H2Otown_WX

What an absolute toaster bath here

Any other model you would like to inflict pain on?

Might need to move to Neptune at this point

Haha yeah I was looking at 00z although it was the Euro that looked more interesting from a precip chance perspective. I was noting mostly that the GFS was also not all that warm temperature wise between Christmas and New Years. It looks like as bad as the 06z is it also doesn't have a huge warmup.

Pretty intriguing run of the Euro last night with multiple light to moderate threats running into the defacto block Will alluded to yesterday...very active pattern. Both the GFS and Euro have really backed off the huge torch between Christmas and New Years they were showing a few days back.

Oh ok Will...wonder if the EPS agrees? Also, the GFS is showing the first part of the long duration event beginning at D6-7 before the ridge gets into the NAO domain. I'm thinking the airmass under the block won't be very good but I'm sure Pike north could still get a decent event if something like the GFS would come to fruition.

I mean, I'm no expert but that evolution on the GFS is something that just doesn't happen...especially without a -NAO. I'd heavily favor the non-event the Euro shows at this juncture.

Dick Tolleris honking means it ain't happening. Or watch it be congrats DC.

Most of us are solidly on the board. It could have been an at or above normal snowfall month for a larger area, we just didn't know. No one did. Could be a snowy month for January, could be a rainy month. We'll just wait and see.

Imagine being an Atlanta or even Birmingham weenie and you're too far north?

Definitely getting the deja vu feeling...wonder if there's some kind of lag from the super Nino last year? We had lag during a moderate or strong Nina in 2010-11. Sadly that's the last time we really had a -NAO I think.

What's the implication of the ridge becoming flatter though?

Don't you mean the 70s and 80s?

Models of the sky keep on turninggg

Yeah what's up with that? I thought I was the only one who noticed that for a given 850 temp we seem to get warmer than we did 20 years ago. I was wondering if it has to do with ozone layer depletion?

Definitely a signal around the 20th-21st on the GEFS:

Ok...

Rule of thumb is to always take the under when you're looking to mix down winds on WAA

He was initially talking about how they need cold anomalies to snow down there but they're getting harder and harder to come by because of how expansive the warmer than normal anomalies have been: psuhoffman Posted 6 hours ago If you pull back and stop focusing on our locations specific snow chances the biggest issue I see is this… We need cold anomalies to snow. Our coldest day of the year has an avg high near 40. But if you simply look at a 5 or 10 day mean temp anomaly for the whole northern hemisphere the warm expanse outnumbers cold by 2 and sometimes 3-1 across the mid latitudes. We got lucky recently that one of the small (globally speaking) pockets of cold did end up over us for a week, but how often are we going to win if we need cold and 2/3 of the whole hemisphere is warm at any given time? Again, maybe this applies more to them than to us?

From the Mid Atlantic December thread: psuhoffman Posted 5 hours ago It’s also worth pointing out that some have transitioned to rooting for EPO driven cold patterns because lately our more classical ways to snow have failed due to not being cold enough. But this last week was an example of the issue with that. EPO driven patterns are often dry when it’s cold. 2014 and 2015 were anomalies not normal. Looking at the 18z GFS it seems he is correct. Granted maybe it doesn't apply as much up here because of Miller Bs but those usually screw my area without blocking.

Yeah, you're probably right. The EPS looks more like the GFS OP. Definitely higher heights than its own OP run. Do you think it's close the shades til after New Year's? That would line up with your outlook.

GFS and Euro are vastly different beyond 12/15. They both have a chilly few days after next Wednesday's torch but the Euro insists on a -EPO with modest ridging in AK to help keep the cold air source close enough to prevent an all out torch. The GFS otoh has the dreaded GoA low and a strong SE ridge. It'll be interesting to see which one is closer to verifying.

I want to be added as a water bottle

Nice, I was just at the Wendy's on Queen St on my way home from BDL. It was snowing pretty good but it wasn't sticking to the pavement. I think my car said 34F. It probably was 33 as my old car doesn't register odd numbers usually lol.

That's pretty weird that it took almost a whole extra hour for you to flip to snow there. I'm working at BDL and we flipped around 8:55.