H2Otown_WX

From the Mid Atlantic December thread: psuhoffman Posted 5 hours ago It’s also worth pointing out that some have transitioned to rooting for EPO driven cold patterns because lately our more classical ways to snow have failed due to not being cold enough. But this last week was an example of the issue with that. EPO driven patterns are often dry when it’s cold. 2014 and 2015 were anomalies not normal. Looking at the 18z GFS it seems he is correct. Granted maybe it doesn't apply as much up here because of Miller Bs but those usually screw my area without blocking.

Yeah, you're probably right. The EPS looks more like the GFS OP. Definitely higher heights than its own OP run. Do you think it's close the shades til after New Year's? That would line up with your outlook.

GFS and Euro are vastly different beyond 12/15. They both have a chilly few days after next Wednesday's torch but the Euro insists on a -EPO with modest ridging in AK to help keep the cold air source close enough to prevent an all out torch. The GFS otoh has the dreaded GoA low and a strong SE ridge. It'll be interesting to see which one is closer to verifying.

I want to be added as a water bottle

Nice, I was just at the Wendy's on Queen St on my way home from BDL. It was snowing pretty good but it wasn't sticking to the pavement. I think my car said 34F. It probably was 33 as my old car doesn't register odd numbers usually lol.

That's pretty weird that it took almost a whole extra hour for you to flip to snow there. I'm working at BDL and we flipped around 8:55.

Good call, we just flipped to all snow at BDL. Still 37F though

How are we going to cool though other than wet-bulbing? We're ripping a south wind.

I'm sensing a bust in the lower terrain at least. It's still 41/26 at BDL and the 23z HRRR said it would be down to 36 at 00z.

Oh ok, well initially we were only talking about appreciable snowfall prior to Christmas in CT outside of the NW Hills I guess. Whether or not that stayed on the ground until Christmas is different but either way we get a White Christmas at least some of the time. Certainly not as often as Worcester or NNE obviously.

I'm just saying when you have a pattern that's a couple weeks colder than climo it's nice to cash in and we often did in the 2000s. Just had a rough stretch of Decembers in recent years which I'm starting to wonder if it has something to do with CC but you would probably have a better grasp on that since you have been following winter twice as long.

It's roughly 1/3 for a White Christmas in the Hartford area. I wouldn't call that anywhere close to "99 out of 100" but whatever

99 times out of 100...yeah I don't think so man. I've lived here for 31 out of 33 years so no, I'm not new. I started following weather in 2000-01 and since then we've had appreciable snow prior to Christmas at least 7 or 8 times. Granted most of those were in the 2000s ('02, '03, '05, '07, '08 and '09) but yeah, you're exaggerating big time. It hasn't happened much recently.

00z GFS is brutal...almost entirely well above normal temps start at D5 with the exception of D11.

You do realize who you're talking to/which thread this is, right?

That's my all-time melt and the end of my potential forecasting career lol...how much did you get? 28"?

OT but every time I look at your avatar I throw up in my mouth a little. That's Jan 2015 right?

I stand corrected, SPECI a few minutes ago had them down to 1 SM with -SN

It's 39/19 there though so, probably a fail

Oh ok, I don't know my geography up that way too well...does Sturbridge lack the elevation of Holland/Union? I know Union has high elevations that usually cash in.

Is that a 6" magenta shading dot over Sturbridge?

Yeah, and then he can say CT snow doesn't matter because we're all a bunch of rednecks.

Reverse psychology? I think you need to change your username back to Metfan or whatever. The MJO one is bad juju.

Good point about climo...what part of CT are you in? I guess when we have a pattern much more favorable than climo temp wise anyway you hope you can cash in with like a 6-10" type deal regardless of the calendar.

Seems like our heralded great pattern is only going to yield and inch or two of snow. Guidance completely lost the threat on the 8th. I suppose there's an outside chance it will come back but the pattern may be breaking down at that point. We've also trended warmer for the 11th which was looking like a potential icing event yesterday. Boo. EDIT: Didn't realize the GFS is still advertising a wintry outcome for the 10th/11th. Still way out there...