coastalplainsnowman

I remember being out in Stony Brook a few days after this storm. While I thought I got crushed at home, when I got out there it was like 150% of what I'd gotten, just crazy. And that was a day or two afterwards. Some crazy gradients, right?

Guys I just found this, which you may already be aware of. Is the score actually calculated as shown below? If so, it looks like it is calculated based strictly on the depth of the snow, the area of the land it covers, and the population inhabiting said land, and without regard to whether the location is within the 'northeast.' Edit: It does look like this is how the score is calculated. ChatGPT does a great job explaining this with examples. It mentions that it calibrates to account for population growth as well.

I am really surprised that there wasn't more discussion on the Blizzard of '96 here today! 30 years ago, so maybe it's just that a lot of posters on here are too young to remember it. Check out the NESIS score on this bad boy: 11.78. While there were quite a few big storms between 2000-2018 which were similar enough to it around here, it stands out for me if for no other reason that it was the first foot+ storm for most of us in the city on south / east since the Blizzard of '83 nearly 13 years prior (1993 "Storm of the Century" was ruined by sleet for us.) For many of us who barely remember 1978, there was 1978 and 1983, and that was it, til 1996. I think the last foot+ around here was what, 2018? Imagine if we didn't have another one til 2031 what this place would be like when it happens. Seeing >20" snow - and the things that it covered, like Christmas decorations that neighbors had ill-advisedly not taken down -- "the soldiers are covered!!" was unreal. Stuff like that is why I'm here. Ok that's all I got.

30 years ago tonight, something really big was on our doorstep, I just can't quite remember what it was.

Thanks. I should clarify. I had an outdoor home thermometer I was watching closely that morning, and it briefly hit -1. KFRG had the low at 1, but I remember others nearby on here reporting subzero. I do see that Feb 2016 had a zero day too per KFRG, but that's the closest I see that they got since 2014. I know I'm mixing apples and oranges here. Also, I'm getting my history via the Almanac section of weather underground for KFRG, clicking through month by month. So this is messy for sure. To your point, elsewhere on the island in the past 12 years I'm sure you're right that other stations have gone below zero.

On this date 12 years ago, some places on LI went subzero. Was that the last time in these parts (excluding Westhampton Beach)?

Since we're down to just the piles here, I was able to take them down this morning, but frozen while doing so. Relatedly, for me, a foot of snow total, plus cold, in the lead up to and during the holidays, as we had this year, beats all the snow we can muster from March 1st on. When I run for president it will be on a platform of lots of snow and cold, but only during meteorological winter.

Another morning, another light coating - very light this time - underway here. Looking at the radar, further east of me in Central Suffolk looks to be under better echoes than I am, but not seeing ISP reporting anything.

February 1996 the last week of the month hovered in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the better part of a week, averaging 56.5 degree highs. 6 weeks later we had a 4-12 inch snowstorm. There's too much variability around here to take much to the bank more than two weeks out, ever.

Same. Did better this morning than yesterday. Edit: On further review, did better yesterday. I'll call it 1/4" tops here. Still whitened everything up a bit tho. Calm enough out this morning too. Another beautiful morning.

Yeah. Maybe what fell at first for me was melting before the temperature dropped. Per KFRG's hourly temps, and from what I've gathered here about the timing, looks like the temps were just above freezing for hours before the event, was about 35 at the outset and 28 by the time it ended.

Dad is that you?

What an embarrassment of riches the 2000-2018 period was. If this storm happened anytime in the 80s or 90s it would be referred to knowingly as the Blizzard of '18 like we talk about the Blizzard of '83 or '96. But because of when it happened it was just another ho hum foot+ storm lost in the mix.

Main story by me is that everything - the street, sidewalks, etc - are a slick sheet of ice. It's a crusty 1/4-1/2" of frozen combo. I was woken up by some gusts of wind while it was still dark out but fell back asleep. Now I know what it was. Caps off a start to meteorological winter that I would have gladly signed up for if you asked me in October. Happy New Year! All the best for a happy and a healthy 2026.

I remember tracking the rain/snow line on the old Accuweather radar. This storm was probably the best example I've ever seen of the saying "you have to smell the rain to get the best snows."

There have been a few years in the past 25 or so where the models consistently called for a warmup or cool down two weeks out, just on the horizon, but it would not materialize, and in response the models would seemingly just keep pushing said warmup or cool down out yet another few weeks, perpetually out there on a two week horizon. Eventually folks on here would start to say "it just seems to want to be warm [or cold] this winter" The models would never quite catch on though, continually promising a change was just around the corner. I wonder if this is shaping up to be one of those years.

Had this originally in the other thread but moved here. Regarding the intense rates and low visibility of the 12/30/2000 storm, here's a pic I took with a good ol' SLR (non digital) camera. For reference, the car on the right is at most 75-80 feet away. Still doesn't do it justice.

As I have said on here a few times, there have been bigger storms, colder storms, storms of longer duration, and storms with larger final totals for sure. But I have never, ever, ever, seen anything approaching the rate of snow or lack of visibility that I witnessed during about 90 minutes at the peak of this storm. Nothing before or after was even close. Also, just incredible to think that this storm was now one quarter of a century ago. Geez.

How do the snowfall averages for 1990-2019 stack up against the previous known 30 year periods? I have a point, but I want to make sure I'm right on the data first.

Granted I'm on Long Island, but I can probably count on one hand the number of years in the last 45 that we had significant snowcover last until the next big storm. New snow on top of old snow has always been quite rare. 93/94 of course is one such year, but even 95/96 notably was not. In the 80s we had a few years where the snow from a moderate clipper lasted a few weeks in a very cold month, but again the Blizzard of '83 year was practically snowless right up to that storm, and was mild almost immediately after it. Not saying the trend hasn't been toward more frequent mild spells, but it was almost never anything close to wall-to-wall winter around here.

Naive question, I'm sure, but why is it that if there are common trending scenarios that virtually every pro on here seems to correctly recognize days out, how are those not better captured in the models by now? It feels like there's been similar discussion on certain types of storms for decades.

I got four just based on sticking the ruler in the snow this morning after the fact, probably closer to 5 if I'd done it properly throughout the storm. I believe the 7 in Babylon 20 minutes east of here. The NW to SE gradient shown in virtually all the forecast maps verified, at least in my neck of the woods.

That is perfectly stated. You'd go to bed hearing the magical "3 to 6" being mentioned, sure you were looking at a snow day, only to throw open the curtains Night Before Christmas style, quickly assess the situation, and realize you were still looking at grass. There's your baseball on the lawn, clear as day. You could almost hear the sad trombone.

My layman's take - In setups like this it's almost like trying to not only predict severe thunderstorms in July, but predict which towns are going to cash in. That was clear to me by the unusually frequent reference to banding in much of the forecasting. Compare to being under a "widespread thunderstorms" prediction. Some people get crushed, others get next to nothing. The difference is that in July most people - not us, but normal people - are just happy to have missed out, and they go about their day, rather than getting on the computer and writing blogs about it. This is a tough, imprecise business - I give the mets a lot of credit.

Looking at the snowfall reports on the Upton site, I'm really surprised to see just 4 reports for Nassau. I've often seen much more reports for far smaller storms. Just doing the ruler in the snow thing ths morning I ended up with 4 here. We did pretty well here from 10PM - 2AM. Given the initial burst and the compaction due to the sleet component which was there from like 8-10PM, if I was doing this with the board I'm likely more like 5. That was in the predicted range for my backyard. Looking at the Suffolk numbers, looks like a forecast that nearly verified or actually verified, just on the low end.