bluewave

I haven’t been able to find any 80° months on Long Island south of the Long Island Expressway. Even JFK has only had 1 month to average 80° in July 2010. Maybe there have been some stations north of the LIE on LI that did it.

FRG is close to its first 80° July. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 79.9 6 2 2010 79.7 0 3 2013 78.1 0 4 2011 78.0 0 5 2019 77.5 0

Low of 75° here on the South Shore with a return of the Miami dew points to 76° . SSTs are already around 80° at just 10 am. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1350 76 220/ 8/ 8 1016.1 2/ 4 20 S Fire Island 1350 79 240/ 14/ 16 1016.3 3/ 4 Great South Bay 1330 78 240/ 12/ 14 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1350 74 72 250/ 8/ 10 1016.5 3/ 5 15 E Barnegat Li 1326 80 N/A 2/ 3

We did notice the LGA summer temperature departures pick up in 2016 relative to EWR and JFK. It’s interesting that there was a similar increase at BDR. Both stations have been tracking pretty closely since the super El Niño in 2016. They are our closest stations to the Long Island Sound. Maybe a result of the warmer SSTs on the sound and record dew point regime since the super El Niño. Could also be a local response to general circulation and temperature changes since then. LGA and BDR temperature departures for July and August since 2016 LGA......JUL....AUG 2016....+3.7....+5.3 2017....+0.7....-0.9 2018...+2.4....+4.7 2019....+4.1...+1.3 2020...+4.8 BDR....JUL....AUG 2016...+3.2...+5.1 2017...+0.9....-0.4 2018...+1.8....+4.6 2019...+4.0....+1.1 2020....+3.7

It also looks like the warmer SSTs are helping FRG go for the July 90° day record. The only other year since the records began in 2000 to reach 10 days was 2010. That had much more westerly flow compared to all the onshore flow this July. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 11 0 2 2020 10 6 3 2011 9 0

The local SSTs have been near 80°on a regular basis. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1950 190/ 14/ 17 1017.4 2/ 5 20 S Fire Island 1940 80 200/ 10/ 12 1018.2 Great South Bay 1930 79 220/ 8/ 14 N/A 23 SSW Montauk P 1940 76 76 240/ 10/ 12 1018.4 15 E Barnegat Li 1926 81 N/A 2/15

LGA getting closer to the July all-time record number of 90° days. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 18 0 2 1999 17 0 3 2016 15 0 - 2013 15 0 4 2019 14 0 - 2012 14 0 - 2011 14 0 - 2002 14 0 - 1955 14 0 - 1952 14 0 - 1949 14 0 2020 14 6

The crepe myrtles have also been doing very well here in SW Suffolk. Mr. Roddick, of Brooklyn’s Botanic Garden, actually had his first big arboreal surprise in the mid-1990s. Similar to his fig tree epiphany a few years later, he noticed that a gardener had failed to cut back the crepe myrtle trees, which normally froze in the winter. “The trees were budding,” Mr. Roddick said. “We were shocked.” Over the last 22 years, only once has an ice storm damaged the trees, he said. Crepe myrtles are native to Southeast Asia, India and parts of the Central and South Pacific. They are also very common in the American South, where in the summer, they splash the landscape with red, pink, lavender and white blossoms. Until recently, crepe myrtles in New York City would grow no larger than a shrub; gardeners would cut them down to the root for winter. Now the Brooklyn Botanic Garden grows several varieties year-round, and some have grown into 20-foot trees. They can be found throughout the city and the northern suburbs.

Yeah, record high dew points and minimum temperatures have become our new summer normal. ISP on track for the first 70° average dew point July.

Yeah, warmest July monthly minimums across the region for numerous rural, suburban, and urban stations. This has been a theme in recent years. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 58 7 2 2019 54 0 3 2013 53 0 - 2012 53 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 7 2 2019 61 0 - 2012 61 0 4 2013 60 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 63 7 2 2019 60 0 - 1931 60 0 - 1897 60 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 68 7 - 2008 68 0 3 2019 67 0 - 1994 67 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 7 2 2019 66 0 - 1994 66 0 - 1993 66 0 5 2011 65 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 64 7 - 2019 64 0 - 1994 64 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 67 7 2 2019 64 0 3 2015 63 0

Looks like the same pattern with the highest dew points remaining over Long Island.

Newark moves into 2nd place for wettest July. Only the 2nd time with this much rain and an 80° average temperature. Julys this wet have been much cooler at Newark. This is also the warmest July to feature a tropical storm in our area. Summer months with tropical cyclones are usually not as warm as this July was. But when we had warmer months with tropical cyclones like August 1955, the heatwave arrived before the tropical activity. This month, Fay came before the strongest heatwave of the season so far. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Avg Temp 1 1988 9.98 80.4 2 2020 9.93 80.1 3 1984 8.65 76.5 4 2004 8.39 75.0 5 1996 8.27 73.8 6 1975 8.02 76.9 7 1938 7.96 75.5 8 1961 7.95 77.3 9 1967 7.53 74.2 10 1969 7.11 74.2

The NEPAC warm blob is back again.

100° temperatures are only one metric by which to measure hot summers here. 2016 was a top 4 warmest July and August. We never went below 0 during the -10 February 2015. But it was much colder on average than February 2016 when NYC went below 0. Sometimes the monthly max or min isn’t aligned with the monthly average temperature departure.

Even if the flow was W to NW at JFK, the 850s aren’t forecast to be high enough to reach 100°. They look close to what we saw last week. The warm spots have been topping out near 97° with +20C 850s this July. Data for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY 2020-07-02 95 2020-07-05 96 2020-07-06 96 2020-07-18 95 2020-07-19 97 2020-07-20 97 2020-07-21 95 2020-07-22 95

Monday looks like the flow will start out W but gradually shift SW at JFK. So probably no 100° at JFK this July.

LGA has a chance to tie the all-time record of 11 days reaching 95° during July. Looks like the warm spots can add another 3 Sun-Tue. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1999 11 0 2 2020 8 8 3 2012 7 0 - 1955 7 0

A really extreme 10 minute rainfall if this site is functioning correctly. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNJEASTB19/table/2020-07-24/2020-07-24/daily 1:39 AM 71.7 F 71.0 F 97 % NW 0.6 mph 1.1 mph 30.10 in 4.98 in 1.99 in 0 0w/m² 1:44 AM 71.9 F 71.2 F 97 % NNE 0.3 mph 0.6 mph 30.11 in 7.25 in 2.69 in 0 0w/m² 1:49 AM 72.1 F 71.4 F 97 % North 0.3 mph 0.8 mph 30.12 in 7.68 in 3.20 in 0 0

Only the 2nd time that Newark had an 80° July that was so wet. Most top 10 wettest Julys are much cooler at Newark. So it’s no surprise that the average dew point for July is the 3rd highest. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Avg Temp 1 1988 9.98 80.4 2 1984 8.65 76.5 3 2004 8.39 75.0 4 1996 8.27 73.8 5 1975 8.02 76.9 6 1938 7.96 75.5 7 1961 7.95 77.3 8 2020 7.79 80.3 9 1967 7.53 74.2 10 1969 7.11 74.2 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Another top 10 warmest July around the area. Also notice the increasing number of 80° Julys at Philly, EWR, and LGA. Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 79.7 0 - 1955 79.7 0 2 2013 79.1 0 3 2010 79.0 0 4 1901 78.7 0 5 2011 78.5 0 6 2020 78.4 9 - 2012 78.4 0 7 2019 78.2 0 8 1949 78.0 0 9 2016 77.9 0 - 1900 77.9 0 10 1898 77.8 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.4 0 2 1994 82.1 0 3 2012 81.8 0 4 2010 81.7 0 5 2020 81.5 9 - 1995 81.5 0 6 1993 81.4 0 - 1955 81.4 0 7 2016 81.2 0 8 1999 81.1 0 9 2019 80.9 0 10 1988 80.7 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 1993 82.5 0 3 2010 82.3 0 4 1994 81.9 0 5 2013 80.9 0 6 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 7 2019 80.6 0 8 1955 80.5 0 9 1988 80.4 0 10 2020 80.2 9 11 2002 80.0 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 82.8 0 2 2020 82.2 9 3 1999 81.9 0 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2013 78.5 0 2 1994 78.4 0 3 2019 78.3 0 4 2010 78.0 0 5 2020 77.8 9 6 2011 77.6 0 7 2016 77.5 0 8 1955 77.4 0 9 2012 77.3 0 - 1999 77.3 0 10 1995 77.0 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 78.6 0 2 2019 78.1 0 3 2013 78.0 0 - 2010 78.0 0 4 2011 77.6 0 5 1994 77.3 0 6 2020 77.0 9 7 2016 76.8 0 8 1966 76.3 0 9 2012 76.2 0 10 2008 75.9 0 Time Series Summary for ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 77.0 9 2 2018 76.5 0 - 1955 76.5 0 3 2019 76.2 0 4 2013 75.9 0 5 1949 75.3 0 6 1988 75.0 0 7 2011 74.9 0 - 2010 74.9 0 - 2006 74.9 0 8 2012 74.8 0 9 1952 74.7 0 10 1964 74.4 0 Time Series Summary for POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 77.4 9 2 1955 77.2 0 3 2013 77.1 0 4 2016 76.5 0 5 2019 76.4 0 6 2010 76.0 0 - 1993 76.0 4 7 2011 75.8 0 - 1949 75.8 0 8 2012 75.7 0 9 2006 75.3 0 10 2005 75.1 0

2nd longest 95 degree day streak at LGA of 5 days. First time since 1991 with a 5 day run. It was the first streak this long not to reach 100°. LGA only made to 97° this time. 1991 reached 101°...1953....102°....1948....103°. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 95 for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1939-10-07 to 2020-07-22 1 6 1953-09-02 2 5 2020-07-22 - 5 1991-07-21 - 5 1948-08-29 3 4 2016-08-14 - 4 2013-07-20 - 4 2010-07-07 - 4 2008-06-10 - 4 2006-08-03 - 4 2005-08-14 2020-07-18 95 2020-07-19 97 2020-07-20 97 2020-07-21 95 2020-07-22 95

8th day to reach 95° this month at LGA puts it in 2nd place for July. Newark airport has been getting stuck at 93°- 94° recently due to the local bay breeze. LAGUARDIA NY Jul 22 Climate: Hi: 95 Lo: 78 Precip: 0.05 Snow: 0.0 NEWARK NJ Jul 22 Climate: Hi: 94 Lo: 78 Precip: Trace Snow: 0.0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Monthly Max 1 1999 11 101 2 2020 8 97 - 2012 7 101 - 1955 7 100

ISP getting close to its first 70° average dew point July. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=ISP&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&hours=0-23&dpi=100&_fmt=png

It would be nice if we could get access to this... https://ams.confex.com/ams/95Annual/webprogram/Paper261494.html Monday, 5 January 2015: 1:30 PM 225AB (Phoenix Convention Center - West and North Buildings) Phillip E. Shafer, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and D. E. Rudack Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB) The Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) has recently developed an experimental suite of station-based, Model Output Statistics (MOS) guidance from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model. To date, guidance for temperature, dewpoint, wind speed and direction, sky cover, probability of precipitation, and precipitation type has been developed. One element that is important to aviation interests and public safety is thunderstorms. This paper describes the development of a MOS thunderstorm system for the ECMWF model and its performance when compared to climatology and corresponding MOS forecasts from the Global Forecast System (GFS) and North American Mesoscale (NAM) models. Equations for the probability of a thunderstorm and the conditional probability of a severe thunderstorm for 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-h periods were developed over the CONUS from six years of ECWMF model output. Cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and severe weather reports collected by the Office of Climate Water and Weather Services (OCWWS) were used to define the predictand. Results from a k-fold cross-validation test indicate the new ECMWF thunderstorm guidance is superior to corresponding GFS MOS and NAM MOS forecasts, and in some cases, forecast skill and good reliability are achieved out as far as 240 hours in advance. This guidance will be incorporated into the experimental short-range and extended-range ECMWF MOS text bulletins which are restricted to NOAA/NWS use only, and will also be available to NWS forecasters in gridded format as part of an experimental ECMWF gridded MOS suite.

LGA moves into 2nd place for the most 95° days in July. Very unusual not to have any 100° days with 7 days reaching 95° or warmer. Almost like a summer version of February 2015 when several stations couldn’t drop to 0 with it being so cold. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Monthly Max 1 1999 11 101 2 2020 7 97 - 2012 7 101 - 1955 7 100