bluewave

Looks like this may be one of our windier Thanksgivings since 1971. White Plains gusting to 40 mph now. Should see more widespread gusts over 40 later this morning into the afternoon with the steepening low level lapse rates. Enjoy your Thanksgiving. It will be much milder than the near record cold last year. White Plains MOCLDY 44 32 62 NW30G40 29 2018 11/22 28 17 0.00 4th coldest high, 2nd coldest low for Thanksgiving

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4 Article Published: 27 November 2019 Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle Nature volume 575, pages647–651(2019)Cite this article Article metrics 23 Altmetric Metrics details M. K. Roxy, Panini Dasgupta, Michael J. McPhaden, Tamaki Suematsu, Chidong Zhang & Daehyun Kim Abstract The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most dominant mode of subseasonal variability in the tropics, characterized by an eastward-moving band of rain clouds. The MJO modulates the El Niño Southern Oscillation1, tropical cyclones2,3 and the monsoons4,5,6,7,8,9,10, and contributes to severe weather events over Asia, Australia, Africa, Europe and the Americas. MJO events travel a distance of 12,000–20,000 km across the tropical oceans, covering a region that has been warming during the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries in response to increased anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases11, and is projected to warm further. However, the impact of this warming on the MJO life cycle is largely unknown. Here we show that rapid warming over the tropical oceans during 1981–2018 has warped the MJO life cycle, with its residence time decreasing over the Indian Ocean by 3–4 days, and increasing over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent by 5–6 days. We find that these changes in the MJO life cycle are associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, the largest expanse of the warmest ocean temperatures on Earth. The warm pool has been expanding on average by 2.3 × 105 km2 (the size of Washington State) per year during 1900–2018 and at an accelerated average rate of 4 × 105 km2(the size of California) per year during 1981–2018. The changes in the Indo-Pacific warm pool and the MJO are related to increased rainfall over southeast Asia, northern Australia, Southwest Africa and the Amazon, and drying over the west coast of the United States and Ecuador. Fig. 1: A twofold expansion of the warm pool. Fig. 2: Changes in the MJO life cycle. Fig. 3: Correlation between MJO phase duration and ocean–atmosphere conditions. Fig. 4: Changes in global rainfall in response to the changes in MJO phase duration. Extended Data Fig. 1 Typical life cycle of the MJO. Extended Data Fig. 2 Annual average period of MJO events. Extended Data Fig. 3 Warm pool area in multiple datasets and breakpoint analysis. Extended Data Fig. 4 Correlation between MJO phase duration and ocean–atmosphere conditions, without removing the trends.

Some of the cells crossing the Sound had small hail or graupel.

Yeah, thunderstorm now in Bergen County with the steep mid-level lapse rates.

Looks like the strongest winds tomorrow should be between 10am and 2 pm. Temperatures rising to 50 or higher will steepen the low level lapse rates. So that’s when wind gusts into the 40’s could occur. NEW YORK CITY-KENNEDY KJFK GFS MOS GUIDANCE 11/27/2019 1200 UTC DT /NOV 27/NOV 28 /NOV 29 /NOV 30 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 45 53 36 46 31 TMP 56 55 52 52 50 47 45 49 51 50 45 43 40 38 37 42 44 43 39 36 33 DPT 49 46 43 43 40 35 32 31 29 26 24 26 27 24 23 21 19 17 16 14 12 CLD OV OV BK BK BK BK BK BK BK SC FW CL CL CL FW FW FW CL CL CL FW WDR 17 18 22 26 28 28 29 30 32 33 34 33 34 34 33 34 33 34 33 34 34 WSP 09 15 19 21 24 23 19 23 26 24 20 19 15 14 13 14 15 14 14 13 11

NYC is currently the 2nd coldest December of the 2010’s behind 2012 and close to 2018. But we didn’t get the record November snowstorms of 2012 and 2018. The cold departures have been shrinking as the 17th was our last -10 day. That’s when we lost the Arctic air. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 43.9 0 2 2019 44.0 4 3 2018 44.4 0 4 2014 45.3 0 - 2013 45.3 0 6 2017 46.6 0 7 2010 47.9 0 8 2016 49.8 0 9 2011 51.9 0 10 2015 52.8 0

2 years in a row making a top 10 snowiest November in Caribou.

Yeah, the cold minimums took the lead this month. NYC through 11-25 Max....50.5....-4.2 Min.....36.9....-5.4 Avg.....43.7....-4.8

Absolutely. Great day to get out and see the newly arrived snowy owls.

The first time Newark made it above 60 degrees since November 11th. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KEWR&table=1&num=168&banner=off Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2019-11-01 62 2019-11-02 53 2019-11-03 55 2019-11-04 57 2019-11-05 61 2019-11-06 56 2019-11-07 59 2019-11-08 41 2019-11-09 41 2019-11-10 53 2019-11-11 61 2019-11-12 55 2019-11-13 35 2019-11-14 46 2019-11-15 52 2019-11-16 43 2019-11-17 43 2019-11-18 43 2019-11-19 50 2019-11-20 51 2019-11-21 55 2019-11-22 53 2019-11-23 46 2019-11-24 45 2019-11-25 54 2019-11-26 61 so far

Here you go. I just wanted to highlight the unusual storm motion and strength. The Pacific Jet continues to make headlines. DISCUSSION...Models remain in good agreement with the historically deep low moving onto the coast of Southern Oregon this afternoon. Models continue to show a very deep low pressure center around 973 mb when it hits the coast, this is lower than the 975 mb low of the historic Nov 9-10 storm in 1975. The low is expected to hit the coast near Brookings late this afternoon, moving over northern Klamath and Lake counties a little before sunrise Wednesday as it continues to weaken after moving inland. Discussion on each weather element is below; WIND...Low pressure will rapidly intensify today. The storm will undergo bombogenesis, with the pressure lowering to around 973 mb by 4 pm PST. This is a greater than 40 mb drop in just 24 hours. A "bomb cyclone" is defined as a 24 mb drop in 24 hours, so this one is almost double that and wind impacts will be felt across the entire area. What makes this storm unique is the trajectory that it will take as it deepens and moves inland. Rather than a deepening system moving from SW to NE inside 130W, which typically bring our strongest coastal and inland wind storms in SW Oregon and northern California (and onshore gradients ALL along the coast), this one will be moving in from NW to SE as it moves inland this evening. This will focus the core of the strongest winds (and onshore gradient) for the headlands/beaches from Cape Blanco southward. Winds in those places will likely gust in excess of 75 mph with gusts in excess of 100 mph possible at exposed areas and headlands. This is a dangerous storm and we don`t want to downplay the winds for areas farther north, but an easterly (offshore) gradient usually results in the winds getting blocked somewhat by the terrain. We are still expecting gusts of 45 to 55 mph at North Bend, but that`s the reason it should be somewhat lower there.

The Pacific Jet continues to exhibit extreme behavior. This low is unprecedented in its strength and track. It`s also historic because storms of this magnitude have not been observed on this track in the last 40 years or more! What makes this storm unique is the trajectory that it will take as it deepens and moves inland. Rather than a deepening system moving from SW to NE inside 130W, which typically bring our strongest coastal and inland wind storms in SW Oregon and northern California (and onshore gradients ALL along the coast), this one will be moving in from NW to SE as it moves onshore Tuesday evening. This will focus the core of the strongest winds (and onshore

One problem is that the models can’t really reliably resolve the MJO accurately enough beyond 6-10 days. Once the MJO starts to become active, models go into short term correction mode and the older runs become worthless. We saw this often last winter with the models constantly playing catch up.

Not much skill from the weeklies beyond day 8-10. That’s why they show something different every time they are run. It’s actually a good thing so people don’t have to waste their money on an expensive subscription.

We had our moderate winter -EPO blocking intervals from 15-16 to 18-19. But nothing rivaling the extreme -EPO blocking in 13-14 and 14-15. That was the last time we had cold winters here. Seems like our strongest -EPO episodes since then have come in November.

It goes to show how Important storm tracks are for seasonal snowfall in NYC. Average winter temperatures over 3 months can mask other factors. The last 2 winters had similar average temperatures with much different snowfall outcomes. Especially across Suffolk which had a 60” season in 2018. But a colder than average winter this decade was a guarantee for a 50”+ season in NYC. DJF average temperature 35.1 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Seasonal Snow 2018-2019 36.3 20.5 2017-2018 36.2 40.9 2016-2017 39.3 30.2 2015-2016 41.0 30.8 2014-2015 31.4 50.3 2013-2014 32.9 57.4 2012-2013 36.8 26.1 2011-2012 40.5 7.4 2010-2011 32.8 61.9 2009-2010 33.8 51.4

Yeah, we have had much more success with major SSW’s later in the season.

Yeah, record cold temperatures now in the stratosphere above Finland.

Last winter was one virtual long range snowstorm after another.

These repeating weather patterns have become the new normal.

Haha. The 40N to 50N zone is acting like a gutter for those bowling balls. Always seems like models have an easier time getting storm tracks correct in that zone than the ones that track between 30N and 40N.

You know the Pacific Jet is on steroids when we get 3 bowling balls cross the country in 7-8 days.

Stormy pattern coming up. We are seeing a continuation of the supercharged Pacific Jet of recent years. First storm on Sunday followed by another on Wednesday. Strong winds may be an issue for the Thanksgiving parade balloons as the low stalls east of New England. 5+ SD Pacific jet max over Alaska Thursday

Even with the record +IOD, the forcing pattern this November was very similar to last. Notice the split forcing west of the dateline and over Africa. If this same forcing regime continues, then it would support a milder pattern after December 10th. It’s interesting how the same forcing can produce a cold November and mild December. But we’ll check back in early December to see if anything changes.

I wouldn’t rely too heavily on the CFS details. It usually flips around from run to run and day to day. I only pointed it out since matches the general EPO progression from last December.