2016..EWR..9...LGA...5...JFK...7...BDR...10 ............................................................................................... 1...2017...EWR...10...LGA...6...JFK...6...BDR...1...ISP...6 2...2017...EWR...1....NYC...2...LGA...1...JFK...1....BDR...2...ISP...3 4...2017...EWR...4...NYC...2...LGA...2....JFK...2...BDR....2...ISP...1 9...2017...EWR..10..LGA...8...JFK...7....BDR...8...ISP...4 10..2017..EWR...1..NYC..1....LGA...1....JFK...2...BDR..1...ISP...1 ..................................................................................................... 2...2018...EWR...2....NYC...1...LGA....2....JFK...3....BDR...3.....ISP....1 5...2018...EWR...6....NYC...6...LGA....2....JFK...5....BDR...4.....ISP....4 8...2018...EWR...5....NYC...9...LGA....2....JFK...5...BDR....2.....ISP....4 9..2018....EWR...7....LGA...6...JFK.....8....BDR..6...ISP.....3 ...................................................................................................... 4.....2019....EWR...10...NYC...8...LGA...10...JFK...10...BDR...9.....ISP...5 7.....2019....EWR...7.....NYC..10...LGA...3....JFK....4....BDR...3.....ISP...2 9.....2019....LGA...8 10...2019....EWR...9...ISP...#7 .................................................................................................................... 1....2020...EWR...9...NYC...9...LGA....7...JFK...6...BDR...3....ISP...6 2....2020...EWR...6...NYC...6...LGA....8...JFK...4...BDR...5....ISP...3 3....2020...EWR...7...NYC...8...LGA....5....JFK...5...BDR...3...ISP...5 6....2020...EWR..10..LGA...3...BDR...5.....ISP....5 7....2020...EWR...5...NYC...7...LGA...1.....JFK...4...BDR....1...ISP....4 8....2020...EWR...10..LGA...5...BDR...3...ISP....6 11..2020...EWR....4...NYC...1....LGA....1...JFK...4...BDR...5....ISP....4 ................................................................................................................. 3....2021...LGA.....9....JFK....10.....BDR....8 6….2021….EWR…..2…..NYC….6……LGA……5…..BDR….ISP…..6 8….2021….EWR…..2…..LGA…..6…..JFK……10…..BDR….3…..ISP….5 9…2021…..EWR…..4…..LGA…..7…..JFK……7……..BDR…..5….ISP….4 10..2021….EWR…..1…..NYC…..6…..LGA….3……..JFK……3….BDR…..3…..ISP….2 …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 7…..2022……EWR…..#2….LGA…..#6….JFK….#4…..BDR…#10….ISP….#7

Endless summer...

It's so warm up there that we actually just had a small daily loss in extent on NSIDC.

The Arctic stations data for October shows the unprecedented nature of the extreme warmth. Chart courtesy of Richard James http://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2016/11/arctic-warmth.html

New record low October average extent of 6.40 million sq km. This beats the previous October 2007 record by 400K.

This Brian Brettschneider 925 mb October temperature chart shows how extreme this record warmth was in both absolute value and aerial coverage across the Arctic. As impressive a warm Arctic, cold continent(Eurasia) pattern that you are going to see.

New October records for Arctic warmth along with 500 mb blocking.

Second unprecedented slowdown in the October freeze-up as the Arctic easily surpasses previous records for October warmth and blocking. This is every bit impressive as the 2007 and 2012 melt seasons along with the record warmth this past winter and spring.

This will probably be the first melt year that is remembered more for the winter and spring than the summer.

Statistical tie for 2nd place with 2007 on NSIDC. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its seasonal minimum extent for 2016 on September 10. A relatively rapid loss of sea ice in the first ten days of September has pushed the ice extent to a statistical tie with 2007 for the second lowest in the satellite record. September’s low extent followed a summer characterized by conditions generally unfavorable for sea ice loss. That September ice extent nevertheless fell to second lowest in the satellite record is hence surprising. Averaged for July through August, air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above sea level) were 0.5 to 2 degrees Celsius (1 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit) below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average over much of the central Arctic Ocean, and near average to slightly higher than average near the North American and easternmost Siberian coasts. Reflecting the stormy conditions, sea level pressures were much lower than average in the central Arctic during these months. Why did extent fall to a tie for second lowest with 2007? The 2016 Arctic melt season started with arecord low maximum extent in March, and sea ice was measured at record low monthly extents well into June. Computer models of ice thickness, and maps of sea ice age both indicated a much thinner ice pack at the end of winter. Statistically, there is little relationship between May and September sea ice extents after removing the long-term trend, indicating the strong role of summer weather patterns in controlling sea ice loss. However, the initial ice thickness may play a significant role. As noted in our mid-August post, the upper ocean was quite warm this summer and ocean-driven melting is important during late summer. The science community will be examining these issues in more detail in coming months.

James Overland has a nice presentation on the record winter warmth in the Arctic this year which set the stage for the record low sea ice extent levels that were experienced during May. The more favorable polar vortex pattern for sea ice this summer prevented this from being the year which beat 2012.

Took one of the strongest summer polar vortex patterns over the Arctic of the 2000's to prevent this year from equaling or surpassing 2012. The most dramatic pattern change that you will ever see there following the strongest blocking pattern on record from Jan-May.

We'll see if we can keep the new record every 5 years going for 2017 with the previous records set in 2007 and 2012.

NSIDC moves into second place ahead of 2007 but well behind 2012. That dramatic dipole reversal in June prevented us from equaling or surpassing the 2012 record minimum. Impressive temperature spike at the pole with the steeper losses the last few days.