bluewave

I think that there is also another wild card. We keep seeing that ridge build over the warm pool around Hawaii. Very tough to get the ridge into Alaska with that feature there. I mentioned the ridge pull back that we normally see in an El Niño February the other day. I just hope that this more Niña-like feature doesn’t interfere.

The ensembles were never particularly great day 11+. It may just be that they are getting posted more with the rise of social media. So they are now coming under greater scrutiny.

Impressive CONUS warmth for the 1st half of meteorological winter.

The warmth for the 1st half of February was more impressive to the north of NYC. It was the 2nd warmest on record at Albany and 6th warmest in NYC. That’s +14.6 in Albany and +10.2 in NYC. Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15 Missing Count 1 2007-01-15 37.6 0 2 2020-01-15 37.2 0 3 1932-01-15 36.8 0 4 1937-01-15 35.1 0 5 1889-01-15 35.0 0 6 1930-01-15 34.8 0 7 1874-01-15 34.0 0 8 1907-01-15 33.6 0 9 1928-01-15 33.3 0 10 1936-01-15 33.2 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 15 Missing Count 1 2007-01-15 46.4 0 2 1932-01-15 44.0 0 3 1950-01-15 43.6 0 4 1907-01-15 43.5 0 5 1998-01-15 43.3 0 6 2020-01-15 42.7 0 7 2005-01-15 42.2 0 8 1937-01-15 42.1 0 9 1930-01-15 41.7 0 10 1890-01-15 41.4 0

It certainly looks like we are moving into more of an El Niño pattern. The big AAM rise and strong WWB pattern are classic El Niño features. February is typically our best month of winter with an El Niño. The ridge over SE Canada that the models are indicating around the 25th is the January +AAM composite. That ridge usually pulls back in February allowing a colder pattern. But we can always use some help from the -AO and -NAO to make any El Niño February better.

You can see the models adjusting milder around the 25th now that they have such a strong AAM rise. This is occurring as the record MJO enters the Western Pacific phases. We are getting a very strong WWB with this and a more El Niño looking regime. The stronger ridge building into SE Canada around the 25th is part of this pattern.

The departures and rankings for the first 13 days of January have been even warmer to the north of the NYC area. Albany is a +14.2 with NYC +9.9. This was the 2nd warmest for Albany and 7th warmest in NYC. Time Series Summary for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 13 Missing Count 1 2007-01-13 38.8 0 2 2020-01-13 36.8 0 3 1889-01-13 36.4 0 4 1874-01-13 35.7 0 5 1998-01-13 34.9 0 6 2000-01-13 34.7 0 7 1932-01-13 34.6 0 8 1907-01-13 34.4 0 9 1930-01-13 34.3 0 10 1936-01-13 33.6 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jan 1 to Jan 13 Missing Count 1 2007-01-13 46.4 0 2 1998-01-13 45.3 0 3 1907-01-13 44.2 0 4 2000-01-13 43.5 0 5 1950-01-13 43.2 0 6 2005-01-13 42.6 0 7 2020-01-13 42.5 0 8 1890-01-13 42.2 0 9 2006-01-13 41.8 0 10 2008-01-13 41.5 0

Perhaps this extreme MJO event can jump-start the El Niño. We are getting a decent WWB event unfolding now in the Pacific. I would like to see the northern branch stop competing with the southern stream. A strengthening El Niño could allow the STJ to take over with less interference from disturbances moving through the Great Lakes.

Hopefully, we can move past the the southern stream suppression mode of recent times. The trough axis was also too Far East on 1-13-19. That one was right after the MJO phase 7-8 passage. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20190113.html

Let’s hope that the 21-23rd potential can make it far enough north. Eric Webb did a great job with the stats. MJO phase 7 is the best phase for winter storm potential in North Carolina during January.

Big differences between what the forum and the general public consider to be a good winter. I guess the 15-16 and 16-17 winters would be considered a perfect compromise. Many of us got our 40 inch snowfall seasons. While the general public had their 40 degree winter with lower heating bills.

I guess the general public outside this forum will be happy with a lower heating bill. The period since December 23rd was the 2nd warmest on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 23 to Jan 12 Missing Count 1 2007-01-12 45.2 0 2 2020-01-12 42.9 0 3 2016-01-12 42.4 0 4 1983-01-12 42.2 0 5 2006-01-12 42.1 0 - 1998-01-12 42.1 0

We have made it to 70 and above for each winter month since 2015. Top 5 warmest temperatures in December and January. A new record warmest in February at 80 degrees. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1998 76 0 2 2001 74 0 3 2006 72 0 - 1982 72 0 - 1946 72 0 4 2015 71 0 - 2013 71 0 - 1984 71 0 5 1978 70 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1950 74 0 2 2007 72 0 3 2020 70 19 - 2002 70 0 - 1998 70 0 - 1932 70 0 4 1974 69 0 5 2000 68 0 - 1967 68 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 80 0 2 1949 76 0 3 2017 74 0 - 1997 74 0 - 1954 74 0 4 1985 73 0 5 2011 71 0

New all-time January record highs in Boston and Providence.

I just don’t get that while the storm is in progress. I saw a bunch of similar posts while I was trying to go through the storm observations. You guys really had your hands full. The Euro and EPS forecasts from 7-8 days out were superb. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/10913-evaluation-forecasts-hurricane-sandy

The 68 so far at ISP is only one off the January all-time high of 69 degrees. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2002 69 0 2 2007 68 0 3 1995 67 0 4 1974 66 0 - 1967 66 0 5 2008 64 0 - 1998 64 0

I wasn’t referring to the moderators. The post was addressing ways for the members to make this a better place. You guys have enough to do without having to worry about this type of behavior. The whole moderating team does an amazing job here. I can’t imagine what it was like for the moderating team to have to delete all the Sandy is going to bust posts that day. It was a stressful situation enough without all that side drama. My electricity was going on an off and the bust posts made the thread very hard to read.

67 here and it feels like spring. Just opened all the windows.

65 degrees here on the South Shore and it feels like spring.

This paper discusses the lag with the MJO. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0434.1?mobileUi=0& This study examined contemporaneous relationships between MJO phase and New England snowstorms. Thousands of kilometers separate these features, so we do not imply that the MJO’s effect is instantaneous. Rather, the MJO’s typical phase speed dictates that the MJO goes through one WH phase every 5–7 days, so some lag from the previous phase is implicit in our composites. This increase in East Coast troughing is also associated with cold air advection in the Northeast, enhancing baroclinicity (Moon et al. 2012). Given the MJO’s typical phase speed, the 7–10-day lag from phase 6 found by these previous studies is consistent with the contemporaneous signal we see in phases 7 and 8.

Go back and read the papers that were posted about MJO lags. Why do you think the CPC has something called lagged composites. The changes take time to manifest especially when we are seeing record amplitude. Short range analysis is fine if you take all the factors and biases into account. There is often overlap during transitions from one phase to the other.

This MJO just keeps getting more extreme. You can see all the guidance shifting to more of a phase 7 look around the 20th.

I think that they can do better if they try. It would make things so much easier. It’s tough having to wade through all those posts since it takes the attention away from the actual weather. Makes it harder to find relevant posts that get lost in the mix.

There are probably a few things that we can do to make this place run more smoothly. We should refrain from posting certain types of maps that have been proven to be very low skill. Any snowfall maps beyond 120 hrs 10:1 snowfall maps in marginal conditions. Any very long range OP runs such as the GFS from 240 to 384 hrs Some helpful hints to improve the model discussions When discussing a 6-10 day storm threat or pattern, try to rely more on ensemble means until we get closer to 120 hrs. Remember that human nature likes to extrapolate the current conditions forward. This means in warm pattern we get a bunch of winter cancel posts that seem to derail the threads. The same thing happens in cold patterns when some posters claim that it won’t eventually get warm again. And if a warmer forecast is presented when it’s cold, don’t go after that poster for hating winter or having a warm bias. Respect your fellow posters and never shut down conversations that presents varying opinions about an upcoming forecast. Following these guidelines will improve the long ranges forecasts and discussions.

This is officially the warmest midnight to 6am hourly temperatures of all-time at Newark in January. Newark has been at 65 to 66 degrees with 3 new hourly records and two ties. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&month=jan&var=max_tmpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png