bluewave

A very early first flakes of the season would match our recent years experience. 2017-2018, 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 were all defined by the snowfall which occurred outside DJF met winter. The most impressive snowfall records were in the fall and spring. March and April 2018 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2018 31.9 0 2 1967 23.3 1 3 2015 19.7 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1982 16.0 0 2 1996 9.6 0 3 2018 4.6 0 November 2018 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1898 19.0 0 2 1882 14.0 0 3 1938 12.8 0 4 2018 6.4 0 March 2019 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1967 21.8 0 2 1956 19.4 0 3 2015 18.6 0 - 2001 18.6 0 4 2005 18.5 0 5 2018 14.5 0 6 1993 13.7 0 7 2019 13.5 0 May 2020 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2020 T 0 - 1995 T 0 - 1977 T 0 - 1956 T 0 - 1946 T 0

Also root for the new parallel GFS if you want a stronger phase and early season first flakes potential. A weakness of the current GFS OP is that it has a weak bias with the SE Ridge. The stronger SE Ridge on the parallel GFS and Euro allow a quicker phase closer to the coast.

It would be the shortest duration between a T at the end of a snowfall season and T the beginning of the next. Getting a T on May 9th and also in late October in the same year would be a new record. So it will be interesting to see if could at least see a T with the storm.

Montana is one of the few spots able to set notable cold records.

October has been the most reliably negative AO month of the last 20 years.

While the US has become used to record October snowfalls in this low sea ice era, this year is in a class by itself. Seems to have started right around 2006 with the historic early Buffalo October LES Snowstorm. Then NNJ had the record early snows at the end of October 2008. Followed by the NYC record early snowstorm at the end of October 2011. There have been numerous record early October shows since then mainly across the Rockies and Midwest like this year so far. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_plots.html

The Euro finally came north with the heavy rain potential from Zeta later in the week.This is followed by possibly the first 30s of the season for NYC around the end of the month. Then temperatures quickly warm across the US to start November.

Meteostar http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KSYR I just saw them. The control and other members are more amped than the OP. Even if the low ends up hugging, it would be nice to see see a southern stream low phase or not get suppressed.

This will be a nice test to see if the primary storm tracks that have been locked in last few years can show more variation. The last 2 cold seasons were dominated by cutter, hugger, and suppressed southern stream storm tracks. The models have a SW bowling ball closed low that ejects to the east next week. At the same time, we have very strong PAC Jet along the Northern Tier. So it will be interesting to see if this low can run far enough north for a significant event here or it gets suppressed south like the 12z Euro. Benchmark track lows have been a rarity here since March 2018 ended.

Record high temperatures today well away from the marine influence. Pretty impressive for Syracuse to reach 80° in late October. Almanac for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY October 23, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 57 77 in 1991 34 in 1969

The sun just came out here in SW Suffolk.

These high dew points and record warm minimums go together. This was the 10th October record warm minimum or tie at Newark since 2014. There have also been numerous 2nd and 3rd place finishes. Newark Area, NJ Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2020-10-22DateHighest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/6 68 in 2017 67 in 1941 66 in 1959 10/7 70 in 2005 67 in 2018 66 in 2007+ 10/8 73 in 2017 66 in 2007 65 in 1990+ 10/9 72 in 2017 69 in 1990 68 in 1959 10/10 70 in 2018 66 in 2017 66 in 1990 10/11 69 in 1990 68 in 2018 63 in 2017+ 10/12 67 in 1990 64 in 1983 64 in 1969 10/13 70 in 1990 67 in 1983 63 in 1954 10/14 67 in 1990 65 in 1970 65 in 1954 10/15 69 in 2014 65 in 2017 64 in 1985 10/16 62 in 1960 60 in 2014 60 in 1992+ 10/17 63 in 1947 61 in 2013 60 in 2016 10/18 64 in 1947 63 in 1968 62 in 2016+ 10/19 64 in 2016 64 in 2012 63 in 2007+ 10/20 66 in 1984 60 in 2016 60 in 1994+ 10/21 62 in 1984 62 in 1979 61 in 2020 10/22 64 in 2020 64 in 1979 63 in 1984 10/23 64 in 2007 64 in 1979 62 in 1990+ 10/24 66 in 2017 63 in 1959 62 in 2001 10/25 62 in 1975 60 in 1971 58 in 1991 10/26 63 in 1971 62 in 2010 60 in 1946 10/27 63 in 1971 62 in 2010 61 in 1984 10/28 65 in 1971 63 in 1984 59 in 1953 10/29 61 in 2017 61 in 1984 61 in 1947 10/30 60 in 1946 58 in 2019 58 in 1935 10/31 62 in 2019 60 in 1989 59 in 1971+

Just like the summer with the warmest temperatures often missing to the north of NYC Metro. Chester, Chester Airport, CT. KSNC (NWS/FAA - OKX) 22 Oct 1:55 pm 77 66 69 S 8 10.00 CLR

Breaks of sun now in Suffolk slowing working to the west. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/PSUGOES_PA2/loop30v.html

Starting the day with the low temperatures close to +20. We are right around record warm minimums for the date. Newark....currently 65°..avg....46°....+19....record min...64°...

Adding a cutoff to the mix just adds to potential model error later in the forecast period.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq/#area_extent What is the difference between sea ice area and extent? Area and extent are different measures and give scientists slightly different information. Some organizations, including Cryosphere Today, report ice area; NSIDC primarily reports ice extent. Extent is always a larger number than area, and there are pros and cons associated with each method. A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. That is why if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger. A more precise explanation of extent versus area gets more complicated. Extent defines a region as “ice-covered” or “not ice-covered.” For each satellite data cell, the cell is said to either have ice or to have no ice, based on a threshold. The most common threshold (and the one NSIDC uses) is 15 percent, meaning that if the data cell has greater than 15 percent ice concentration, the cell is considered ice covered; less than that and it is said to be ice free. Example: Let’s say you have three 25 kilometer (km) x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells covered by 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice. Two of the three cells would be considered “ice covered,” or 100% ice. Multiply the grid cell area by 100% sea ice and you would get a total extent of 1,250 square km (482 square miles). Area takes the percentages of sea ice within data cells and adds them up to report how much of the Arctic is covered by ice; area typically uses a threshold of 15%. So in the same example, with three 25 km x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells of 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice, multiply the grid cell areas that are over the 15% threshold by the percent of sea ice in those grid cells, and add it up. You would have a total area of 662 square km (255.8 square miles). Scientists at NSIDC report extent because they are cautious about summertime values of ice concentration and area taken from satellite sensors. To the sensor, surface melt appears to be open water rather than water on top of sea ice. So, while reliable for measuring area most of the year, the microwave sensor is prone to underestimating the actual ice concentration and area when the surface is melting. To account for that potential inaccuracy, NSIDC scientists rely primarily on extent when analyzing melt-season conditions and reporting them to the public. That said, analyzing ice area is still quite valuable. Given the right circumstances, background knowledge, and scientific information on current conditions, it can provide an excellent sense of how much ice there really is “on the ground

The forecast details beyond 7 days may be lower skill than usual. It looks like the EPS is struggling with the wavelengths following the big Epsilon ET. So we’ll probably have to wait and see how the late October into early November forecast evolves. New run Old run

Temperatures are off to the races away from the marine layer. Wrightstown MOSUNNY 77 66 69 S7 Scranton SUNNY 75 59 57 S9 Hartford PTSUNNY 73 60 63 SW9

Temperatures around the area are starting out with minimums within a few degrees of the warmest daily minimums. These are the warmest low temperatures on this date since 2016. Newark Liberty DRZL/FOG 61 61 9 JFK.....low of 60 so far Newark Area, NJ Version: 15.4 (created 2020-07-31) Period of record: 1931 through 2019 10/21 62 in 1984 62 in 1979 58 in 2016 New York-Kennedy Airport Area, NY Version: 15.4 (created 2020-07-31) Period of record: 1948 through 2019 10/21 60 in 2016 60 in 1984 58 in 1979

Yeah, it was a sharp El Niño snowfall gradient favoring Central NJ. 86-87 BDR...22.1 ISP.....22.5 LGA....23.2 JFK....23.1 NYC...23.1 EWR...32.6 TTN...37.1

The 1980s was the only decade that NYC didn’t go over 30” in a single season. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf Max snowfall season in NYC 2010s....61.9 2000s....49.3 1990s....75.6 1980s....27.2 1970s....50.7 1960s....54.7 1950s....44.7 1940s....63.9 1930s....52.0 1920s....60.4 1910s....50.7 1900s....53.2 1890s....55.9 1880s....44.6 1870s....60.2

The last few days set the new all-time extent anomaly record.

Yeah, 1988 was the last time NYC dropped below 32° in October. It was also the most recent time POU and MPO dropped under 20° in October. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1936 28 0 2 1976 29 0 - 1925 29 0 - 1887 29 0 - 1879 29 0 3 1940 30 0 - 1869 30 0 4 1988 31 0 - 1975 31 0 - 1974 31 0 - 1969 31 0 - 1871 31 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1988 18 0 - 1974 18 0 - 1952 18 0 - 1936 18 0 2 1987 19 0 - 1985 19 0 - 1976 19 0 - 1972 19 0 - 1950 19 0 Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1917 12 0 2 1936 13 0 - 1907 13 0 3 1969 15 0 - 1939 15 0 - 1904 15 0 4 1988 16 1 - 1972 16 0 - 1933 16 0 - 1928 16 0 - 1916 16 0 - 1905 16 0