donsutherland1
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In the world we inhabit, some things are eminently predictable. The sun rises and sets. Dropped objects fall to the ground. The tide rises and falls. And, as @snowman19 reminded readers just this morning--at least those willing to listen--modeled snowstorms disappear into the abyss of winter 2022-2023. It has long been said that there is always change. But not for the finite time that marks the saddest winters ever known to those who suffer through them. There is something special and sinister about winters such as 1918-1919, 1972-1973, 2001-2002, 2019-2020, and perhaps 2022-2023. During those "ratter" winters, opportunities for snowstorms are missed. The snow does not fall. Nevertheless, some refuse to accept the reality of the circumstances in which they find themselves. They cling fast to hollow aphorisms about the snow being "delayed but not denied." They are seduced by the siren call of MJO charts with low long-range verification scores and often low correlation outcomes. They are smitten by dusty analogs of a colder, snowier world that once was. The snow drought persists day after day. Sleighs go unused. There is no romance to be found in such winters. The hourglass empties. The sun's warmth grows. Spring blossoms begin to unfurl their colors to herald the coming change in seasons. The ship of "Winter 2022-2023" has now crossed mid-February. Central Park's barren ground has seen just 0.4" of snow. Even as the forsaken ship flounders on the stormy seas of warmth, a voice cries out from its Twitter watchtower: "Big snow, severe cold on the horizon!" Its confidence is unmistakable. It seems possessed of the certainty that only exists in such matters as the rising and setting of the sun. It appears that this voice has never felt the sting of its own countless busted forecasts for cold and snow that lie in the ship's wake as far back as the eye can see. It is undeterred that the analogs on which its forecasts are based have long ago melted in the rising warmth of climate change rendering them useless. It proclaims for New York City, "5° below normal, 20" of snow, from March 1 to April 15!" That the horizon is perpetually shrouded by the mist of uncertainty is irrelevant. Its confidence is complete. Instead, what seems increasingly likely is that this stricken ship will sink beneath the battering waves of winter futility long before it ever reaches a cold and snowy destination. There are rare miracles. The 5" snowstorm on March 22, 1998 after 0.5" had fallen all winter until then offers one example. Hope has not yet succumbed to hopelessness. The story of Winter 2022-2023 is nearly finished. Its last pages will be written over the next two months. What will those pages say? How will the story end? Will the ship of winter be lost?
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Morning thoughts… Today will be variably cloudy and much milder. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 51° Newark: 54° Philadelphia: 55° With the exception of Wednesday, readings will be generally above normal through Friday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 43.0° Newark: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.2°; 15-Year: 45.0°
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New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 18th:
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It can happen, but it’s not common.
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It’s encouraging that model support exists. Hopefully, this potential opportunity will be realized.
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More and more blossoms are coming into bloom at the New York Botanical Garden. Inside the annual Orchid show is underway.
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After a brisk sun-filled day, readings will rebound tomorrow. Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the much of the remainder of February. Nevertheless, a brief cool shot could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 23-25 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. At this timeframe, a snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February. Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings returned to much above normal levels. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +4.56 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.773 today. On February 16 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.001 (RMM). The February 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.930 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.3° (5.4° above normal).
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It’s much less of a factor, as long as it’s not strongly negative (-1 or below).
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It likely is an important part of that story.
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It may have something to do with the ongoing marine heatwave in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
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How New York City's winters with the least snowfall through January 31st progressed through February:
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No. It's only through February 17th. In the final rankings, excluding this winter, 2001-2002 ranked 1st and 1931-1932 ranked 2nd.
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The CFSv2 is warm throughout 4 weeks. I am not sold on the CFSv2 idea, but could see a briefly cooler start to March (not severely cold) with a rebound in temperatures during the second week of the month. That's the scenario that is beginning to show up on the extended range of the EPS. It's also the scenario that played out in late February-early March 2002. Below are the CFSv2 maps:
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February 19-28, 2002 had a mean temperature of 44.2° (the forecast figures for 2023 range between 43.0°-43.5°). The break the 2001-2002 record, the average would need to be 45.0°.
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Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly sunny and cooler. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 40s in most areas. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 43° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 45° Milder air will return tomorrow and a generally mild week lies ahead next week. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.8°; 15-Year: 42.8° Newark: 30-Year: 43.6°; 15-Year: 43.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.9°; 15-Year: 44.7°
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New York City's snow season futility rankings through February 17th:
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If blocking develops, there would be a colder outcome. Right now, beyond the opening of March, there is a lot of uncertainty even as the CFSv2 remains stubbornly warm.
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Day 10-14 EPS forecast.
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He used to be a good forecaster. Even the best ones can make big errors from time to time. He has changed dramatically since around 2010. I focused on the two big flaws that now appear apparent in his forecasting framework. I personally hope his better days from the past won’t be forgotten.
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Colder air is now pressing into the region. Tomorrow will be blustery and noticeably colder than today. Readings will generally reach the lower 40s. Temperatures will run generally above to much above normal through the third week of February. Afterward, temperatures could cool during the closing 7 days of the month. That could afford an opportunity for a snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic region during the February 23-25 timeframe. More than likely, any snowfall would be modest. At this timeframe, a snowfall is not a guaranteed outcome. No severe shots of cold appear likely through February. Among the extended range scenarios on the table is a late February-early March 2002-type outcome. Under such a scenario, cold air would flood into the Plains States, but persistent southeast ridging would keep most of the cold away from the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic United States. During February 28-March 5, 2002 high temperatures in the New York City area generally reached the lower to middle 40s with low temperatures in the 20s at night. At the height of the cold, one night saw the temperature fall into the upper teens. By March 7, the cold was gone and readings return to much above normal levels. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around February 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.62°C. La Niña conditions fading and they should evolve to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring. The SOI was +9.27 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.767 today. On February 15 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.934 (RMM). The February 14-adjusted amplitude was 2.337 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.9° (5.0° above normal).
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The extreme forecast appears to be a last-ditch swing for the fences in what has been a disastrous winter forecast in among the warmest winters on record. Such tweets undermine the credibility of profession, because of the visibility and attention they garner. With respect to the -5° anomaly/20"+ snowfall idea, I posted previously on that matter for NYC. Overall, the probability of such an outcome remains exceptionally low. There is no support on the most recent ECMWF weeklies or CFSv2 for the kind of sustained cold required. The verification tweet for mid-November through December is not exactly accurate. He referred to "big end-game, cold." Yet, the area of 1° or more below normal anomalies for this period was quite small. Had there not been the short-lived severe Arctic blast in late December, that area would have been even smaller. Nevertheless, the anomalies fall far short of what was described. With regard to his "wishcast" tweet, there is a material omission. He had expected severe cold for the January 10-30 period. The January 10-30, 2023 outcome could not have been more different from his idea: Boston: Mean Temperature: 37.5° (8th warmest); Snowfall: 6.4" New York City: Mean Temperature: 42.0° (3rd warmest); Snowfall: Trace Philadelphia: Mean Temperature: 41.6° (7th warmest); Snowfall: None Washington, DC: Mean Temperature: 43.1° (tied 12th warmest); Snowfall: Trace All four cities wound up with among their warmest Januaries on record. Boston (5th warmest), New York City (1st warmest), Philadelphia (2nd warmest), and Washington, DC (3rd warmest). Why have things gone so badly? Two possible issues may be involved: 1) His "analog" method 2) His approach to using the guidance Analogs can provide useful insight when three conditions exist: they are selected in an objective fashion (different people should be able to reproduce them from a consistent methodology), their limitations (lack of synoptic scale value, sample size, uncertainty) are respected, and reasonable comparability exists (relatively stable climate) across the period of time. Today, the climate is warming and it is notably warmer than it was even a few decades ago. The dynamic warming and extent of warming that has occurred have undermined analog comparability and reduced valid analog pools to very small sample sizes. His approach to using models and ensembles is flawed. He has often suggested that he arrives at conclusions and then chooses the guidance that favors those conclusions. Two or three decades ago when the guidance had much less skill, the hazards of that approach would have been less evident. The noise of model error would have drowned out the error from a flawed approach to using the models. Today, the hazards of that flawed approach are inescapable. In general, one should look at the evidence, including the guidance, and only then reach conclusions. One should not reach preconceived conclusions and then essentially filter evidence simply because it confirms one's ideas. Confirmation bias is lethal to good analyses and decision-making. It also undermines the possibility of utilizing lessons from post-verification assessments. Overall, long-range forecasting remains a low-skill endeavor. However, an inherently flawed approach to forecasting can greatly increase the frequency and magnitude of one's errors. I suspect that's the bigger story here.
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Some sleet pellets are mixing in with the light rain in Larchmont, NY.
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Once the PNA gets to -1.000 or below, the percentage of moderate or greater snowstorms (4" or more) falls. No storms after February 16 with a PNA of -1.000 or below saw 8" or more of snow. But there are a number of 4"-7" storms. In this pathetic winter, that would be a great storm.
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Yes. The last week of the month will be key.
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The final winter average for 2001-02 was 41.6. We may fall short.
