December is starting to come into view on long range NWP guidance & the latest JMA, CFSv2, & ECMWF weeklies all agree on a strong +NAO/+AO/-PNA becoming established within the next 3-4 weeks. Western-SW US troughing + eastern US-SE Canada ridge pattern (a -TNH) showing up in December is one of the classic hallmarks of a strong, east-based El Niño.