OHweather

6z GFS would be near disaster. I didn't look closely but it brings thunderstorms in with the mid-week system. Best case at this point is the storm is on the weaker side and we only see 40's and stratiform rain. 50's or warmer with storms would be bad ala the end of February 2011. The gulf will be wide open ahead of this storm so it's possible if the storm winds up at all.

I even got more than what CLE measured all the way down here and it snowed very lightly for all of two hours Looking forward to getting home later today and seeing the glacier before it melts later next week...after one more moderate snow on Sunday.

Between Thursday and Friday nights, I think at least one can over perform and get to -10 at CLE and make up for today's warmer high. We shall see.

Yeah I'd have to imagine it's frozen solid. Ironically if you look at radar through the middle of the night there was still some enhancement from the lake...not a ton but a little. Amazing how that can still happen with the ice although there is a small amount of moisture picked up through sublimation I believe.

The new climate report says CLE got 2.7" of snow on 0.38" of liquid. With a high of 26 and a low of 12 (morning low of 13). Tell me guys, since I wasn't there, did the snow from Saturday have the density of freshly poured concrete? :lmao: Apparently, when it snows 2" in two hours, with two other hours with moderate snow, and several other hours of light snow, and air temps welll below freezing, it all adds up to 2.7". What a gosh darn joke.

After the 26/13 max/min for Saturday, the average monthly temp at CLE for February is 15.5...second coldest ever, behind 15.2 in 1875. If temp forecasts pan out this week it's possible for the monthly mean to drop to roughly 14.0...we shall see.

CLE hit -17 this morning, which appears to do a number of things: -New daily record -New February monthly record -Coldest since January 1994 -Tied for 4th coldest ever in Cleveland

If the lake effect clouds can diminish quickly enough, I think a few degrees colder is a good bet.

That seems to be the going theory. Reading the New England threads during windy storms, BOS appears to have the same issue.

I want to go for the coldest February record, we don't have these chances often. That record has stood since 1875! After that, we can get a "warmer" (say 25-30 degree) big dog the first week of March when I'm in town. Then we can torch the last three weeks of March and charge the lake for the inevitable April LES snowstorm (with how cold the last two Springs have been I'm surprised we haven't pulled off something in April either year of note, although there were half decent late March LES events the last two years)

On a more serious note, through Tuesday the average temp at CLE for February was 17.2, which if it held would be the 5th coldest February on record. The coldest on record is 15.2 in 1875. Here are the forecast mins/maxes at CLE for the next week from the weather service. Hourly weather graphs were used at times when a min was occurring at midnight on a given day: Wednesday: Low 1F, high 13F (7) Thursday: Low -6F, high 4F (-1) Friday: Low -10F, high 11F (0.5) Saturday: Low 10F, high 30F (20) Sunday: Low 7F, high 26F (16.5) Monday: Low 3F, high 17F (10) Tuesday: Low 3F, high 21F (12) The only day that appears likely to be warmer than the current daily average for February is Saturday. It is possible that we get a few degrees warmer on Saturday, but I also believe the mins early next week could also get a little colder, so it all comes out in the wash. Either way, when added in, the next week's forecast takes the February average down to 14.5 through Tuesday the 24th! Thereafter, a quick look at the GFS and Euro (yes, it may change), shows that it may be hard for the average to come up much after that. We've got a shot I think! *One potential fly in the ointment is the snow completely melting by early next week, which is probably very unlikely. That would make those mins at least harder to verify.

I'd say bring the low up to Detroit, drench you guys with rain and southerly winds, and move some ice around

I'll have to look later, but I wonder if this has a chance at being the coldest February ever in Cleveland. More very impressive cold coming and no above average temps in site.

It's possible you guys break two more records later this week, and it's also possible rural areas get colder than -20 again Friday morning. Incredible

Thanks guys...snow hasn't been accumulating too quickly yet, but it's been 5-10 degrees here for the duration of the storm (which no one here can remember a storm so cold in SE Ohio) and the roads are a mess. That is incredible that ERI tied an all time record! May have a similar chance Thursday night depending on where the heart of the surface high tracks..airmass looks similar if you can stay clear/calm. We'll have a snow pack here and could also really tank

HZY got to -23 and even CLE got to -12. You got yours Saturday, today it's my turn

yes you were I know why they downplayed. It's because the models only showed a quarter inch of QPF, and for some reason a lot of people still have the mindset that snow accumulations and impact can simply be figured by multiplying model QPF by 10. Even though a quick look at a surface plot would have suggested very gusty winds and cold temps leading to higher ratios, higher accums and a lot of blowing. How much did you end up with? The airport measures snow at synoptic times (0, 6, 12, 18z) so the snow in the climo is likely only through 18z/1PM. Even through then, there's a 100% chance it's too low. The snow was really whipping by that point so I'm sure it was very difficult to measure, and at an open airport I'm sure a lot of it did just blow away. It's unfortunate, because what potentially may be the worst storm of the winter could go down as like 3" "officially" at CLE. Shaker Heights recently came in with a 12 hour total of 8" for perspective.

Snow showers are increasing over Lake Erie again, appears to be some low level moisture from northern Lake Michigan coming all the way down. Looking at mesoanalysis and water vapor, there does appear to be a trough at the surface and also evident at 850mb and 700mb moving across the lake, with increased mid-level moisture, so we could see another uptick here for a few hours of snow showers. There has been a heavy band well west of town too downwind of the bigger crack in the ice. The Lake Huron band is curving well east, but behind the trough as winds go more NNW it should shift west. It'll be close for Lake/Geauga Counties. With such poor snow growth, I'd generally expect additional amounts of an inch or so in the higher terrain and less elsewhere...the best chance for maybe 2-3" at most will be if a Huron connection develops, but that may be east of all of you in NE Ohio. Winds are still whipping and visibilities are still occasionally dropping to 1/4 of a mile at obs sites. This was a very high impact storm considering it was a Saturday. There have been a multitude of accidents all over the place. The ball was dropped by local media and yes, the NWS. I feel like I can say that based on the impact and based on the fact that I harped on this being high impact for days with more than enough explanation for why I felt that way. No advisories were issued until the event was WELL underway (and honestly, based on a couple of warning criteria reports and the impact, this needed a warning as far west as Lorain and Medina), and although many mets on TV last night did mention a potential snow squall and some blowing snow, they were too focused on the cold. Cold, while dangerous, doesn't cause cars to run into each other and shut down freeways, but that's just my thinking. I'm curious to see what kind of temperatures we can see over the coming days. The 12z Euro shows two more potential shots of 850mb temps getting below -25C again...one later this week...so we may not be done with potential record cold. Unbelievable pattern that has set up for cold.

CAK has been at 1/4 mile visibility with wind gusts above 35MPH for two consecutive hourly obs. CLE is a bit too far NW for the better lake effect, but CAK continues to be in and out of bands, so we'll see if the winds drop enough or visibilities come up enough to avoid an official blizzard at CAK KCAK 141951Z 34023G34KT 1/4SM R23/1000V2400FT -SN BLSN BKN010 OVC027 M11/M14 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 35034/1911 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP051 P0000 T11061139 $ KCAK 141851Z 35020G33KT 1/4SM R23/1200V2400FT -SN BLSN VV013 M08/M12 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 36033/1849 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP025 P0001 T10831122

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH1245 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...PERIODS OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BYANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST....SNOW SQUALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING THEAREA. VISIBILITY IS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO IN SOME OF THE HEAVIERBURSTS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. SNOW WILL STARTTO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 2 PM BUT INCREASINGNORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHTBEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH FRIGIDAIR TO RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOWZERO OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.OHZ010>013-020>023-150145-/O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0011.150214T1745Z-150214T2100Z//O.CON.KCLE.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150216T0000Z/LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA...WARREN1245 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THISAFTERNOON......WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECTUNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.* SNOW...WILL BE HEAVIEST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH 2 PM. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR A STORM TOTAL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. SNOW SQUALLS WILL CAUSE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.* WIND CHILL...WILL DROP BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH 25 TO 30 BELOW OVERNIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO.* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.* IMPACTS...WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS VALUES OF 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT WILL FREEZE EXPOSED FLESH AND CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. AVOID OUTDOOR EXPOSUREPRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINEWITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOREXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREESBELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTUREOUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OFWINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BESIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHERIS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHERDETAILS OR UPDATES.

Chatham NNW of Cleveland on the north shore has still been sitting at 1/4 to 1/2 mile visibility still, even with little discernible on radar or satellite in that area. I still think there will be a general decrease in the snow soon...the burst along the shore appears to be with another wind shift dropping south judging by radar...but with the blowing snow and falling temps, things will be very slow to improve where even just light to moderate snow continues.

They came in with 0.9" last night. I'm sure they did get 2-3" last hour, but I'm also sure that 1.5-2.5" of that "blew away" from where they measure. We'll see what they come in with today. There should be a general decrease in the snow soon as the band keeps sagging south, but snow showers and blowing snow will continue. We'll see if there's a nice uptick in LES by mid to late afternoon or if the lake is just too icy.

I've never seen that before...I've seen a winter storm warning include wind chill but not the other way around. Like I said, I think they were sort of "stuck" once the wind chill warning was issued last night starting at noon. I may be wrong but that's the impression I got. The AFD actually almost directly discussed almost everything I took issue with in my post at like 4AM...I'm glad someone there finally explained what's going on with the snow and wind in some forecast products, but don't agree with no snow/winter storm headlines being issued off the bat.

CLE did update their AFD at 11AM with much better reasoning and did hit the snow/blowing harder in the wind chill warning. I think by this point they were sort of bound by the wind chill warning issued last night without any winter weather advisories and didn't want to confuse people. I still stand by that a winter weather advisory or winter storm warning should have been issued for the snow, with wind chill warnings kicking in later, but it was nice to get a nice explanation and a mentioning of the snow/blowing in the wind chill warning...which wasn't initially done last night. It's actually up to 35F here. Hoping we get unstable enough for a really nice squall in a couple of hours.

Almost every traffic cam is just a wall of white in Cuyahoga County. Impressive squall.