H2Otown_WX

I would say the 18z run does look similar to that storm but that changed BOS to rain

Not that it matters but don't you think the 700 mb track on the 18z is much less favorable than 12z? Looks like there would be dryslot issues for CT anyway.

How do you use December '92 for every analog?

Yep, you were right. Two runs in a row now...I would like to see it on some other guidance too. I know the EPS improved so hopefully that continues tonight. Can't say I feel too great about being close to the jackpot zone at 7 days out but at least there seems like a good chance of something.

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but all the GFS has done is tease us with ridiculous BECS solutions over the last 3 weeks only to pull the rug out the next run. Theres nothing about this setup that looks less precarious with a positively tilted trough axis and confluence pressing down. Then we are relying on the southern s/w to eject at the right time. Too many moving parts imo.

Plenty of time for it to get worse, too. The MO of the last like 7 winters is to find the worst possible solution. Basically the opposite of the previous 15 winters or so where things would trend better and it found every excuse to snow with the exception of the years that were well below normal like 06-07 and 11-12.

Congrats Virginia Beach

Yeah, this is immensely disappointing. Just when you thought we shook Stein he comes back to begin peak climo after a 6 week hiatus.

This blows...-NAO screwing us out of snow Monday and a torch after the 10th. EDIT: Nvm. Stupid -EPO is giving us useless cold.

Fixed

Idk, can we trust the GFS? There was a time we would just throw it in the trash but it is much improved. Mid Atlantic weenies hanging their hats on the Canadian lol...definitely would like to see the Euro make a big move in 90 minutes.

I'll have to hand it to you and DIT if it does

Honestly I thought we'd be like 2-4" for southern CT looking at 500 mb. I guess the confluence is still too much, hell of a SW-NE gradient.

Horrid

I've noted the temperature sensor runs too warm but apparently the techs don't care lol

Something weird happened at BDL over the weekend where the dew point got stuck. It was running like 10 degrees cooler than surrounding stations. From what my supervisor said it sounded like it just corrected itself. Have you or your techs ever seen that happen?

Least we can look forward to Cincy and Indy obliterating our seasonal totals by Monday. Let the good times roll.

For the 11th?

Alright let's do it, is the 11th a different threat from what was the 8th and 9th or did the timing just change?

Why should I go to the cry baby thread? Nothing I said is untrue. And no, I didn't grow up in the 80s. We were getting nice solutions for the 5th-6th and 8th-9th on the models a few days ago and now they backed off...it's not like they only backed off for one cycle. The threat on the 6th is looking pretty close to dead even though it's still almost a week out and the main players giving a suppressed look for the follow up wave aren't going anywhere so I'm not sure why you expect the outcome to become more favorable as we get closer.

Well Idk man, go back to like 4 days ago and we were discussing two threats, one on the 5th and one around the 9th. Now we have pushed that to the 11th. I'm not saying the pattern won't produce but it seems like we may be waiting until the third week of the month. Which sucks because it seems like every winter the first 6 weeks of climo winter are just pissed away. Yeah yeah yeah, we lucked out with a couple of little over performing events but you know what I mean. The general tenor of the last like 10 years is to just waste 12/1-1/15 or so.

Feb 2010 still hurts. We were so close to something beyond even Jan 2011. Especially for the "Snowicane" being in Danbury for that I could smell the rain/snow line.

Meh, we'll probably wait til the period highlighted in @40/70 Benchmark Winter Outlook