bluewave

Just enough of the WAR has been holding on to keep the coolest temperatures to our west. I can also remember when NYC would regularly drop into the 50s at some point behind a cold front in August. Now we just have to settle for lows in the 60s and highs below 90 for our less warm August periods. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 2020 66 18 2019 61 0 2018 65 0 2017 60 0 2016 61 0 2015 63 0 2014 61 0 2013 59 0

It started on 6-28. MPO beat the previous warmest low temperature record for the period by 5 degrees. Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Jun 28 to Aug 12 Missing Count 1 2020-08-12 55 0 2 2019-08-12 50 0 - 2008-08-12 50 0 - 1955-08-12 50 2

Looks like MPO may finally end their record 55 or warmer minimum temperature streak. LGA could also break their 70° minimum streak. Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 55 for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1901-09-12 to 2020-08-12 1 46 2020-08-12 2 32 1938-08-18 - 32 1919-06-27 4 31 2013-07-23 5 24 2004-08-04 - 24 1947-08-31 7 23 1917-08-03 - 23 1916-07-28 9 22 2018-08-22 - 22 2009-08-30 Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2020-08-12 1 41 2020-08-12 2 34 2006-08-10 3 32 1980-08-15 4 29 2018-08-19 5 28 2010-07-30 6 24 1999-08-08 - 24 1995-08-05 8 23 1988-08-18 9 22 2016-08-02 - 22 2012-07-19

Less warm will be the new cool for us as the heat ridge shifts out to the Western US.

xmACIS2 https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org xmACIS2 Single-Station Multi-Station Select a product from the menus above. Options selection Station selection Go

Looks like the ASOS is on a grassy patch just SSE of the Home Depot garden center. You can just make it out on the bottom right portion of this satellite photo.

We are seeing something different this summer between FRG and ISP. Airport plaza shopping center opened around 2000. So that area around the airport has been built out for about 20 years now. You can see how ISP and FRG temperatures have been very close during July since 2010. They have traded places being warmer than the other site. But this is the first time that FRG was so much warmer than ISP. So perhaps it has something to do with the prevailing wind direction, record high dew points, and record SSTs . Other than that, I am not sure what could cause such a big disparity between the two sites. July......FRG....ISP 2020....80.6....77.7 2019....77.5....78.1 2018....75.8....75.5 2017....75.0....75.0 2016....77.3....76.8 2015....76.8....75.8 2014....73.7....75.2 2013...78.1.....78.0 2012....76.4.....76.2 2011.....78.0....77.6 2010.....79.7.....78.0

Quick SST rebound back to 80° about 75 NM east of NJ. NY Harb Entrance 1950 74 200/ 6/ 8 1016.2 1/ 4 20 S Fire Island 1950 76 230/ 4/ 4 1016.3 2/ 4 Great South Bay 1930 77 170/ 10/ 10 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1950 76 220/ 4/ 4 1016.9 2/ 4 15 E Barnegat Li 1926 75 N/A 2/11 Hudson Canyon 1950 80 1017.4 2/10

One farmer is hoping that his insurance will cover a portion of the losses. I have a ton of respect for anyone that can make a go of such a large agricultural business. I have seen how much of a challenge even a home garden on a few acres of land can be. Many new starts ups are attempting to do indoor vertical farming with varying degrees of success. https://www.kcci.com/article/derecho-damage-to-iowa-crops/33577652 https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/11/8/16611710/vertical-farms

Very challenging time to be a farmer with one extreme event after another. https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/2019/06/04/after-biblical-spring-this-is-week-that-could-break-corn-belt/?arc404=true

Looks like a station just to your south picked up 2.34. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYMANHA21/table/2020-08-12/2020-08-12/daily

Radar estimates of 2-3 inches of rain across Central Nassau.

The storm caused leaf burn on the south facing side of all the trees here in SW Suffolk. Those brown leaves are falling from the trees in quantities that we normally see later in the fall. So the landscapers had to come by yesterday and do a special leaf cleanup. But the ground is completely covered with leaves again today. The tropical dew points and heat just doesn’t match up with all the falling leaves.

August 8th to 20th has been our most active time of the year for 3.00” or greater rainfalls since 2011. The historic 1000 year event happened at ISP during this period in 2014. So the models indicating varying degrees of heavy rain potential during this period may be correct. The historic Sparta flood also occurred during this same time of the year back in 2000. https://www.weather.gov/okx/HistoricFlooding_081314 https://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hdsc/aep_storm_analysis/ https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2001/0104/report.pdf 3.00” or greater events since 2011 2019 8-8....Livingston TWP, NJ...3.21 2018 8-11 to 8-13 NWS Upton........6.60 8-7.......North Merrick..............4.73 2017 8-18......East Shoreham....3.80 2016 8-20.....Calverton.....3.85 2014 8-13.....JFK...3.26....ISP....13.51 2011 8-15...EWR...6.56...NYC...6.37...LGA...6.64...JFK....7.80...BDR....3.17....ISP...6.49....Lido Beach....10.20

The EPS has a break in the 90° heat for a while after tomorrow. Plenty of onshore flow coming up with high pressure to the north and lows to the south. The actual rainfall will probably be determined in the short term by where the weak fronts set up.

Another day with clouds and onshore flow allowing the warmest temperatures to go north of our area.

The marine layer is holding on near the coast.

The warm minimum temperatures continue to be the big story as Don pointed out above. Our interior areas have had the most 65° or warmer low temperatures by August 10th. Areas closer the coast have had near their highest number of 70°minimums to date. Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 37 1 2 2013-08-10 35 0 - 1975-08-10 35 0 3 2011-08-10 31 0 - 2006-08-10 31 1 - 1973-08-10 31 0 - 1949-08-10 31 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 29 2 2 2018-08-10 26 2 - 2006-08-10 26 0 3 2013-08-10 23 5 - 2010-08-10 23 2 4 2014-08-10 21 0 - 2011-08-10 21 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 45 1 2 2012-08-10 43 1 3 2010-08-10 42 1 4 2011-08-10 41 1 5 2006-08-10 40 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 43 0 - 2011-08-10 43 0 2 2012-08-10 42 0 - 1994-08-10 42 0 3 2010-08-10 41 0 - 1988-08-10 41 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 45 0 - 2010-08-10 45 0 2 1908-08-10 43 0 3 1906-08-10 42 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 52 0 2 2010-08-10 51 0 - 2006-08-10 51 0 3 2012-08-10 49 0 4 2019-08-10 45 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 43 0 2 2010-08-10 34 0 3 2013-08-10 27 1 4 2018-08-10 26 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2020-08-10 29 4 - 2010-08-10 29 0 3 2013-08-10 28 0 4 2012-08-10 27 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2013-08-10 28 0 2 2010-08-10 27 0 3 2020-08-10 26 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Aug 10 Missing Count 1 2010-08-10 40 0 2 2012-08-10 36 0 - 1949-08-10 36 0 3 2020-08-10 35 0 - 2013-08-10 35 0

The world is a much warmer place now than after the 82-83 and 97-98 super El Niños. So the regional climate patterns have been different. But you can see the Euro going right back to the SE Canada high and onshore flow by next weekend.

That’s a very good question. There has been an unmistakable shift in the July ridge positions from 2010-2013 to 2018 to 2020. Notice the stronger rigging now over SE Canada and New England. This allows more onshore flow and higher dew points with the heat vs 2010 to 2013.

We don’t even need 100° days anymore to have one of our warmest summers like the last few years. In the past, our warmest summers would often feature maximum temperatures of 100° or higher. But the location of the ridge allowing more onshore flow here has kept the number of 100° days down. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Maximum Temperature 1 2010 80.7 101 2 2011 79.8 103 3 2013 79.5 100 4 2020 79.3 97 5 2019 78.8 99 6 1999 78.7 102 - 1993 78.7 101 7 2016 78.6 98 - 1983 78.6 100 - 1949 78.6 98 8 2015 78.4 95 - 2012 78.4 99 9 1994 78.1 93 10 2002 77.8 99

We don’t even need 100° days anymore to have one of our warmest summers like the last few years. In the past, our warmest summers would often feature maximum temperatures of 100° or higher. But the location of the ridge allowing more onshore flow here has kept the number of 100° days down. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Maximum Temperature 1 2010 80.7 101 2 2011 79.8 103 3 2013 79.5 100 4 2020 79.3 97 5 2019 78.8 99 6 1999 78.7 102 - 1993 78.7 101 7 2016 78.6 98 - 1983 78.6 100 - 1949 78.6 98 8 2015 78.4 95 - 2012 78.4 99 9 1994 78.1 93 10 2002 77.8 99

We don’t even need 100° days anymore to have one of our warmest summers like the last few years. In the past, our warmest summers would often feature maximum temperatures of 100° or higher. But the location of the ridge allowing more onshore flow here has kept the number of 100° days down. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Maximum Temperature 1 2010 80.7 101 2 2011 79.8 103 3 2013 79.5 100 4 2020 79.3 97 5 2019 78.8 99 6 1999 78.7 102 - 1993 78.7 101 7 2016 78.6 98 - 1983 78.6 100 - 1949 78.6 98 8 2015 78.4 95 - 2012 78.4 99 9 1994 78.1 93 10 2002 77.8 99

I will take the higher dew points and wet year round over the severe droughts that Mediterranean climates have been experiencing recently.