OHweather

Wednesday night-Thursday night looks somewhat interesting to me...deep upper level trough will swing through with a couple of surface wind shifts and decent low to mid level moisture on the GFS and Euro. MODIS imagery showed a number of large cracks in the ice yesterday through the clouds, and with warm weather today and some shifting winds over the next few days those cracks could expand. Could possibly be enough to wring out some moderate LES, especially in the higher terrain. We did have a decent "frozen lake event" Friday January 30th and even had a decent band Monday morning on the back side of the storm, so this could be something to watch. No MODIS imagery from today yet, but here are the two "best" shots from a COD visible loop from today:

I'm sensing hints of optimism in Trent's recent posts

24 hour advisory criteria is 6", so technically that was met, although the break in the snow might be why they didn't issue an advisory until 5:30PM. The advisory criteria for most offices specifies that they can issue advisories for lighter amounts if there are aggravating circumstances...I'd say 1" per hour rates during rush hour counts. Hopefully the commute wasn't too bad although I'm sure it was.

The current burst of heavy snow that will persist through rush hour combined with temperatures falling into the 20's during the commute would be a prime candidate for an advisory, even though widespread 4"+ amounts won't occur.

I'm sure people who don't want a lot of snow to fall think the data is accurate. I'm sure they also think some of the storm total measurements from last storm that are obvious low balls are accurate. This map while sometimes off appears to be a fair representation of the last storm.

The storm totals CLE sent out in a PNS aren't all storm totals. You can tell which ones are and which ones aren't, but for some places like Solon I don't get why the wrong storm total is listed when they got 3 12-hour snow reports from there.

The 5.0" 24 hour snowfall report from "2W South Russell" is an absolute disgrace

I have assignments to turn in tomorrow, or else I would've. I sleep like crap here and it doesn't snow lol.Euro isn't perfect, but it might have done slightly better than the NAM/GFS in the last two days with this storm.

I'd have to imagine you'll get another 1-3" as the "deform" swings through with some lake enhancment. Hundreds of schools already closed for tomorrow.

Last night's 0z Euro for the win? Here was the map: Maybe just a little, tiny bit too far south with the cut-off. Euro was consistent with its 12/0z runs yesterday, but all the short term modelling made me want to reduce totals this morning.

That's true. We shall see if they clean things up in the PNS later or send out storm total numbers tomorrow. Would be nice! 8.5" is not a bad storm! This has got to be rivaling your biggest storm since early 2011 I'd think? I'd have to imagine double digits will be easy for Cleveland proper at this point.

Some of the LSR's don't jive with eachother or with what I saw myself when I left or have heard from other people who should be able to provide a reasonable estimate. I can say no way to the 3.8" in Twinsburg since I had about that much a couple miles east when I left at 2:30 and they didn't get any rain, just snow most of the day. Also: 3.0" in Old Brooklyn when CLE a few miles west had 4.4" just through 1PM? I've heard "at least 6 inches" from a few people in the Youngstown area, but Austintown only had 4.0". Shaker Heights had 4", but our western Geauga County posters have 7"+, and Mentor has 7.2". Clinton only has 2.5" but a weather fanatic who plows snow in Green a few miles east said "at least 4 inches". The 6.5" spotter report from west Akron pretty much voids the 3.8" in Twinsburg and the 2.5" in Clinton considering they were mostly snow in southern Summit until about an hour ago. 3.5" in Hiram also seems low but there's nothing else nearby to compare it with. Call me a weenie for thinking several reports are so low, and maybe I'm wrong, but with a wet snow and no wind I wouldn't expect these discrepancies. Given the CLE METARs, what was falling at home when I left and what you guys have said, especially since some of you have been or are snow spotters, I think the low reports are suspect.

Thanks guys, glad this ended up being a good storm up there! Oddly, some areas even inland will at least approach the low end of my map from yesterday and exceed the high numbers on my map from today. I guess that's why you put a range on snowfall projections. As for CLE, I believe they measure every 6 hours, so there's a good chance that 4.4" was just through 1:00PM.

How much snow are you guys up to? I see the dry slot keeps filling in over the northern two tiers of counties from Lake Erie.

Heavy snow with large flakes here now. Leaving shortly. The drive down to about CAK will be fun, then probably just drizzle father south.

Dry slot appears to be filling in a little bit.

The most recent run of the HRRR does get a mix all the way to the lakeshore by late evening, but shows over half an inch of liquid falling as snow before then. Even if CLE mixes that'd put them at about 8" for the storm before the mixing occurs.

1" per hour rates at CLE for the last two hours. Looks like 3" or so so far here. Anyone in the lower two zones on my map is already on the low end of the expected totals and lakeshore areas should have little trouble getting there. I'll feel like a jackass if my first map performs better than my "revised" one.

I feel like up through the winter of 2010-2011 we had more things trend in our favor than not...that was a very snowy decade in Cleveland leading up to that. Since then, even with a good seasonal total last winter, nothing has really broken our way in terms of major snowfall. So I understand being a pessimist. It's tough trying to forecast for the general public in this town. Because every met in this town probably has all of these busts burned in the back of their brain, but it would also not be good to call for a 4-8" storm and have a foot fall or something along those lines. The one red flag that had me kind of concerned was the models never actually stopped inching north. I thought yesterday morning when all models were zeroing in 24 hours out we'd be good and the trend would stop, but it didn't. I still lean optimistic, and eventually one will break our way, but for now we'll still have to wait for the big one.

Don't have much positive to say. I think CLE still stands a good shot at seeing over 6", but the potential this thing had of over 10" won't be realized. CLE could barely stay all snow, as the NAM and GFS both show either only a small above freezing layer or keep the whole column at or below freezing at CLE...in addition, the precip could be somewhat convective this evening, which could cause enough dynamic cooling to keep locations all snow. This will definitely be a big bust inland, considering 48 hours ago a lot of outlets were worried about the lakeshore being too far north for heavy snow. I sarcastically told someone early in the week that this seemed like a storm that looks great for CLE until 24 hours out and ends up screwing us...up until yesterday I really didn't think that would happen though. Here's my "updated map", and it may still be generous. Most areas should hit the low numbers, but the high numbers may be a stretch.

Here’s my forecast… Tough call due to continued north shifts on the models bringing mixing issues and a dry slot closer to Cleveland… This storm will come in three “phases” across Ohio…the first phase will be overrunning snows late Saturday night into the middle of Sunday afternoon…the second phase will be a trowal type feature as we get on the nose of strong low to mid-level WAA ahead of the mid-level low late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening…the third will be a weak deformation zone/some lake enchantment late Sunday night into Monday morning. As for the low track, I don’t buy the track up to YNG that some models are trying to hint at. Although the models have steadily trended north for days now, I still believe there’s a cap to how for north the surface low goes. Even the super amped SREF members don’t show the trough taking on a negative tilt as it passes through Ohio, so the surface low track should be more W-E and I’d expect it to be near I-70. I currently like a GFS/Euro blend as the last couple runs of those two models have been fairly consistent with mainly cosmetic changes. The GFS is slightly north of the Euro. The overrunning snows look mainly light to moderate. There will be a fairly deep DGZ during the overrunning snows, but lift within the DGZ won’t be strong and surface temps won’t be far below freezing, so ratios may not be great during the overrunning snows. Areas north of route 30 will be on the nose of pretty good WAA at 700mb during this phase of the storm and will get a nice boost from the right-rear quadrant of a upper level jet streak, so I do expect moderate snow at times during the overrunning. I could see the overrunning snows producing 3-6” by mid Sunday afternoon mainly in the northern couple tiers of counties. The phase of the storm where northern OH could get into a trowal like feature is when the heaviest snow rates may occur, and it’s also the most uncertain part of the forecast IMO. Northern OH will be under fairly good upper support in the right-rear quad of another upper level jet stream and left-exit quad of another jet streak. Northern OH will also be on the nose of a 50 knot 850mb jet with high theta-e air within that LLJ, and Northern OH will also be on the nose of another burst of strong 700mb winds. This could support elevated convection and heavy snow rates. This phase of the storm looks to last about 6 hours late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, and snow rates of 1” per hour or heavier are possible at times. This phase could produce another 4-8” of snow in favored areas. The weak deform will mainly affect NW OH and SE MI as it looks now. The 700mb low track will be over Lake Erie which suggests north-central and NE OH could dry slot at this point. The weak deform could add a couple inches to parts of NW Ohio. Some lake enhanced snow will likely occur through Monday morning until the deeper synoptic moisture pulls out. With a NE wind going N this lake enhancement could favor Cleveland points west. All told, with models still insisting on over an inch of QPF, the long duration of the storm and a couple long opportunities for moderate to heavy snow, I can easily see how CLE gets over a foot of snow, and considered going 10-14” across all of northern OH. However, a GFS/Euro blend takes the 850mb low track right over Cleveland. As a general rule of thumb with storms that come from the west or southwest, mixing will get up to the 850mb low track, regardless of what models show. The heaviest snow is typically north of the 850mb low track. So, even though I could see how this produces a foot in Cleveland, I decided to hedge a little bit and give myself some wiggle room . I do think MFD, CAK and YNG mix at times, and the mid-level low tracks passing well north of those areas also supports the heaviest snow being north of that corridor.

Excitement building as the 0z models trend strong with the storm but still keep northern Ohio all snow. All models show 0.9-1.2" of QPF up to or very close to Cleveland. I understand some reasons to be cautious and have been burned by some storms the last few winters myself. I also agree with some of the reasons to be somewhat optimistic that Trent gave. My preliminary thinking was 6-10", and tomorrow I'll put together a forecast. Given the potential for an extended period of overrunning snows and then heavy snows during the evening on the nose of the LLJ, local amounts could top a foot. But I'll decide what I want to do with that on Saturday. It does, but at the end of the day 200 miles is a little too much white knuckling I'm debating staying until Monday morning, but have work to turn in Monday at noon so I'm not sure what I'll do. This could be one to be here for. The snow will start lightening by that point in NW Ohio, but the snow will be powdery and winds will be gusty, so you could have some decent issues. NW Ohio can be nearly crippled by 6-12" of snow, especially if it's windy. Maybe since 30 is a main road they'll keep it clearer though.

Driving up shortly...although ill probably try to get out Sunday before the heavier stuff hits.

SUN 00Z 01-FEB -4.4 -6.3 1024 69 21 0.00 552 533 SUN 06Z 01-FEB -3.0 -6.2 1022 73 88 0.00 550 533 SUN 12Z 01-FEB -2.9 -6.5 1021 96 98 0.09 547 531 SUN 18Z 01-FEB -2.0 -6.3 1018 92 97 0.15 545 530 MON 00Z 02-FEB -5.1 -6.2 1014 92 100 0.24 541 530 MON 06Z 02-FEB -8.4 -7.3 1010 87 100 0.26 534 526 MON 12Z 02-FEB -10.6 -11.8 1015 80 98 0.15 529 517 MON 18Z 02-FEB -11.6 -14.9 1023 66 22 0.02 531 513 0.91" for CLE

Awesome! The Chardon cam still shows heavy snow even though the returns have weakened some since earlier this morning. It's still probably snowing 1" per hour in Chardon. I figured there'd be some enhancement, but if you got 8" last night that's a lot more than I'd ever envision off of a frozen Lake Erie with a NW wind. Very impressive. Imagine amounts if the lake was open.