bluewave

Tough to keep the 60s away for long this time of year. KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 4/03/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 SUN 04| MON 05| TUE 06| WED 07| THU 08| FRI 09| SAT 10|SUN CLIMO N/X 38 59| 41 66| 43 62| 46 63| 47 64| 47 59| 46 63| 48 40 59

Yeah, the low humidity season usually peaks in March and April here. Things should gradually moisten back up going into next week. Then it looks like our next chance of significant rain again in about a week. We saw this in March when we went from very dry to wet again. The main take away is that dry patterns don’t have much staying power in our new wetter climate. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=157&network=NJ_ASOS&station=EWR&year=2020&var=min_rh&dir=below&thres=20&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Looks like another low dewpoint and low relative humidity special today. Dewpoints are forecast to drop to near 0 with temperatures getting back above 50°. We make a run on 60° tomorrow and get back into the 60s on Monday. So it’s tough to maintain the record cold of the last few days very long. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 4/03/2021 0600 UTC DT /APR 3 /APR 4 /APR 5 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 55 38 58 40 65 TMP 36 44 52 55 51 46 42 40 44 49 55 56 53 48 44 42 46 56 62 58 50 DPT 9 3 3 5 11 17 21 25 29 31 31 29 29 30 29 28 29 28 27 30 32

This is only the 3rd April since 1990 with a NYC high temperature below 40°. The other 2 years were 2003 and 1995. It was also the first -14 daily temperature departure in NYC since November 18th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Apr Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Lowest Max Temperature Missing Count 2021 39 28 2020 46 0 2019 45 0 2018 43 0 2017 48 0 2016 43 0 2015 43 0 2014 47 0 2013 43 0 2012 52 0 2011 44 0 2010 52 0 2009 48 0 2008 50 0 2007 41 0 2006 47 0 2005 50 0 2004 43 0 2003 37 0 2002 45 0 2001 43 0 2000 43 0 1999 46 0 1998 48 0 1997 42 0 1996 40 0 1995 39 0 1994 53 0 1993 41 0 1992 45 0 1991 46 0 1990 46 0

Outside of the unusual cold today and tomorrow, I don’t think anyone is forecasting dreary and cold for the whole month. The models have the blocking shifting from Greenland back to Canada over the next few weeks. So we trade in Greenland blocking for more +PNA blocking as the month progresses. We could easily get 60s like the models show coming up. Highs to our north will probably mean plenty of NW to NE flow. Maybe a low will eventually try to cut off underneath leading to several days of more easterly flow and rains. Northeastern New Jersey... Newark, NJ Ptcldy Sunny Mocldy Sunny Sunny Ptcldy Ptcldy /42 29/55 39/62 42/65 42/66 46/66 49/65 /00 00/00 10/10 10/00 00/10 20/20 20/30

Record cold today at LGA and EWR only a week after the record 80s heat last Friday.

This made the top 5 for greatest spring 7day temperature drops. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=162&month=spring&dir=cool&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Updated for March 2021. 3....2021...LGA.....9...JFK....10.....BDR....8

I believe this is the fastest NYC freeze chance after a spring (MAM) 80°day since 1978. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 2021-03-26 82 52 2021-03-27 69 50 2021-03-28 60 48 2021-03-29 55 45 2021-03-30 61 42 2021-03-31 67 50 2021-04-01 M M Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1978-04-01 82 47 1978-04-02 61 37 1978-04-03 40 31

These cool downs and blockier intervals following an early 80°+ day have become common in recent years. So the early April freeze coming up following the 80s last week isn’t a surprise. The first 80° at Newark has moved up nearly one month since the 1970s. The average back then was 4-23 and 3-30 since 2011. But the last freeze date has only moved up 4 days over the same period from 4-7 in the 70s to 4-3 since 2010. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 03-29 (1977) 09-16 (1971) 127 Mean 04-23 10-05 165 Maximum 05-19 (1975) 11-01 (1974) 204 1970 05-02 (1970) 80 10-08 (1970) 80 158 1971 05-11 (1971) 82 09-16 (1971) 85 127 1972 04-19 (1972) 87 09-27 (1972) 85 160 1973 04-19 (1973) 80 10-05 (1973) 82 168 1974 04-22 (1974) 81 11-01 (1974) 81 192 1975 05-19 (1975) 81 10-15 (1975) 84 148 1976 04-16 (1976) 82 09-20 (1976) 82 156 1977 03-29 (1977) 80 09-19 (1977) 84 173 1978 04-01 (1978) 82 10-23 (1978) 82 204 1979 04-23 (1979) 80 10-23 (1979) 80 182 1980 05-03 (1980) 83 09-23 (1980) 85 142 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 02-21 (2018) 09-28 (2014) 167 Mean 03-29 10-08 192 Maximum 04-18 (2015) 10-21 (2017) 231 2011 03-18 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 85 205 2012 04-15 (2012) 80 10-05 (2012) 81 172 2013 04-09 (2013) 85 10-07 (2013) 80 180 2014 04-13 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 87 167 2015 04-18 (2015) 82 10-09 (2015) 81 173 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223 2017 04-10 (2017) 82 10-21 (2017) 81 193 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 2019 04-08 (2019) 80 10-07 (2019) 80 181 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 09-28 (2020) 81 191 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 - - - Frost/Freeze Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-21 (1973) 10-19 (1976) 189 Mean 04-07 11-06 213 Maximum 04-17 (1980) 11-29 (1979) 235 1970 04-11 (1970) 32 11-23 (1970) 26 225 1971 03-26 (1971) 31 11-08 (1971) 32 226 1972 04-09 (1972) 29 10-20 (1972) 31 193 1973 03-21 (1973) 32 11-10 (1973) 31 233 1974 04-10 (1974) 31 10-19 (1974) 31 191 1975 04-13 (1975) 32 10-30 (1975) 32 199 1976 04-12 (1976) 27 10-19 (1976) 30 189 1977 04-09 (1977) 26 11-12 (1977) 32 216 1978 04-03 (1978) 31 11-25 (1978) 32 235 1979 04-08 (1979) 31 11-29 (1979) 32 234 1980 04-17 (1980) 30 11-03 (1980) 30 199 Frost/Freeze Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-24 (2017) 10-19 (2015) 196 Mean 04-03 11-08 217 Maximum 04-17 (2020) 11-28 (2016) 244 2010 03-27 (2010) 28 11-27 (2010) 32 244 2011 03-29 (2011) 32 10-31 (2011) 32 215 2012 03-27 (2012) 30 11-06 (2012) 27 223 2013 04-04 (2013) 31 11-04 (2013) 32 213 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-08 (2014) 32 205 2015 03-29 (2015) 25 10-19 (2015) 31 203 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 11-28 (2016) 32 231 2017 03-24 (2017) 31 11-10 (2017) 25 230 2018 04-11 (2018) 32 11-10 (2018) 32 212 2019 04-01 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 220 2020 04-17 (2020) 32 10-31 (2020) 32 196

This is the first two consecutive Marches in NYC that were this warm. The current 45.4° is the 14th warmest March average temperature for NYC. Last March was the 7th warmest. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 51.1 0 2 2012 50.9 0 3 1946 49.8 0 4 2016 48.9 0 5 1921 48.4 0 6 2010 48.2 0 - 1903 48.2 0 7 2020 48.0 0 8 2000 47.2 0 9 1979 46.9 0 10 1977 46.7 0 11 1973 46.4 0 12 1898 46.1 0 13 1985 45.8 0 14 2021 45.4 1

This has to be the most perfect February to March temperature reversal across the US on record.

This is one of those rare times that an October minimum temperature departure was lower than the whole DJF winter. 10-31 had a -14 low temperature departure in NYC. The winter lowest temperature departure was -13 on 1-29. Almanac for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY October 31, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 46 59 81 in 1946 41 in 1869 Min Temperature 32 46 62 in 1961 29 in 1925 Almanac for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY January 29, 2021 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 25 39 69 in 2002 13 in 1977 Min Temperature 14 27 50 in 2002 -0 in 1873

It was a 2 part event. Morning warm front followed by evening cold front. Most impressive rains here were with the morning warm front.

This was the first time that portions of Long Island like Islip had 1.00”+ of rain since Christmas. 2021-03-28 57 47 52.0 9.1 13 0 1.05 2020-12-25 59 32 45.5 12.5 19 0 1.05

Staten Island Mesonet gusting to 54 mph. Wind: W at 21 mph Gust: 54 mph

MCGUIRE AFB,NJ (WRI) ASOS reports gust of 61 knots (70.2 mph) from WSW @ 2335Z -- KWRI 282335Z 25030G61KT 220V280 10SM SQ VCTS FEW065 FEW090 21/15 A2952 RMK LTG DSNT W PRESRR SLP996 53005

The warm front just came through MMU. 17:17 66.2 58.6 5.8 SW 29.27 29.47 Mist 3.00 600 OK 16:45 62.6 57.2 0.0 N 29.28 29.48 Mist 1.25 200 OK 15:45 60.8 56.5 0.0 N 29.30 29.50 Mist 0.75 200 O

It’s interesting how warm Novembers and Marches go together. November was the warmest on record in NYC. So it’s no surprise that March is running well above average. Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Departure 2020-2021 53.0 39.2 34.8 34.2 44.7 +2.9 2015-2016 52.8 50.8 34.5 37.7 48.9 +6.4 2001-2002 52.7 44.1 39.9 40.6 44.1 +1.6 1979-1980 52.5 41.1 33.7 31.4 41.2 -1.3 1948-1949 52.4 38.3 38.6 38.6 42.8 +0.3 1975-1976 52.3 35.8 27.3 39.9 44.4 +1.9 2011-2012 51.9 43.3 37.3 40.9 50.9 +8.4 2006-2007 51.9 43.6 37.5 28.3 42.2 -0.3 1994-1995 51.9 42.2 37.5 31.6 45.0 +2.5 1931-1932 51.9 40.9 43.2 36.1 37.3 -5.2 1902-1903 51.4 32.4 30.5 33.5 48.2 +5.7 2009-2010 51.1 35.9 32.5 33.1 48.2 +5.7 1999-2000 50.8 39.9 31.3 37.3 47.2 +4.7

My heaviest downpours in a while here in SW Suffolk. Looks like some areas picked up around .50 last hour.

Getting some heavy elevated convection along the warm front.

The lower dewpoints for a good portion of the month finally allowed the maximum temperature departures to exceed the minimums. High temperatures were able to beat expectations. The drier conditions at night allowed the lows to get closer to normal. NYC...max...+4.1....min...+1.6 HPN...max...+3.9....min..+2.0 LGA....max...+3.2....min...+2.3 EWR....max..+4.1....min...+1.8 JFK.....max...+3.6....min...+0.5 ISP......max...+4.4.....min...+1.4 BDR....max....+3.5.....min...+1.3

This will be the first time that we had 4 freezes in 6 years following the first 80° of the season. These very early 80° degree readings make this possible. So we get these big temperature swings as lows in the 20s are forecast next week. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First 80° Value Next Freeze Value 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 - - 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 4-17(2020) 32 2019 04-08 (2019) 80 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 3-6(2018) 29 2017 04-10 (2017) 82 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 4-5(2016) 26

This was a top 3 or 4 warmest March temperature for all our stations. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 89 0 2 1998 86 0 - 1990 86 0 3 2021 84 5 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1998 86 0 - 1945 86 0 2 1990 85 0 3 1921 84 0 4 2021 82 5 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 86 0 2 1998 83 0 - 1990 83 0 3 2021 82 5 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 85 0 2 1998 82 0 3 2021 81 5 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 82 0 2 1998 81 0 3 1991 79 0 4 2021 78 5 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 84 0 2 1998 80 0 3 2021 79 5 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1998 82 1 - 1990 82 1 2 2021 80 5

HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport 51 MPH 0501 PM 03/26 CWOP Norwalk 49 MPH 0513 PM 03/26 CWOP Bridgeport Airport 47 MPH 0617 PM 03/26 ASOS Danbury Airport 46 MPH 0322 PM 03/26 ASOS ...New Haven County... New Haven 63 MPH 0628 PM 03/26 CWOP Lighthouse Point 52 MPH 0648 PM 03/26 WXFLOW Meriden Airport 45 MPH 0554 PM 03/26 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Old Tappan 51 MPH 0143 AM 03/26 CWOP Fair Lawn 49 MPH 0535 PM 03/26 CWOP Teterboro Airport 49 MPH 0559 PM 03/26 ASOS Oakland 45 MPH 0305 PM 03/26 CWOP ...Essex County... Caldwell 48 MPH 0520 PM 03/26 ASOS ...Union County... Newark Airport 59 MPH 0612 PM 03/26 ASOS Linden Airport 48 MPH 0615 PM 03/26 AWOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... Fordham 50 MPH 0400 PM 03/26 NYSM ...Kings County... Brooklyn College 50 MPH 0320 PM 03/26 NYSM ...Nassau County... Bayville 59 MPH 0541 PM 03/26 WXFLOW (45 feet) Carle Place 55 MPH 1050 AM 03/26 CWOP Wantagh 50 MPH 0600 PM 03/26 NYSM ...New York County... Midtown Manhattan 49 MPH 0645 PM 03/26 NYSM Washington Heights 45 MPH 0925 PM 03/26 AWS ...Orange County... Stewart Airport 54 MPH 0445 PM 03/26 AWOS Warwick 50 MPH 0440 PM 03/26 NYSM Montgomery Airport 47 MPH 0334 PM 03/26 AWOS ...Queens County... Kew Garden Hills 56 MPH 0440 PM 03/26 NYSM NYC/La Guardia 53 MPH 0647 PM 03/26 ASOS NYC/JFK Airport 52 MPH 0640 PM 03/26 ASOS Jackson Heights 46 MPH 0419 PM 03/26 CWOP ...Richmond County... 2 SE Elizabeth 52 MPH 0418 PM 03/26 NDBC College of Staten Island 51 MPH 0630 PM 03/26 NYSM ...Suffolk County... Eatons Neck 67 MPH 0856 PM 03/26 WXFLOW (71 feet) Stony Brook 65 MPH 0457 PM 03/26 CWOP (159 feet) Farmingdale Airport 53 MPH 0503 PM 03/26 ASOS Westhampton Airport 52 MPH 0734 PM 03/26 ASOS Islip Airport 49 MPH 0531 PM 03/26 ASOS Ridge 49 MPH 0705 PM 03/26 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 46 MPH 0701 PM 03/26 CWOP Great South Bay 45 MPH 0705 PM 03/26 WXFLOW ...Westchester County... Tappan Zee Light 14 52 MPH 0338 PM 03/26 WXFLOW Croton 49 MPH 0528 PM 03/26 WXFLOW White Plains Airport 46 MPH 0515 PM 03/26 ASOS ...Connecticut... ...Maritime Stations... 1 ESE Norwalk 51 MPH 0827 PM 03/26 WXFLOW 2 SSE New Haven 48 MPH 0518 PM 03/26 NOS-PORTS ...New Jersey... Jersey City 48 MPH 0428 PM 03/26 CWOP ...New York... Robbins Reef, NJ 62 MPH 0242 PM 03/26 NOS-PORTS Larchmont Harbor 55 MPH 0543 PM 03/26 WXFLOW City Island 51 MPH 0600 PM 03/26 CWOP Fire Island CG 51 MPH 0711 PM 03/26 WXFLOW Kings Point 50 MPH 0606 PM 03/26 NOS-NWLON Point O Woods YC 47 MPH 0834 PM 03/26 WXFLOW Shinnecock 47 MPH 0829 PM 03/26 WXFLOW &&