OHweather

When your temps are that cold a temp/dew point spread of 2C like that isn't bad. But we'll see if the models keep showing something close to that or not...that was a pretty good look to say the least.

Just for laughs, here's a sounding from the 12z GFS for Tuesday night behind the clipper. Just a little bit of instability (500mb temps near -41.5C)

Looking like a couple opportunities for snow over the next several days...the first will be Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, with wrap around transitioning to lake effect with a WNW wind Sunday night, before winds go more SW on Monday. Currently not a great looking setup, but the wrap around could yield an inch or so for a lot of areas Sunday afternoon and it wouldn't take too much to get a few inches in the primary Snowbelt Sunday night with a well aligned WNW wind. The next shot looks to come Tuesday with a clipper with lake effect on a WNW or NW wind Tuesday night into Wednesday. This potential event will have more instability, but with arctic air masses you always have to wonder about too much dry air. If winds stay WNW most of the event and give you guys a long fetch it could be a pretty good event, but if winds are more NW it could be too dry. I'd say 80% chance CLE gets their first inch by Wednesday

It's incredible that we've gotten so little LES but ice is going to start forming next week. I'm hoping we can get some activity into Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties, even if it's only a few inches. The one good side is we have a good 3.5 months of snow potential to go because we're almost half way through winter and it's been incredibly bad so far.

Yeah, it's possible there's a wind with a northerly component for a time Sunday/Sunday night behind the first low that develops along the arctic front and possible behind the clipper around mid-week if that verifies. Although I think the heaviest snow will still go into SW NY, but that doesn't mean a total shutout for NE OH. We'll see if CLE can get anything of note and end the "snowless" streak.

The GFS and Euro have a ton of cold starting next week but very little wind coming from north of due west. That would start freezing the lake while NE OH gets very little snow. I doubt we break futility records but two more months of bad luck and it'd be possible. Edit: Any records *other than our current ridiculous 1"-less stretch at CLE.

I honestly doubt anyone hit 4", pretty incredible bust. I agree that from a major synoptic storm perspective, I can't recall one good synoptic storm since the 10-11 winter that lived up to expectations in Cleveland. However, there have been many minor to moderate events in the 13-14 and 14-15 winters that over performed along with some busts. In fact I'd say the lake effect in November of 2014 and the many moderate snows last February all for the most part over performed or at least performed as expected...although the big storm never really came and the start to this winter has been terrible and can't be sugar coated. This last event was certainly a bust and I can't find any way to really defend my forecast or the NWS, a lot of areas were expected to get 2-4" or 3-6" and struggled to get 1". That's a bad forecast and a bust, period...but I'd say 13-14 and 14-15 while not record snow winters were both decent. Even late January and February of 2013 were "OK." We've just been missing that one good synoptic storm the last few winters.

After some quick looking it looks like dew points were a good few degrees lower than modeled up here, and temperatures both surface and aloft were a little warmer than expected too. That reduces moisture and instability some which likely made a difference. As for your area I see a couple streaks of snow in western OH on visible satellite, so it's possible the bands just missed you. It's also possible that something similar happened downwind of Lake MI which just caused stuff to crap out before it hit you.

Yeah, I really doubt CLE's 1"-less streak ends today at this point. It's bound to end soon with a cold pattern coming up and an unfrozen lake, but this event really didn't do well.

The band was really intense here but this event is certainly busting overall. I'll end up with close to an inch, with most of that falling in the last 20 minutes. I'm really scratching my head as with the really nice trough pushing through with good moisture and instability I figured there'd be much more snow outside of the band and didn't expect the band to look so disorganized as it swung west. I can remember plenty of NW or N flow events that had enough moisture and did really good and others like this that have done pretty badly, sometimes it feels like a guessing game with a short fetch. I'll have to look but maybe the low levels were drier than expected which led to the snow outside of the band not really materializing. The band also took several hours longer than expected to really get going overnight which kept totals down in the heart of the Snowbelt.

The HRRR has the Huron band setting up over Geauga County. Could be interesting. I hate tweaking my maps last second but I think I put the Huron band a bit too far east. Have a nice dusting here, the snow has the consistency of grains of sand but it's been snowing for a few hours and things are a little white. Will be much whiter later tonight and tomorrow

Thanks all. The lake effect snow warning polygons are interesting. That makes it more important to nail where in a county the heaviest snow will be, but if done right can really lower the false alarms for areas like say western Cuyahoga. http://www.weather.gov/buf/mm.html BUF still runs their local models, but for some reason they appear to be having some trouble right now, go figure. Starting to see a few flurries here. Maybe some areas will overperform, radar doesn't look too bad with some echoes over MI feeding the Lake Erie activity for a while.

Part 2: By 4AM Monday, the GFS, NAM and Euro (NAM pictured above) all agree on a lobe of deep moisture with the upper level trough moving over Lake Erie. They show mid-level RH values increasing by 1AM Monday and becoming very high for a few hours by 3AM. In addition to some moisture from the trough, a shot of vorticity advection will provide for some large scale ascent at the same time: In addition, even outside of the Lake Huron band, forecast soundings show a much improved thermodynamic environment late Sunday night, with equilibrium levels rising to near 10k feet, moisture and instability through the entire snow growth zone, and reasonably well-aligned NNW winds: With steep lapse rates through most of the snow growth zone, high equilibrium levels, along with moisture and lift from the upper level trough itself, I’d be utterly shocked if multi-banded lake effect didn’t start re-developing shortly after midnight Sunday night. With probably enough synoptic moisture and lift for some light snow without any lake influence, I’d have to think that by 3-4AM Monday that west of the Lake Huron band that the radar will fill in, with moderate snow in the higher terrain thanks to orographic lift from the terrain. With steep lapse rates and moisture through most of the snow growth zone, snow ratios should increase dramatically in this timeframe as well and could easily get into the 20:1 range at times. By 10AM Monday, the surface winds are going NE over Lake Huron and due north or east of due north over Lake Erie, which will likely push any Huron connection west pretty quickly between 4AM and 10AM Monday. With winds taking on a pretty strong easterly component over Lake Huron, the band will likely swing all the way through the Cleveland metro and into the far west side Monday morning. This band will likely be moving pretty quickly across the Cleveland metro as the wind shift is pretty dramatic, especially over Lake Huron, which will limit how much snow any one spot gets, however the band could be very impressive as it swings west. The band will swing across the Cleveland metro as lake effect conditions are maximized beneath the heart of the upper level trough. At 7AM Monday, lake to 850mb temp differentials of near 20C, lake to 700mb temp differentials of near 30C, and lake to 500mb temp differentials of near 40C will yield extreme instability, high equilibrium levels over 10k feet and maybe even the potential for thunder. In addition, moisture gets to near 10k feet and winds are fairly light, maximizing how much moisture can be picked up with the short fetch. Instability and very strong omega (the white line) through the dendrite growth zone suggest very high snow ratios and efficient snow rates. Although the Lake Huron band may not stay in any one spot for more than maybe an hour Monday morning as it swings west, it could certainly produce a very quick 1-2” of snow in many areas and have a disastrous impact on the Monday AM commute in Cleveland. By noon Monday the upper level trough starts moving off to the east, resulting in moisture depth and inversion heights really coming down. By late Monday afternoon, there is still a well aligned NNE flow with very steep lapse rates through the snow growth zone, so I suspect that weaker multi-bands will persist through Monday afternoon, favoring the higher terrain. There sometimes seems to be some convergence near I-71 in this setup which could result in a slightly more focused band across parts of Cuyahoga/Medina/western Summit for a time. With the mid-levels really drying and inversions coming down, along with still a fairly short fetch, I don’t anticipate major additional accumulations Monday afternoon, but some higher terrain locales could see another inch or so. The Lake Huron band may result in light to occasionally moderate snow continuing in the north-central Ohio lakeshore into Monday evening as well. So to sum up, I expect light LES to break out from Cuyahoga points east Sunday morning, with the LES expanding SW Sunday afternoon as the winds go NW. Amounts on Sunday will be light, up to an inch in Geauga but minimal elsewhere. Sunday evening I expect a temporary uptick in LES as some upstream lake moisture moves east to west across the Snowbelt and Cleveland metro. With a short fetch and still fairly marginal moisture/instability, this activity should favor the higher terrain and still be fairly light, with maybe an inch or so in some spots Sunday evening. I expect a Lake Huron band to begin taking shape in Ashtabula County Sunday evening and really become heavy overnight with only some minor fluctuations in band location from late Sunday evening through early Monday morning, possibly resulting in locally heavy amounts in Ashtabula County. West of the Huron connection, I expect a decrease in snow briefly around midnight, with snow ramping back up quickly after midnight. By 3-4AM I expect fairly numerous snow showers west of the Huron band with locally moderate snow in the higher terrain. This only lasts a few hours as the Huron band shifts west with a brief period of heavy snow and quick accums of an inch or two. The snows after midnight Sunday night and before the Huron band could produce 1-2” in the higher terrain in the secondary and primary Snowbelt, with minimal amounts closer to the lakeshore. Behind the Huron band there will be a couple hour window before the better synoptic moisture and lift pull out where light to moderate snows focused on the higher terrain could continue and maybe produce another inch by noon Monday, before moisture and inversions start lowering Monday afternoon limiting activity to fairly weak multi-bands, with a possible exception of a slightly better band over the secondary Snowbelt for a time. Additional accums Monday afternoon will most likely be less than an inch. For amounts, could see over 6” in Ashtabula County where the Huron band is most persistent Sunday night. Could also see up to 6” in the higher terrain in Geauga and eastern Cuyahoga where they’ll be favored for much of the event where elevation will be key. Could also see up to 4” in the higher terrain of the secondary Snowbelt for the same reason. Elsewhere amounts will drop off quickly towards the lakeshore, with the majority of the snow along the shore and in the city of Cleveland occurring in a brief window Monday morning while the Huron band swings west. With the Huron band moving well west there will be some light accums pretty far west for a LES event.

Took me a while to get around to this. Will be nice to see some lake effect snow here. A pocket of arctic air beneath a deep upper level trough moving over the Great Lakes will set off lake effect snow Sunday through Monday downwind of Lake Erie. Upstream lake connections and synoptic moisture/lift will be key to where the heavier snow sets up and how much snow falls in this short fetch lake effect event. A shortwave glancing Lake Erie to the north will push a surface trough south across the lake Sunday morning, with 850mb temperatures cooling to -10C by Sunday afternoon. With water temps in the central and eastern basin still around 42F/6C, this creates a lake to 850mb temp differential of 16C which is enough to get a lake response. Because the shortwave only glances to us as it moves by to the north on Sunday, the cold airmass is fairly shallow, with inversion heights and moisture depth only to 5-6k feet through the day Sunday, and only touching the lower portions of the snow growth zone. Convergence along the shoreline that models show to be slow moving during the day will help focus snow, but other parameters suggest any lake effect Sunday morning into the afternoon will be pretty light with poor snow ratios. By late Sunday afternoon what’s left of the shortwave finally pushes across Lake Erie into northern Ohio, perhaps helping to bring inversions up some due to some weak large scale lift with the shortwave. This may result in somewhat of an uptick in lake effect Sunday afternoon. Forecast soundings from this timeframe suggest that lake effect parameters still won’t be great, with inversion heights and moisture only getting to around 5k feet. With steep lapse rates below the inversion it’s possible there are some briefly moderate snow showers, but well aligned NW winds suggest that convergence should push south of the lakeshore by mid to late Sunday afternoon. All in all, the ingredients won’t be there for much lake effect during the day Sunday. There will certainly be snow showers, initially from eastern Cuyahoga points east in the morning as the surface trough starts slowly pushing inland, and then in both the primary and secondary Snowbelts in the afternoon in the NW flow, but amounts will be light and ratios won’t be great. It’s possible the higher terrain in Geauga gets an inch or so through the day Sunday, but I think that would be the most anyone sees. Other areas could see minimal accums as the NW flow tends to spread the snow showers west and south of Cleveland too. As we head through Sunday evening the winds slowly go more NNW and slightly colder air moves in, allowing inversion heights to come up a bit and allowing moisture depth to also increase a little bit. The winds for a few hours Sunday evening support moisture from central Lake Superior and northern Lake Michigan getting to Lake Erie which could help pre-seed things. Forecast soundings by later Sunday evening have improved some from Sunday afternoon, with equilibrium levels getting pushed up to near 7k feet and the instability starting to build into the snow growth zone. This would allow for somewhat more intense snow showers and ratios probably climbing above 10:1 Sunday evening. Although the fetch is short, the winds below the inversion are fairly light and well-aligned, which may maximize how much moisture is picked up with the short fetch. A period of some pre-seeding from the Great Lakes in the evening could result in a burst of snow showers in the higher terrain of the primary and secondary Snowbelts that produces an inch or so of accumulation. Probably much less closer to the lakeshore. As the winds slowly veer more northerly Sunday night and Lake Superior/Michigan connection would likely shift west of Cleveland, and the attention would turn to an expected Lake Huron connection moving in from the east. The wind direction appears to favor any Lake Huron band getting into Ashtabula County between about 8PM Sunday and 4AM Monday before shifting west. This is a good 8 hour window of potential heavy snow rates in the county, although it’s possible the band snakes around a bit in Ashtabula County and keeps amounts somewhat under control. Forecast soundings from the NAM near Ashtabula/under the band from 1AM Monday reveal a tremendous thermodynamic environment for good lake effect…with steep lapse rates through the entire snow growth zone and up to near 700mb along with very moist low levels. Wind shear is a little iffy, but otherwise the environment easily supports 1-2” per hour snow rates under the band for several hours while it is in Ashtabula County. Outside of the likely Huron connection into extreme NE Ohio Sunday night, the question is can snow keep going during the overnight hours after upstream lake moisture shifts to the west. It may be iffy for a little bit around midnight, however after midnight the core of the upper level trough begins moving overhead allowing moisture to increase, inversion heights to come well up, and also adding some large scale lift.

The event Sunday through Monday evening looks like it could be pretty interesting. Looks like a front moves through Sunday morning with winds going NW behind it. Lake effect conditions are marginal on Sunday with inversions near 6k feet and moisture to near that level, with a short fetch, so I don't expect much snow on Sunday as of right now...but with a NW flow, most of us should see some snow showers with maybe light amounts in the higher terrain. Sunday night the winds go more NNW and a decent upper level trough approaches, which will allow instability and moisture to improve markedly by Monday morning. This should allow accumulations to improve Sunday night in the higher terrain, and some Lake Huron moisture could make it into the Snowbelt east of Cleveland. The models show winds going N or even NNE on Monday behind the upper level trough which would likely push and Lake Huron connection into the Cleveland area and maybe even into the west side, with weaker multi-bands that favor the higher terrain persisting elsewhere. The models disagree with how long moisture sticks around on Monday which is key in a short fetch event...the Euro has nearly saturated air to 700mb from late Sunday night till late Monday afternoon (almost 12 hours), but the GFS and NAM show a shorter period of good moisture. While all solutions would yield some accumulations for probably the entire Snowbelt (both primary and secondary) and Cleveland metro, how long moisture hangs around determines whether or not the event justifies an advisory or even warning for some counties. The Euro has lake to 850mb differentials of 20-23C on Monday with lake to 500mb differentials of around 40C, with northerly winds and deep moisture to above 700mb, which could actually end up being a warning criteria event for the higher terrain in the secondary Snowbelt and primary Snowbelt if that verified. The GFS and NAM with less moisture would probably keep amounts more to a 1-4" range which would be spread around to a lot of areas and would be welcomed, but wouldn't be as exciting. Anyways, we'll see what happens. The dusting of snow I woke up to yesterday still hasn't completely melted and it's flurrying now, which is nice to see.

Just about 10 months without a "real" snow event is pretty incredible, considering there's about a six month window each year for us to be in the running to get snow. Our "luck" with no synoptic storms will eventually run out. I did some loose research for a class about synoptic snow storms at CLE, CAK and YNG and after filtering out any lake effect events was left with 33 synoptic storms in my 30 year period that dropped at least 8" in 24 hours at one of those sites...so about one per winter. I think the longest stretch in the 30 year period with no 8" synoptic storms at any of the 3 sites was 3 winters...so you'd hope we're getting to the point where we're due for one.

I think there's a half decent chance CLE gets their first inch on Monday the 4th. Needless to say we're a tad behind...

Just woke up to a light dusting of snow here, sort of unexpected.

I don't want to jump the gun but the GFS and CMC show a significant mixed precip event Monday night. Last night's Euro was a cold rain but not far off. It's something to watch at least with cold air trying to seep south out of Ontario and Quebec and a moisture laden low coming north.

Here's my best guess at actual amounts from this past lake effect snow...had to estimate using radar, satellite and elevation maps in some areas. The biggest bust was as a result of the band getting farther south than expected for a time Saturday morning, resulting in the southern edge of the better snow getting farther south in Geauga, Ashtabula and Crawford Counties. Other than that things went fairly well compared to expectations.

Geauga County definitely over performing my expectations, especially between 322 and 422. In CLE's 9:30am AFD they said it was "too late" for an advisory for Geauga...I think the current 1"/hr rates there that aren't in a hurry to diminish suggest otherwise but that's their reasoning. Have about half an inch on the ground at work in Bedford Heights. Edit: to be fair to CLE, the snow in Geauga did really lighten after this post. Although earlier this morning was different.

CLE is at their finest this morning leaving Geauga (and one could argue NE Cuy too) out of an advisory. There have been reports of up to 6" in northern Geuaga and there's still a band sitting there and they just issued a special weather statement.

Several 5-10" reports in northern Ashtabula...6" in South Madison in the chimney of Geauga...8" in Edinboro. Still pretty good bands going. It's too bad the winds really didn't go WNW for any length of time with this event because it's producing. Did get a quick dusting here about an hour ago as the band did briefly get to here before starting to shift northeast again.

Congrats on the snow! I don't think it'll make it here, but it's nice to see for you guys up there. I really don't know if there's a rhyme or reason to these bands getting farther south vs staying farther north than modeled. Up until the last couple of hours band placement was just about where you'd expect it, although now it's farther south than I thought it would get.

There should be impressive totals when they come in...Lake County most certainly needed a warning and Geauga County needed(s) an advisory, although it wouldn't shock me if someone north of Montville did squeak in 6". Looking at satellite and radar the current band may last another few hours with only a slow weakening. It could get a little farther south here shortly before starting to drift back north. Maybe someone can see another 3-4" today on top of what's fallen already.