OHweather

Pretty decent setup for lake effect rain and maybe some waterspouts fairly close to shore starting tonight. It's getting closer to being that time of year again after a very rainy but otherwise fairly benign summer.

It seems like we've had just enough rain to keep things from really drying out, however I feel like the thunderstorms over the next few days will make or break us. Locations not impacted by the lake breeze stand to have a good shot at 85+ degree weather Friday-Sunday and possibly Monday too depending on the timing of any storms each day. Although there is a "chance" of storms Friday-Monday, the chances Friday-Sunday aren't particularly high at any one spot as there isn't really any forcing, so storms will be isolated to at best widely scattered each day. A few winners, a lot of losers. We'll see how Monday plays out...the current frontal timing of late Monday night isn't the best for a lot of storms, and the forcing with the front will probably be weakening as the upper low responsible for all of this opens up and moves NE. I think it's possible more than half the area is shut out of good rain out of this whole deal, which would probably get us to the point where we'd be included in the "abnormally dry" category on the national drought monitor.

I would say I hope the snow holds off till that Thursday so I'm home when it hits but at a certain point I have to give up the hope of coming home to a snowstorm...it'll only be my summer break by that point

Looks like all of the snow went into the west side, a lot of 2-4" reports out there. Probably because that's where all the open water is. And NW PA did ok looks like. We did get a heavy dusting in Athens even

CLE and LPR down to 1/2 mile visibility right now with solid coatings on traffic cams where the snow showers have been most persistent. Too bad this didn't happen overnight or else you'd all probably fluff out a half decent little accumulation.

The RAP is showing a pretty good layer of steep lapse rates and high RH through the DGZ and up to about 6-7k feet late this afternoon and this evening for a few hours as the trough evident just north of Detroit right now drops south across the lake. Lake induced CAPE gets to a little over 300 J/KG with equilibrium levels of 7-8k feet late this afternoon into this evening as well in this timeframe. There is a half decent band off of an icy Lake Huron with 850mb temps close to what should be over Lake Erie by this evening. I think the synoptic support and enough juice for some lake enhancement should be enough to get a half decent burst of snow showers after about 3PM through early evening, with light lake effect continuing into the overnight. Winds aren't particularly well aligned until after the trough passage but a little Lake Huron connection with a NNW to due N wind wouldn't shock me this evening. We'll see how well things accumulate but with a potential burst of snow as the sun angle starts getting lower towards the PM commute with some snow showers continuing into the night I could see 1-3" as far west as Erie/Huron Counties...less along the immediate shoreline (maybe half an inch to an inch at most). If you can get a little bit of snow down ratios this evening should be pretty decent with instability through the DGZ and cold surface temps. We'll see what transpires. As a note 850mb temps look colder than expected by a few degrees.

Yeah it's tough to tell, definitely some fog up there too. Great day!

Big flakes on the Chardon cam but I'm not seeing much on any traffic cams in Cuyahoga County

The NAM/SREF try to dynamically cool you guys enough for snow with heavy precip tomorrow morning and drop some accums close to the lake. GFS and Euro are a little warmer but aren't far from a similar solution. Tough forecast. The only reason this is interesting is you guys could get some heavy precip rates during the morning tomorrow so a change to snow could result in a quick accumulation...or it could just as easily be 35 and rain.

Added about 4.8" here from the storm over the weekend here in Reminderville, and measured a 16-17" snow pack in various undrifted spots last night. The top 6" was still rather fluffy while the bottom 10" was very dense. No way we loose much of that with the brief warm up coming. There was noticeably more snow pack in Chagrin yesterday afternoon too. Looks like a mix to rain scenario tomorrow. It's possible there's a little lake effect Wednesday night into Thursday if some open water can appear on the lake with a light WNW flow and decently cold 850mb temps. But other than that looks like my week here will be relatively boring weather-wise.

6z GFS would be near disaster. I didn't look closely but it brings thunderstorms in with the mid-week system. Best case at this point is the storm is on the weaker side and we only see 40's and stratiform rain. 50's or warmer with storms would be bad ala the end of February 2011. The gulf will be wide open ahead of this storm so it's possible if the storm winds up at all.

I even got more than what CLE measured all the way down here and it snowed very lightly for all of two hours Looking forward to getting home later today and seeing the glacier before it melts later next week...after one more moderate snow on Sunday.

Between Thursday and Friday nights, I think at least one can over perform and get to -10 at CLE and make up for today's warmer high. We shall see.

Yeah I'd have to imagine it's frozen solid. Ironically if you look at radar through the middle of the night there was still some enhancement from the lake...not a ton but a little. Amazing how that can still happen with the ice although there is a small amount of moisture picked up through sublimation I believe.

The new climate report says CLE got 2.7" of snow on 0.38" of liquid. With a high of 26 and a low of 12 (morning low of 13). Tell me guys, since I wasn't there, did the snow from Saturday have the density of freshly poured concrete? :lmao: Apparently, when it snows 2" in two hours, with two other hours with moderate snow, and several other hours of light snow, and air temps welll below freezing, it all adds up to 2.7". What a gosh darn joke.

After the 26/13 max/min for Saturday, the average monthly temp at CLE for February is 15.5...second coldest ever, behind 15.2 in 1875. If temp forecasts pan out this week it's possible for the monthly mean to drop to roughly 14.0...we shall see.

CLE hit -17 this morning, which appears to do a number of things: -New daily record -New February monthly record -Coldest since January 1994 -Tied for 4th coldest ever in Cleveland

If the lake effect clouds can diminish quickly enough, I think a few degrees colder is a good bet.

That seems to be the going theory. Reading the New England threads during windy storms, BOS appears to have the same issue.

I want to go for the coldest February record, we don't have these chances often. That record has stood since 1875! After that, we can get a "warmer" (say 25-30 degree) big dog the first week of March when I'm in town. Then we can torch the last three weeks of March and charge the lake for the inevitable April LES snowstorm (with how cold the last two Springs have been I'm surprised we haven't pulled off something in April either year of note, although there were half decent late March LES events the last two years)

On a more serious note, through Tuesday the average temp at CLE for February was 17.2, which if it held would be the 5th coldest February on record. The coldest on record is 15.2 in 1875. Here are the forecast mins/maxes at CLE for the next week from the weather service. Hourly weather graphs were used at times when a min was occurring at midnight on a given day: Wednesday: Low 1F, high 13F (7) Thursday: Low -6F, high 4F (-1) Friday: Low -10F, high 11F (0.5) Saturday: Low 10F, high 30F (20) Sunday: Low 7F, high 26F (16.5) Monday: Low 3F, high 17F (10) Tuesday: Low 3F, high 21F (12) The only day that appears likely to be warmer than the current daily average for February is Saturday. It is possible that we get a few degrees warmer on Saturday, but I also believe the mins early next week could also get a little colder, so it all comes out in the wash. Either way, when added in, the next week's forecast takes the February average down to 14.5 through Tuesday the 24th! Thereafter, a quick look at the GFS and Euro (yes, it may change), shows that it may be hard for the average to come up much after that. We've got a shot I think! *One potential fly in the ointment is the snow completely melting by early next week, which is probably very unlikely. That would make those mins at least harder to verify.

I'd say bring the low up to Detroit, drench you guys with rain and southerly winds, and move some ice around

I'll have to look later, but I wonder if this has a chance at being the coldest February ever in Cleveland. More very impressive cold coming and no above average temps in site.

It's possible you guys break two more records later this week, and it's also possible rural areas get colder than -20 again Friday morning. Incredible

Thanks guys...snow hasn't been accumulating too quickly yet, but it's been 5-10 degrees here for the duration of the storm (which no one here can remember a storm so cold in SE Ohio) and the roads are a mess. That is incredible that ERI tied an all time record! May have a similar chance Thursday night depending on where the heart of the surface high tracks..airmass looks similar if you can stay clear/calm. We'll have a snow pack here and could also really tank