bluewave

There seems to be an inverse relationship between the lowest fall RONI and winter temperatures and snowfall here in the Northeast since 2010. So the weaker La Ninas for each multiyear grouping have been warmer with less snowfall and the stronger ones colder. This has worked out for each of the 3 La Niña multiyear events. The other feature which stands out is that the coldest and snowiest La Ninas relative to the others had the highest amplitude MJO phases 4-6 in October. Plus all the La Niña winters have been steadily warming since 2010. With all the La Niña winters since 11-12 having been warmer than average in the Northeast. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt Coldest and snowiest winters relative to the others in multiyear group bolded 2010-2011 winter followed fall RONI of -1.70…NYC DJF AVG T….32.8°…SN…61.9” 2011-2012 winter followed fall RONI of -1.05….NYC DJF AVG T……40.5°…SN…7.4” 2016-2017 winter followed fall RONI of -1.09…..NYC DJF AVG T…..39.3°…SN..30.2” 2017-2018 winter followed fall RONI of -1.25 NYC DJF AVG T……36.2°…SN..40.9” 2020-2021 winter followed fall RONI of -1.52 NYC DJF AVG T….36.1°….SN..38.6” 2021-2022 winter followed fall RONI of -1.24 NYC DJF AVG T……37.1°…..SN…17.9” 2022-2023 winter followed fall RONI of -1.08 NYC DJF AVG T……41.0°….SN..2.3”

Looks like the 100° heat stays suppressed to our south through July 4th. We’ll have to wait and see if the 100° heat this past week was just a one-off or the appetizer for more 100° heat in July. There are examples of both outcomes from the past with early season June 100° heat in our area. Past 5 days axis of 100° heat across the area Next 10 days 100° heat stays south

The Southeast ridge was suppressed further south than usual into Mexico resulting in the record heat there back in May.

This was pretty typical living in Long Beach. Today seems like a a combination of factors enhancing the winds on Long Island. There is the localized Ambrose Jet component within a larger NY bight wind response due to the deepening low to the west. So we get the overlap expanding the stronger winds further east across Long Island. Farmingdale PTSUNNY 82 70 66 S21G38

I grew up in Long Beach and got used to the much stronger winds between 4-7 pm on summer days like this. The trick was eating your lunch by 1pm so there wasn’t as much blowing sand. Bike riding along boardwalk and near the beach was a challenge was so much blowing sand at times. The ocean conditions would get pretty chaotic with numerous lifeguard rescues. People parking near the beach quickly figured out that it wasn’t a good idea to keep the convertible top down.

It looks like the continuing record WPAC warm pool and marine heatwave east of Japan are contributing to the very strong recent La Niña 500 mb background state. We just set the new lowest -PNA on record for the month of May. Notice the marine heatwave reintensifying east of Japan. https://bsky.app/profile/antmasiello.bsky.social/post/3ku6v5pjkvc2a Anthony Masiello @antmasiello.bsky.social The monthly PNA index for May was the lowest in the CPC dataset (since 1950), beating the record from 1964. Notice a lot of the minimums are post-Niño years.

Gusting to 33 mph in Farmingdale. The Ambrose Jet usually peaks between 4-7 pm. So most spots near the shore will see gusts in the 30-40 mph range later on. Some models have peak gust potential over 40 in a few spots further east as we head into the evening. You can see the surf picking up with white caps in Long Beach with a very refreshing breeze for the boardwalk fair. I went to one of those many years ago with no breeze and couldn’t stay more than 15 minutes. So I much more enjoy days like this with a refreshing breeze. https://nysea.com/live-cam/

It comes with the territory of living right near the ocean. Since 2010 to 2013 we haven’t seen that much deep westerly flow with our heat waves. Very strong onshore component to the winds during the warm seasons in recent times. JFK is just weeks away from its longest streak on record of not reaching 100°. But I am not sure if the ASOS was relocated back in the 90s making it more susceptible to sea breezes. So there can be a combination of factors at play here. The part of the airport near Ozone Park is several degrees warmer than where the ASOS is currently located in a marshy area next to Woodmere. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Period of record: 1948-07-17 to 2024-06-22 1 4016 1999-07-06 through 2010-07-03 2 4009 1972-07-24 through 1983-07-15 3 3992 2013-07-19 through 2024-06-22 4 3610 1983-08-21 through 1993-07-08 5 2210 1966-07-05 through 1972-07-22 6 2185 1993-07-11 through 1999-07-04 7 963 1960-05-02 through 1962-12-20 8 857 1955-03-18 through 1957-07-21 9 817 1951-11-07 through 1954-01-31 10 736 1948-08-28 through 1950-09-02

We have been seeing several competing influences in recent months with all the record marine heatwaves ongoing. We knew last summer was probably our best shot at seeing something closer to normal temperature wise with the very strong developing El Niño and record blocking pattern in Canada. This year the expectation was for much more heat as has been the case with El Niño to La Niña transitions in the past. But May broke out of the mold and we didn’t see the more typical low to mid 90s from later in the month into the start of June like in past transition years. This month featured a 598 dam ridge which tied the record from 2018 and 2013. The initial heat earlier in the week went to our north in over the top fashion which has been common in recent years. As the ridge began to weaken the next surge of heat directly crossed our region with 100° record heat. It’s a little different from past years with this over the top warm ups to see such a quick reversal. Now we are seeing more of a trough axis over SE Canada which recently experienced the all-time monthly and seasonal heat in spots. So we are getting several days of cooler weather focused in New England before another warm up. But we are back to an older pattern of heat arriving from the SW as the ridge axis shifts to our sound and west. Models are struggling exactly how far north each succeeding warm surge will get with plenty of convection focused just near or north of the 78 and 80 corridor. The big question going forward is how much heat from the SW makes it into the region as we move into July. Many of the 100° Junes at Newark from the past were also preceded by warmer conditions than we got this late May into June. Some of the 100° Junes were actually the warmest part of the summer. But other years after the 100s in June went into even higher maxes later on. Now we have several competing marine heatwaves for forcing. So the extent of our heat going forward may come down to the placement of the convection riding over the top of the ridge. Where the boundary between major 95°+ heat and more clouds and convection sets up will determine the outcome. Plus we’ll have to see where the dominant Atlantic tropical storm and hurricane tracks set up as the season gets more active over time. El Nino to La Niña transitions May 25 to June 7th Newark high temperature 2024….89° 2016….96° 2010…95° 2005…91° 1998….90° 1995….91° Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending May through September with 100° in June 2021 96 103 97 99 91 103 2011 92 102 108 98 88 108 1994 95 102 99 95 92 102 1993 93 102 105 100 100 105 1952 83 102 98 92 94 102 1943 92 102 95 97 93 102 1988 94 101 101 99 86 101 1966 83 101 105 95 91 105 2024 90 100 M M M 100 1959 92 100 93 96 93 100 1953 91 100 99 102 105 105 1934 93 100 98 90 85 100

Newark made it to 100° on Friday and Hillsborough-Duke reached 100° Saturday. Models have a 3rd day approaching 100° today in NJ. The combination of steep gradient, Ambrose Jet, and strong to severe convection pressing in from the west will produce very strong southerly flow this afternoon. All the guidance show widespread 30-40 mph gusts near the South Shore beaches. Some of the higher resolution models like the HRRR and NAM 3km have gusts approaching 50mph at the beaches later. Very rough surf and dangerous rip currents so the lifeguards will probably limit access to the water as the winds pick up.

The HRRR has an interesting set up for Sunday. Highs near 100° in NE NJ with one of the strongest Ambrose Jets that we have seen this time of year. The potential for scattered severe storms could also enhance the wind potential. The model has 40 mph gusts near the Long Island beaches and even some 50mph gusts. It’s very rare to get 50 mph gusts from an Ambrose Jet alone so this may be the interaction with storms pressing in from the west.

The Mesonet sites and COOPs around NYC came in just under the 100° at Newark. Newark…100° Harrison…99° Astoria….97° Corona…98° Fresh Kills….99° Queensbridge….98°

Picked up .86 in 30 minutes. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khvn

My heaviest downpour of the month so far with a drop from 92° earlier to 75°.

I think the silver lining is that we haven’t had a legit drought here since 2001-2002 when NYC had actual water restrictions around D3. So chances are this is more of a dry vegetation issue like we have seen in recent years. I know D0 to D2 has resulted in brown lawns periodically. But more often than not, these periods ended with extremes in rainfall which were more impressive than the dry periods which came before them. I guess the big question now is specifically how much heat and dryer conditions will come before any shift to wetter? In any event a string of 90°+ days with 100°days thrown into the mix can really drop the soil moisture near the surface. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0432 PM EDT FRI JUN 21 2024 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 100 DEGREES SET IN 1953. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1931 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI).

98° at the NY micronet station in Corona, Queens and 97° in Astoria. https://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Corona Temp: 98°F Astoria Temp: 97°F

Most of the guidance focuses the convection next few weeks north of I-78. So maybe scattered convection from time to time around the drier areas of Central NJ. Probably have to be patient for a reversal of this recent dry vegetation stretch.

Already up to 90° at the Brownsville micronet in Brooklyn with numerous 89° readings at the surrounding stations.

Islip is currently in 1st place and Newark in 2nd. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-06-20 70.4 0 - 2008-06-20 70.4 0 2 1999-06-20 70.3 0 - 1994-06-20 70.3 0 - 1984-06-20 70.3 0 3 1973-06-20 70.1 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1994-06-20 77.1 0 2 2024-06-20 75.6 0 3 1984-06-20 75.3 0 4 1973-06-20 75.2 0 5 2021-06-20 74.8 0

Yeah, it looks like the warm spots today are in the 98° to 100° range today with the highest temperatures possible on Sunday. Still looking like a very strong Ambrose Jet event on Sunday with 30 to 40 mph gusts at the South Shore beaches.

With temperatures already near 80° at 7am, the warm spots in NJ around Newark and Harrison have a shot at their first 100° of season today like the guidance indicates.

The high of 97° at Newark beat the guidance by a few degrees. More westerly flow than forecast verified. So we are back to the old pattern from the past. With increasing heat through Sunday Newark and other warm spots in NJ should get closer 100° with record highs possible especially on Sunday. The record was 98° today and came up one degree short. The expansion of D0 drought conditions into NJ helped out today. Also look at the growth of drought conditions to our SW which will be the source region for the heat. The core of the heat next few days over +20C at 850 mb will go directly through the area instead of over the top like last few days. https://threadex.rcc-acis.org Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2024-06-19DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 6/20 98 in 2012 97 in 2024 97in 1953 6/21 100 in 1953 99 in 2012 99 in 1949 6/22 101 in 1988 97 in 1943 96 in 2012 6/23 97 in 1965 94 in 1994 93 in 2015+

First 95° of the season for the NYC boroughs at the Corona micronet station. https://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc

Yeah, I observed it for years living in Long Beach from the 70s into 00s. But I never knew it had a specific name until the papers became available online after the internet began. I lived not far from East Broadway and would often have blowing sand down my street as the afternoon progressed. This made it difficult at times getting lunch at the snack shop located on the beach with all the blowing sand. There were always cars parked near the beach that would be covered in sand. https://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_144401.htm