I’m not sure why you, as a meteorologist, are cherry picking models which are outliers of the growing consensus to minimize the storm. Yes there are failure modes, but the preponderance of the evidence is showing a substantial event for N IL.
I think northern LOT is in a 6” floor, high ceiling scenario. If the low remains intact a bit longer, there will be some sig totals. W LOT could jackpot by catching both the initial heavier band and any redevelopment for a secondary low.
Feels like it’s been forever since I have been eagerly awaiting model runs late in the evening. If nothing else, it’s nice to have the “thrill of the chase” again.