bluewave
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The -PNA -AO patterns from 1950 to 1970 didn’t have the Southeast ridge pattern that we have seen frequently during the 2020s so far.
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The 0z Euro was more suppressed to the south with the major heat. We will need to see this period get within the 120 hr window for details. The GFS hasn’t been as warm. We have seen the models initially go really warm day 6-10 and 11-15 before dialing it back as we got closer. But even a compromise between the models could give the warm spots their first 95° of season.
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There have been a few scenarios that we have been experiencing in recent years with these over the top warm ups. The first one is that heat builds from Mexico to the Western US and moves into Canada and the Northern Tier but never really gets here. This happens when the ridge is so strong to the north that it leaves a weakness underneath. This is where we get onshore flow here keeping the highs lower. Then the other is when this pattern is accompanied with enough height rises here that the warmth starts out in the West and travels into Canada and then southeast down to our area. Our traditional heatwaves from the past would start out in the Southern Plains and move across Chicago and the Great Lakes into our area a few days later.
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With the showers coming through this morning Newark has had at least a T of rain on every weekend since the beginning of March. Newark Jun 8-9……….T Jun 1-2……….T May 25-25…..T May 18-19…..0.04 May 11-12…0.38 May 4-5…..0.31 Apr 27-28…0.11 Apr 20-21…0.05 Apr 13-14…0.04 Apr 6-7…….T Mar 30-31…0.01 Mar 23-24….3.10 Mar 16-17…..T Mar 9-10….1.46 Mar 2-3…..1.31
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These over the top wam ups have become more common in recent years as the shore of Hudson Bay reached 95° before Newark did this year.
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Yeah, the 2022-2023 winter had the lowest snowfall on record by a wide margin in NYC and BOS for such a strong December -AO pattern. December -AO lower than -2.000 and seasonal snowfall 2022…..-2.719…….NYC…..2.3”…..BOS….12.4” 2010..…-2.631…….NYC…..61.9”….BOS….81.0” 2009….-3.413…….NYC…..51.4”….BOS….35.7” 2005….-2.104……..NYC….40.0”….BOS…..39.9” 2000….-2.354…….NYC…..35.0”….BOS….45.9” 1995….-2.127……..NYC……75.6”….BOS…107.6” 1976…..-2.074……NYC…..24.5”…..BOS….58.0”
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Another over the top warm up which allows for enough onshore flow to reduce the 90° potential.
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First time that Newark started June in the top 5 warmest with no 90s. Newark June 1-7 warmest averages and maximum temperature 2010….77.9….94 1999…75.9….99 2024…75.8….89 1989….75.7….94 2021….75.4….97
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We are still feeling the effects of the major stratospheric disruption back in March. That is pretty much the one thing holding back the arrival of any major 95°+ heat at this point. It has been such a strong pattern recently that the only cool patch in a record sea of warm Atlantic is to our east. New run Old run
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Ensembles beginning to pick up on the stronger blocking lingering with more low pressure east of New England which the OP runs have been showing for mid-June. New run Old run
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These 11 double digit positive temperature departure months since December 2015 have presented significant forecast challenges for the meteorological community. I can remember looking at the EPS weekly forecast for December 2015 in late November and seeing no indication of the historic warmth which was to follow. The model basically had a stock looking El Niño composite for December. Vanilla above normal temperatures but nothing too extreme. Then we wound up with the +13.3 and 70° warmth later in the month around NYC with people wearing shorts.The model completely missed the record MJO 4-7 activity which interacted with the El Niño forcing to create that epic standing wave. It had that same stock El Niño composite looks for last winter which I was skeptical of based on past performance. For all these months near and over +10, I am not aware of any modeled or forecaster issued long range forecasts indicating the month would see such high departures. Temperatures this warm usually result in near to the warmest month on record for the season at locations in the maximum departure zones. This is why most of the seasonal forecasts have been underestimating the winter warmth which has occurred since 15-16. Pointing this out is in no way meant to disparage other forecasts. It’s just meant to point out the challenges in making winter forecasts over this much warmer period. My approach has been to look at the long range forecasts like last December and point out that the models were likely underestimating the warmth. I started posting about the warmer risks to the seasonal forecast than the models were showing last fall. Since we have seen the models miss the longer range MJO 4-7 forcing and then play catch up as we got closer in to the numerous events. Even knowing this, I wasn’t sure exactly how high the departures would go last winter. I was thinking that December was going to beat expectations based on the past MJO 4-7 activity with the record WPAC warm pool. But it took me until near the end of first week of December to go for +10 or greater departures along the Northern Tier. So trying to pinpoint monthly departures this high a few weeks to months before that months starts is very challenging. It’s probably why these extreme departures aren’t able to be correctly forecast in long range and seasonal forecasts.
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Whenever we start seeing those deep troughs out West big wam ups usually follow. But sometimes it can take time when there is a persistent upper low east of New England. So at least in the initial phases of the pattern there could be more of an onshore flow pattern especially east of NYC. If that low gets out of the way completely day 11-15, then it’s off to the races especially when the source region has been setting record after record in recent months.
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Yes, I have also noticed that the OP Euro can be too amped with closed lows at times near the Northeast coast day 6-10. But I have also seen the ensembles smoothing out the heights at times too much and can miss closed low positions. The ensembles seem to do better when there isn’t a closed low to deal with. The OP GFS and CMC also have a closed low exiting around the same time period but are a little further east than the Euro. So the further east this feature gets the quicker and higher temperatures we will experience. I only bring this up since it has been such a persistent feature since late March. Even a small influence from a low to our east could result in more onshore flow especially east of NYC. This is just the day 6-10 period. So it’s possible the 11-15 means eventually allow the ridge to expand enough into our region for the first major 95°+ heat of the season. I would just like to see the upper low to our east actually get far enough away for a deep SW flow to develop which is possible if the low kicks far enough east.
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While we like to focus on the historic 9 warmer to record winters in a row since the 15-16 super El Niño here in the Northeast, the extreme winter warmth across other CONUS regions has also been unprecedented. Before this period, having near a +10 monthly departure for a U.S. climate station would be a rare to uncommon event. We can remember the double digit departure months occurring much less frequently in the past. January 2006 in the Upper Midwest and March 2012 come to mind. Now these very high monthly winter departures have been happening yearly with multiple months in the same winter recording such departures. We have had a remarkable 11 winter months across varying ENSO states since December 2015 meeting this criteria for one or more climate stations. It’s even more impressive to see these monthly temperature departures occurring in the warmest climate normals period. Dec…2015….NYC….+13.3 JAN…2017….BTV…..+11.0 FEB….2017….ORD….+10.3 FEB…..2018…ATL….+10.6 FEB….2019…MGM….+10.5 JAN….2020…YAM….+9.8 DEC….2021….DFW….+13.2 JAN….2023….DXR….+12.3 FEB….2023…..SSI…..+9.8 DEC….2023….INL…..+15.8 FEB…..2024….FAR…..+17.5
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The magnitude of any warm up will be dependent on how much of a trough remains to the east of New England. The smoothed ensemble means show less influence. But the OP runs have been showing a stronger closed low to our east. Since models can really struggle with closed lows beyond 5 days, the details will probably have to wait.
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This strong of a block near the pole for the weekend would be a great pattern during the winter.
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Yeah, more and more studies are coming around to the work of Dr. Hansen.
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First 70° dew points of the season for many around our area today as May had the highest monthly dew points on record around the world.
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Yeah, this is one of those events where the South Shore did much better than points further west. Radar estimates from Fire Island are coming in near 2.50”.
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A direct hurricane strike on Long Island New England with eye crossing the coast hasn’t happened since Bob back in 1991 and Gloria in 1985. Very big height rises east of New England from the summer into fall have been steering all the major cat 3-5 hurricanes toward Florida and the Gulf Coast. Sandy got forced inland near ACY due to the record block and phase and gave us the RFQ with the historic storm surge. We have had numerous other systems run inland to our south and dump record rains here. I am not sure how much longer this predominant hurricane and tropical storm track will continue for. But the old saying is that it only takes one so we always have to be on guard.
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We could set the daily PWAT record with values approaching 2.00” possible along with dewpoints near 70°.
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The Euro seasonal just updated about an hour ago and is going wet this summer with plenty of tropical moisture input. So it looks like a warm and wet pattern rather than dry heat. Onshore flow and higher dewpoints with a drought feedback ridge near the Rockies and ridge near the Northeast. With very active tropical cyclone tracks undercutting the ridge.
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The models look like they will have a dueling ridge pattern. One ridge anchored to the record heat and drought in Mexico. And another ridge near the Northeast. But we may continue with enough high pressure just east of New England for onshore flow especially east of NYC.
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The next week to 10 days will feature a strong +PNA -NAO pattern which would be welcomed during the winter. But we are getting some hints of a pattern change to warmer approaching the 20th. The +PNA pattern weakens along with the -NAO. So it will be interesting to see if we finally start getting the Nino to La Niña transition warmer summer pattern as we approach the 20th.
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This goes to what I have been saying in earlier posts in this thread. The winter 13-14 and 14-15 Northeast Pacific blocking pattern has shifted to the summer. Some were expecting a repeat of those winters in 19-20 when the marine heatwave exceeded those levels during the summer. But the pattern weakened heading into the fall and winter allowing the MJO 4-7 and supercharged SPV to dominate during the 19-20 winter. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-15820-w Summer 2019 observations show a rapid resurgence of the Blob-like warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that produced devastating marine impacts in the Northeast Pacific during winter 2013/2014. Unlike the original Blob, Blob 2.0 peaked in the summer, a season when little is known about the physical drivers of such events
