OHweather

Have been getting some decent snow showers at times through the morning and have about an inch down. As someone who likes snow, I always chuckle at other people who like snow saying they "don't want" a snow event at the beginning of March because it's too small...especially in a winter where Cleveland and the west side have been extremely snow starved. I understand 1-3" of fluff isn't the most exciting, but snow is snow and personally, I enjoy any amount of it. If you're really ready for Spring to start, it's coming in less than a week and a small snow tomorrow isn't going to do anything to slow it down. It just gives snow lovers one last bit to cling to is how I look at it. If we were going for an all time futility record I could see rooting for a miss. Although this winter should be bottom 5 or maybe even bottom 3 in the snowfall department, least snowy isn't possible anymore.

The tally for what I've seen in Athens is 22-23", and they haven't had any other substantial snow when I've not been there, so that's roughly where their seasonal total stands. That's actually a bit above normal!

There's a half decent lake enhanced setup late tonight into early Wednesday. Maybe someone in the higher terrain can squeak out 2-3". What a winter...

It's snowing pretty good in Chardon, with some on the roads and a good accumulation on the grass. Pretty sad if the lakeshore doesn't even squeak in 1" out of this.

It looks like the higher terrain is finally seeing better snow. I'd have to imagine accumulations of half an inch per hour are occurring, and moderate to briefly heavy snow in the higher terrain will continue for a while. Closer to the lakeshore it'll be more of a struggle.

Just so I'm on record, here's my map. Don't have time for any sort of a write-up, busy day and I have my own Wx issues here to worry about. I can certainly see someone jack-potting to 8-10" assuming any mixing issues at the beginning of the storm aren't too prolonged.

Looks like they haven't looked at any model runs since yesterday morning. They still have time to fix it this afternoon and get some lead time on the snow but they better get it right now and not wait till 4am to do it.

The Euro has an additional (after this morning) QPF of a quarter inch for CLE with the 0.50" line running from SW to NE through central Summit and Geauga.

You'd probably get two feet if that happened

Here's my thinking on amounts. Very impressive snow squall potential along the front. It'll be quick moving, but will hit during the commute and may be very intense...a little lightning wouldn't shock me...so it could be nasty. Lake effect conditions with a NW wind are very favorable through about midnight, so I'd expect disorganized but still intense squalls to affect Lorain and Medina east through midnight, with intensity and coverage decreasing some after midnight as drier air moves in and as it gets cold enough to limit snow ratios. Some snow showers will continue through Saturday but dry air/short fetch/potentially still iffy ratios may keep additional amounts light. There's potential for a few to several inches in the higher terrain of the Snowbelt with potentially moderate to heavy amounts where the Lake Huron band sets up. I'm not impressed with the setup near the lakeshore after the quick early-evening squall. I also don't agree with (nor am I surprised about) CLE not issuing advisories west through the entire metro area with a burst of heavy snow and wind during the commute and very dicey conditions continuing after the commute for several hours with lake effect squalls and gusty winds. Amounts as is should at least get close to advisory criteria and the low visibility/blowing snow/falling temps/timing should be compounding factors that would push many over the edge in terms of issuing advisories.

I'm guessing those areas got 8-10" total based on the 7" in Shaker through 5pm Weds and radar from the rest of the event. They only got hit with the band for about an hour last night so I think that's reasonable.

My general thinking is a short duration of heavy snows late tomorrow afternoon and evening followed by lighter multi-bands with lower ratios due to the cold Saturday into Saturday night. My early guess is 3-6" in the higher terrain from Medina east through the Snowbelt with 6-10" where the Huron connection is (most likely eastern Ashtabula or NW PA). Amounts are marginal but the burst of heavy snow late tomorrow and falling temps/gusty winds tomorrow night into Saturday should and "hopefully" will prompt advisories from Lorain and Medina Counties east.

There was 7" in Shaker as of like 5PM yesterday. Hopefully they have another 24 hour total reported this evening, which would help. I have the radar loops saved from early yesterday on which will help but I always give the ground truth reports most weight if they're there.

Do any of you have an idea on how much eastern Cuyahoga County got? The only spotter report is 11.5" thus far in Solon. I'm going to try to map the snow totals at some point when I get the time and that hole there is really annoying. And LPR is down to 1/4 mile visibility in that Lorain County band...not bad! A few areas may get 3 or 4" more today if the bands don't move too quickly.

My brother had roughly 8" total in Twinsburg as of midnight with a little over 4" of that falling this evening. My mom in my old stomping grounds in Solon had 10-11" total as of a little before midnight and got 6-7" this evening. No advisory in Twinsburg and just an advisory in Solon

The depth at CLE is 7" per the most recent hourly METAR. The depth at 5PM was 3". They took a while to get under the band and have already gotten 4".

The band did a lot of meandering around you it looked like. Was wondering if you got hit enough to get something half decent

I'm not aloud to complain after an out of the blue winter storm warning here yesterday CLE sent out a new WSW at 9:10PM and kept Cuyahoga in an advisory for 2-5". That's pretty much the hourly rate in the band...

The 480/422 corridor from Independence out to Solon and Bainbridge has been getting absolutely crushed the last hour. Wow

7" in Ohio City is really good, more than I would've thought thus far. I'm not sure if the band will focus enough for any one spot to actually get 4" or more in an hour but instantaneous rates that high are definitely occurring. The band keeps back building over western Lake Erie. Pound town for sure

I honestly have no clue what more CLE wants before issuing a warning for Cuyahoga. Not only will the eastern part of the county easily exceed warning criteria (if they haven't already) but some of western Cuyahoga will probably push it too. There's a band probably producing 3"+ per hour rates right now bisecting the county and no signs of it moving in the immediate future. I'll say this as nicely as I can but they have no idea what to do with Cuyahoga County. They have completely butchered it three events in a row now.

You guys are going to get absolutely pummeled over the next several hours. Single band forming from northern Lorain across Cuyahoga into Geuaga and Ashtabula...winds don't move much, convergence increases and there's a steady feed of upstream moisture from lower Lake MI feeding that band. There's also a trough with an accompanying burst of snow north of Detroit that will push south across the lake and contribute to very heavy snow over the next few hours. Instability...moisture depth...inversion heights...snow ratios and more organized bands will maximize rates. Still think some 3-4" per hour rates may occur for a time and I also think my widespread 4-8" for tonight in the Snowbelt including inland Cuyahoga with locally 10" will easily work out. With some minor to locally moderate addition accums Thursday I'm now fairly sure all areas will get into my forecast ranges and some will bust high...including more widespread foot amounts in eastern Cuyahoga than my map had.

LSR of 5" in 6 hours from South Madison and a 24 hour total of 7" in Shaker Heights

I think the biggest issue today was the first trough dropped south and shear increased during the afternoon. Those factors will disrupt a band any time of year so it's tough to pin it on sun angle. Either way...looks like a band may be developing over the western basin. If anything decently organized can develop it'll rip really good.

Convergence has weakened some as the trough has pushed inland and there may be a bit more shear, which may also help explain why the snow is less organized than earlier. The trough extends across central Lorain, southern Cuyahoga and southern Geauga Counties. The winds gain a slightly more northerly component over the next few hours so the trough may wiggle south a little farther. A good upstream connection into the primary Snowbelt and weak convergence with the trough is keeping a somewhat more focused area of snow going but it's too disorganized for rates of more than 1" per hour right now. With a good upstream connection into the primary Snowbelt, decent snow showers should continue all afternoon. The shortwave moves by this evening, increasing instability and moisture as well as adding a brief period of larger scale lift. The winds on land may back a bit this evening as temps drop away from the lake which could shift the trough back north a bit and intensify convergence. The combination of an upstream connection continuing...a very deep layer of instability with equilibrium heights rising to near 10k feet...good ambient moisture...exceptional snow ratios and strong convergence may focus a very heavy band this evening, and it could affect parts of Lorain/Cuyahoga/Geauga Counties. I could see rates briefly maxing out at 3-4" per hour if this band can develop. Later tonight winds do go more NW which should push the convergence south into Medina/Summit/Portage and cause any bands to become more multi-banded and less organized. Moisture decreases some later tonight so with the short fetch better snows should become more localized in any upstream connections with the heaviest in the higher terrain. A three lake connection from Superior-Michigan-Erie still looks to possibly remain in the Cleveland metro and adjacent primary and secondary Snowbelt later tonight into Thursday morning. On Thursday the winds slowly back to the WNW and W before going SW Thursday night. Instability remains moderate on Thursday but moisture decreases some more. Increasing convergence and some upstream moisture continuing to pass through may allow some moderate snow showers to continue in the primary belt but they may not be extremely organized. Am thinking additional amounts through this afternoon of 1-3" more due to the disorganized but still intense nature of the snow showes. Locations well south of the lake could get an inch or two as well as decent snow showers are occurring well inland as expected. This evening through tonight I am becoming more confident that 4-8" will fall across parts of Cuyahoga and Geauga, with 4" amounts possible in parts of Lorain, northern Medina, northern Summit and northern Portage as well due to a potentially intense band this evening followed by multi-bands with the heaviest bands persisting where the upstream connection develops. The winds look pretty steady and well aligned for a time late tonight into early Thursday so it wouldn't shock me if local overnight totals of up to 10" occur wherever the upstream connection develops later tonight if it can lock in. Maybe another 1-4" in the primary Snowbelt on Thursday. Overall given the 2-6" that fell last night in northern/eastern Cuyahoga, Lake and Geauga (with locally up to 8" in Conneaut where the band briefly sat this morning) and forecast additional amounts I think the forecast is reasonably on track...with the exception of Ashtabula lakeshore where amounts locally will be higher than my top end. It's possible that 12" total amounts sneak into more of eastern Cuyahoga County, especially in the higher terrain.