OHweather

That seems to be the going theory. Reading the New England threads during windy storms, BOS appears to have the same issue.

I want to go for the coldest February record, we don't have these chances often. That record has stood since 1875! After that, we can get a "warmer" (say 25-30 degree) big dog the first week of March when I'm in town. Then we can torch the last three weeks of March and charge the lake for the inevitable April LES snowstorm (with how cold the last two Springs have been I'm surprised we haven't pulled off something in April either year of note, although there were half decent late March LES events the last two years)

On a more serious note, through Tuesday the average temp at CLE for February was 17.2, which if it held would be the 5th coldest February on record. The coldest on record is 15.2 in 1875. Here are the forecast mins/maxes at CLE for the next week from the weather service. Hourly weather graphs were used at times when a min was occurring at midnight on a given day: Wednesday: Low 1F, high 13F (7) Thursday: Low -6F, high 4F (-1) Friday: Low -10F, high 11F (0.5) Saturday: Low 10F, high 30F (20) Sunday: Low 7F, high 26F (16.5) Monday: Low 3F, high 17F (10) Tuesday: Low 3F, high 21F (12) The only day that appears likely to be warmer than the current daily average for February is Saturday. It is possible that we get a few degrees warmer on Saturday, but I also believe the mins early next week could also get a little colder, so it all comes out in the wash. Either way, when added in, the next week's forecast takes the February average down to 14.5 through Tuesday the 24th! Thereafter, a quick look at the GFS and Euro (yes, it may change), shows that it may be hard for the average to come up much after that. We've got a shot I think! *One potential fly in the ointment is the snow completely melting by early next week, which is probably very unlikely. That would make those mins at least harder to verify.

I'd say bring the low up to Detroit, drench you guys with rain and southerly winds, and move some ice around

I'll have to look later, but I wonder if this has a chance at being the coldest February ever in Cleveland. More very impressive cold coming and no above average temps in site.

It's possible you guys break two more records later this week, and it's also possible rural areas get colder than -20 again Friday morning. Incredible

Thanks guys...snow hasn't been accumulating too quickly yet, but it's been 5-10 degrees here for the duration of the storm (which no one here can remember a storm so cold in SE Ohio) and the roads are a mess. That is incredible that ERI tied an all time record! May have a similar chance Thursday night depending on where the heart of the surface high tracks..airmass looks similar if you can stay clear/calm. We'll have a snow pack here and could also really tank

HZY got to -23 and even CLE got to -12. You got yours Saturday, today it's my turn

yes you were I know why they downplayed. It's because the models only showed a quarter inch of QPF, and for some reason a lot of people still have the mindset that snow accumulations and impact can simply be figured by multiplying model QPF by 10. Even though a quick look at a surface plot would have suggested very gusty winds and cold temps leading to higher ratios, higher accums and a lot of blowing. How much did you end up with? The airport measures snow at synoptic times (0, 6, 12, 18z) so the snow in the climo is likely only through 18z/1PM. Even through then, there's a 100% chance it's too low. The snow was really whipping by that point so I'm sure it was very difficult to measure, and at an open airport I'm sure a lot of it did just blow away. It's unfortunate, because what potentially may be the worst storm of the winter could go down as like 3" "officially" at CLE. Shaker Heights recently came in with a 12 hour total of 8" for perspective.

Snow showers are increasing over Lake Erie again, appears to be some low level moisture from northern Lake Michigan coming all the way down. Looking at mesoanalysis and water vapor, there does appear to be a trough at the surface and also evident at 850mb and 700mb moving across the lake, with increased mid-level moisture, so we could see another uptick here for a few hours of snow showers. There has been a heavy band well west of town too downwind of the bigger crack in the ice. The Lake Huron band is curving well east, but behind the trough as winds go more NNW it should shift west. It'll be close for Lake/Geauga Counties. With such poor snow growth, I'd generally expect additional amounts of an inch or so in the higher terrain and less elsewhere...the best chance for maybe 2-3" at most will be if a Huron connection develops, but that may be east of all of you in NE Ohio. Winds are still whipping and visibilities are still occasionally dropping to 1/4 of a mile at obs sites. This was a very high impact storm considering it was a Saturday. There have been a multitude of accidents all over the place. The ball was dropped by local media and yes, the NWS. I feel like I can say that based on the impact and based on the fact that I harped on this being high impact for days with more than enough explanation for why I felt that way. No advisories were issued until the event was WELL underway (and honestly, based on a couple of warning criteria reports and the impact, this needed a warning as far west as Lorain and Medina), and although many mets on TV last night did mention a potential snow squall and some blowing snow, they were too focused on the cold. Cold, while dangerous, doesn't cause cars to run into each other and shut down freeways, but that's just my thinking. I'm curious to see what kind of temperatures we can see over the coming days. The 12z Euro shows two more potential shots of 850mb temps getting below -25C again...one later this week...so we may not be done with potential record cold. Unbelievable pattern that has set up for cold.

CAK has been at 1/4 mile visibility with wind gusts above 35MPH for two consecutive hourly obs. CLE is a bit too far NW for the better lake effect, but CAK continues to be in and out of bands, so we'll see if the winds drop enough or visibilities come up enough to avoid an official blizzard at CAK KCAK 141951Z 34023G34KT 1/4SM R23/1000V2400FT -SN BLSN BKN010 OVC027 M11/M14 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 35034/1911 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP051 P0000 T11061139 $ KCAK 141851Z 35020G33KT 1/4SM R23/1200V2400FT -SN BLSN VV013 M08/M12 A2955 RMK AO2 PK WND 36033/1849 TWR VIS 1/2 SLP025 P0001 T10831122

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH1245 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...PERIODS OF WHITE OUT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BYANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST....SNOW SQUALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHING THEAREA. VISIBILITY IS DROPPING TO NEAR ZERO IN SOME OF THE HEAVIERBURSTS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR. SNOW WILL STARTTO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 2 PM BUT INCREASINGNORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW.WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHTBEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH FRIGIDAIR TO RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOWZERO OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.OHZ010>013-020>023-150145-/O.NEW.KCLE.WW.Y.0011.150214T1745Z-150214T2100Z//O.CON.KCLE.WC.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150216T0000Z/LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LORAIN...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...MEDINA...AKRON...RAVENNA...WARREN1245 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2015...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THISAFTERNOON......WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECTUNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON.* SNOW...WILL BE HEAVIEST AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH 2 PM. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR A STORM TOTAL OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. SNOW SQUALLS WILL CAUSE WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.* WIND CHILL...WILL DROP BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH 25 TO 30 BELOW OVERNIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW TO NEAR ZERO.* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.* IMPACTS...WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE IN FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLS VALUES OF 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT WILL FREEZE EXPOSED FLESH AND CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. AVOID OUTDOOR EXPOSUREPRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN A STRONG WIND WILL COMBINEWITH COLD TEMPERATURES TO CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS FOREXPOSED SKIN. THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT IS 25 DEGREESBELOW ZERO OR COLDER FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THOSE PLANNING TO VENTUREOUTDOORS SHOULD USE COMMON SENSE AND DRESS WARMLY.A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NORMALLY ISSUED FOR A VARIETY OFWINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS SUCH AS LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW,SLEET, FREEZING RAIN AND WIND CHILLS. WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BESIGNIFICANT, THE WORD ADVISORY IMPLIES THAT SEVERE WINTER WEATHERIS NOT ANTICIPATED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHERDETAILS OR UPDATES.

Chatham NNW of Cleveland on the north shore has still been sitting at 1/4 to 1/2 mile visibility still, even with little discernible on radar or satellite in that area. I still think there will be a general decrease in the snow soon...the burst along the shore appears to be with another wind shift dropping south judging by radar...but with the blowing snow and falling temps, things will be very slow to improve where even just light to moderate snow continues.

They came in with 0.9" last night. I'm sure they did get 2-3" last hour, but I'm also sure that 1.5-2.5" of that "blew away" from where they measure. We'll see what they come in with today. There should be a general decrease in the snow soon as the band keeps sagging south, but snow showers and blowing snow will continue. We'll see if there's a nice uptick in LES by mid to late afternoon or if the lake is just too icy.

I've never seen that before...I've seen a winter storm warning include wind chill but not the other way around. Like I said, I think they were sort of "stuck" once the wind chill warning was issued last night starting at noon. I may be wrong but that's the impression I got. The AFD actually almost directly discussed almost everything I took issue with in my post at like 4AM...I'm glad someone there finally explained what's going on with the snow and wind in some forecast products, but don't agree with no snow/winter storm headlines being issued off the bat.

CLE did update their AFD at 11AM with much better reasoning and did hit the snow/blowing harder in the wind chill warning. I think by this point they were sort of bound by the wind chill warning issued last night without any winter weather advisories and didn't want to confuse people. I still stand by that a winter weather advisory or winter storm warning should have been issued for the snow, with wind chill warnings kicking in later, but it was nice to get a nice explanation and a mentioning of the snow/blowing in the wind chill warning...which wasn't initially done last night. It's actually up to 35F here. Hoping we get unstable enough for a really nice squall in a couple of hours.

Almost every traffic cam is just a wall of white in Cuyahoga County. Impressive squall.

Claridon in Geauga County already at 5.5" as of 11AM. The lakeshore counties will have 4-7" widespread by 1PM before any LES kicks in. Way too low on my forecast, but I still would've issued a warning.

If Trent already had 2" at 8AM I say no way he has less than 4" by 1PM. Intense squall line over the lake and decent snow showers continuing behind it all the way past Detroit.

CLE's AFD isn't out yet, so I probably won't read it unless it's out soon because even I am going to sleep shortly. However, I'm really eager to figure out their reasoning for what they just did with their headlines. They issued a winter storm warning for Ashtabula County and NW PA. I'm cool with that (they issued the warning until 7PM Sunday and the WSW "includes the wind chill" and didn't issue any wind chill headlines there, but I've heard that offices in general don't try to issue multiple headlines on top of each other, so I won't say anything about that). For the rest of NE Ohio, they issued a wind chill warning starting noon Saturday. Based on the wind chills, I'm also cool with that. However, they didn't issue any winter weather advisories or winter storm warnings for anywhere else. This makes no sense to me (again though, maybe they have some reasoning other than "advisory criteria is 4 inches so we 'can't' issue an advisory for 2-4 inches", that's what I will respectfully call not helpful to the public). They may try to say that the "wind chill warning involves the snow" (which would be the first time I've heard that), however the wind chill headlines kick in at noon. There's a chance the squall along the front that will likely cause extremely hazardous conditions will be completely through Cleveland and Akron by noon. The wind chill product also does not mention blowing snow or low visibilities, which will be the biggest issues (as mentioned earlier, 2-4" of snow on its own isn't a big deal). The snow and blowing snow could continue well into Saturday evening in orographic lift areas and also the band that will probably set up on the west side downwind of the crack in the ice there. Also, if they issued a winter storm warning for Ashtabula, they need to issue it for the rest of the Snowbelt. Due to the lack of higher terrain in much of Ashtabula County, amounts in Geauga County are almost always the same as or higher than amounts in Ashtabula County. The only exception is if a Huron band sits over Ashtabula County and doesn't move any farther west, or if a W-E type band just hugs the Ashtabula lakeshore. However, there is strong support for whatever Huron band develops moving into Lake/Geauga Counties. With ice on Lake Erie, terrain will be needed to ring out better lake effect snow. You have more terrain in far southern Lake County, Cuyahoga County and Geauga County (hell throw northern Medina in there too) than anywhere in Ashtabula County. This all suggests that if they issued a WSW for Ashtabula that they can extend it at least to Cuyahoga and Summit, if not even another row of counties west. Maybe I shouldn't sit here at 3:30AM picking apart the NWS headline decisions, but I'm really at a loss right now. After trying to reason it out bits of brain actually started oozing from my nose. Oh well.

Hopefully this link still works in the AM...Andre on Fox 8 showed a time lapse from the crib, definitely some movement of the ice and what appears to be an area of open water http://fox8.com/2015/02/13/brutal-cold-temps-begin-moving-in-tomorrow/

I was trying to be "sociable" while typing this (it is Friday night after all) so it took a while haha A tall +PNA ridge extending almost to the North Pole is helping facilitate a cross polar flow Friday afternoon, which is allowing frigid air to pour south towards the Great Lakes straight from the Arctic. A lobe of the polar vortex (currently over western Hudson Bay) will drop south through the Great Lakes on Saturday, causing a surface low pressure pictured over Lake Superior above to move southeast and intensify across the lower Lakes. This will cause some light to moderate synoptic snow along and ahead of a cold front that will drop across northern Ohio Saturday morning, and the deep arctic airmass behind the front will help cause some lake effect snow across northern Ohio. Ice on Lake Erie and upstream lake moisture will be critical to the lake effect forecast. For the remainder of tonight and into Saturday morning, a nice shot of upper level divergence in the left-front quadrant of an upper level jet streak combined with some half decent warm air advection on the nose of a strong mid-level jet will cause light snow across northern Ohio. There could be an inch or so of snow by 7AM Saturday as most models spit out around 0.1” or a little less of liquid precip. Ratios tonight should be 12-15:1 with most of the modest low to mid level lift focused in the DGZ. As we head into Saturday, low level convergence will really increase along and immediately ahead of the arctic frontal boundary, and falling mid-level temperatures will result in steepening low to mid level lapse rates and some surface based instability. This will lead to the snow becoming a little more snow showery after sunrise on Saturday, but the snow intensity will also increase. This will all culminate in a brief period (an hour or so) of blinding snow squalls along the arctic front late Saturday morning near Lake Erie and around noon or so farther inland. A look at synoptic model plots and forecast soundings in BUFKIT all suggest a very impressive snow squall potential along the arctic front: There will be a very impressive shot of positive vorticity advection early Saturday afternoon across northern Ohio (and much of the state really). This is a source of lift and can also help raise equilibrium levels and increase instability. In addition, low level frontogenesis and convergence will be very strong along the arctic front (both sources of lift). Note how at 850mb, there is a very sharp temperature gradient, and also note the sharp and sudden shift in wind direction and increase in wind speeds along and behind the arctic front. These are both sources of convergence and lift that can help an intense snow squall develop. As alluded to above, the frontogenesis values are fairly strong in the low levels along the arctic front as it drops across northern Ohio late Saturday morning and early afternoon. The layer of deep moisture and steep lapse rates along the front on forecast soundings is impressive due to falling mid-level temps and large scale lift acting to steepen lapse rates and raise inversion levels: Although the model does show a weak inversion limiting the model equilibrium level, the steep lapse rates and good moisture extend well above 10k feet in the atmosphere. If there is enough open water on Lake Erie to modify the airmass at all, equilibrium levels easily climb above 10k feet. This all suggests a heavy burst of snow. The snow along the arctic front will not only be intense, it will also be very high ratio, with large dendrites likely. Note how the omega (vertical velocity) in the red lines is very strong in the dendrite growth zone (the purple and yellow contours). This suggests that snowflakes will grow very effectively in any snow squalls along the arctic front. With strong omega up to about 17k feet, a flash or two of lightning in any squalls along the front wouldn’t shock me. Although the snow squalls along the arctic front will be short lived, totals by early afternoon from a combination of the light snow tonight into early Saturday, and the snow showers/likely squalls ahead of and along the arctic front will likely be 2-4”. The high ratio nature of the snow up through this point will improve the likelihood of these totals being realized. Forecast soundings show 30-40 knot winds along and behind the arctic front in the boundary layer, really just above the ground…cold air advection should help a large portion of that mix down in gusts, causing 30-40MPH wind gusts along/behind the arctic front…strongest near Lake Erie. Due to the high ratio nature of the snow, it will easily blow around. Blowing snow along/behind the arctic front will undoubtedly cause visibility issues and road condition issues. Although there were some cirrus clouds on Friday, we got a good MODIS shot of Lake Erie. There is a large crack in the ice east of the Lake Erie islands towards Lorain (very common), and also along the northern lakeshore. These cracks appear to be slushy, but could open up some with breezy SW winds late Friday night into early Saturday and strong NWrly winds Saturday afternoon behind the arctic front. There are a few smaller cracks farther east, including a pencil thin but long from all the way up the central and eastern lakeshore that may open some if the southwesterly winds into early Saturday enough. So, not a lot of moisture to be picked up off of Lake Erie, but definitely some. Immediately behind the arctic front, instability may briefly decrease for a time as surface temperatures crash a little quicker than the mid-level temps (above)…however, the mid-level temps will quickly recover. There’s still a fairly deep layer of steep lapse rates (that gets deeper again by mid to late afternoon) behind the front and high RH air to above 10K feet, so orographic lift could help ring out snow showers starting very quickly behind the front. By later afternoon, a very deep layer of steep lapse rates will return and good moisture will remain to above 5k feet. Winds will become very well aligned out of the northwest. This may help any lake effect/orographic lift snow showers increase late Saturday afternoon after perhaps a brief lull behind the front. Snow growth will really diminish by this point as the dendrite growth zone is confined to near the ground (much of the lift is just above the ground). This suggests that even as lake effect snow/orgraphic lift snow increases again later Saturday afternoon that it may not pile up as quickly. The increase in instability later Saturday afternoon will correspond to the vort-max (500mb vorticity on right) moving over Lake Erie and also an increase in mid-level moisture. This all suggests an uptick in lake effect/CAA advection type snow showers…the most concentrated snow will probably be over the higher terrain in the secondary and primary Snowbelts where orographic lift will improve the odds of snow showers developing. In addition, a surface trough may also drop across the lake Saturday evening, acting as another source of potential increase snow showers downwind of the lake. This surface trough passage does appear to correspond to another increase in low level omega as shown in the NAM overview image above (where I drew a circles and got excited over omega in the DGZ early Saturday afternoon). Lake effect conditions remain favorable through Saturday evening, so it’s not inconceivable that the vort max passage/mid-level moisture increase and surface trough passage all combine to allow half decent lake effect snow showers to continue through much of Saturday evening, especially in the higher terrain where the NWrly winds will cause good orographic lift. On the sounding above the winds appear to be sheared, but that’s more a product of the trough passing (winds become better aligned again later). The winds veering with height suggests low level convergence along the surface trough…winds over the lake will be closer to the mid-level winds (hence more northerly) due to less friction over the water/ice and slightly warmer temperatures (due to whatever heat flux occurs from the lake to atmosphere)…the warmer temperatures promote mixing of the more northerly winds aloft to the ground. Winds over land will be lighter and NW as opposed to N…convergence near the shore where the two meet. Later Saturday night, inversion heights and moisture depth decrease quickly, so lake effect should decrease to just flurries after midnight. An exception may be under any Lake Huron band after midnight where light to moderate but very fine snow could continue into early Sunday. As for snowfall amounts…2-4” synoptic for most. The lake effect is tough. The snowflakes will become very small and hence much lower ratio by late Saturday afternoon, so it will be hard to rack up good accums. The biggest crack in the ice is east of the Lake Erie islands, so to account for this I figured in 1-2” of fine lake effect snow as far west as parts of Lorain/Medina County to push totals to 3-5” here…could see a local 6” total on the west side if a band forms intensely enough before the dendritic growth becomes very low. Farther east, with better terrain and potential Lake Huron moisture, even with the lower ratio of the snow, I have to figure at least another 2-4” of lake effect snow in the higher terrain of the primary Snowbelt. Even though there’s ice on the lake, there’s a lot suggesting decent snow will continue well into Saturday evening, especially in the higher terrain…so I painted in 4-7” here. The only way there’s more is if the Lake Huron connection is better than I think. As for impacts…winds will gust 30-40MPH behind the arctic front into Saturday evening before gradually decreasing. The snow will become increasingly fine Saturday afternoon and evening, which when combined with the wind could cause significant visibility restrictions into Saturday evening before a gradual improvement occurs. The falling snow and likely extensive blowing snow will cause roads to be very slick from late Saturday morning when the arctic front drops through into Saturday night. Wind gusts and visibilities may arguably push blizzard conditions where lake effect sets up Saturday afternoon and evening, although it may be hard for many spots to actually verify 3 hours straight of 0.25 mile or less visibility and 35MPH wind gusts…but some places will be close. Map above. As I typed that I almost got worried I'd be a tad low in spots, we'll see. Should be fun, expecting a nice squall down here too

I'm working on a write up for my blog and will post it here when I get done in an hour or two. In the meantime, here's my map. Am concerned about locally higher amounts, but with ratios getting really low by later tomorrow afternoon I'm not sure the higher terrain can squeeze out more than 2-3" of very fine flake lake effect.

They actually have 5"+ as far west as KCLE and 8"+ for central Geauga eastward. I think their amounts are often ball park or even too high, but they have been very conservative with issuing winter headlines, especially this winter. I'm sure they have their reasons, but I really think this needs an advisory or even warning for the reasons I laid out above. Their snowfall amounts would at least suggest an advisory if not warning based on the blowing snow. I'm sure they'll issue something later tonight or tomorrow. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/gis/images/CLE_Snow.png

Looking at MODIS imagery, those open areas do appear to be somewhat slushy. With breezy SW winds tonight into early tomorrow, and then strong and shifting winds tomorrow afternoon I do think some open water will reappear. There's a long but very thin W-E crack extending from north of Amherst east all the way up the eastern shore a few miles out. With the SW winds tonight and room for the ice to shift northeast thanks to the open water along the Canadian shore, it will very very interesting to see if that crack can widen. I'm fairly surprised there's no advisory from Cleveland. I think an area-wide 2-4" of snow is a good bet with another 1-2" at least from lake effect in the higher terrain. It's not the most snow, but there's a very good signal for a couple hours of very squally weather with the arctic front with blinding snow showers and 40MPH wind gusts, which by itself is almost enough for an advisory. Behind the front, with a very deep layer of steep lapse rates and good ambient moisture, any moisture from upstream lakes or from Lake Erie that makes it onshore and hits the terrain could cause continued squalls through a good portion of the afternoon with gusty winds. Even into tomorrow evening, moisture is still OK and there could be some orographic lift snows, and Lake Huron moisture could still drift as far west as parts of Lake and Geauga Counties tomorrow night. Flake size will be very small by later tomorrow due to the cold, but with the wind the fine flakes could cause very poor visibilities to continue in the higher terrain clear into tomorrow evening. I could honestly see areas from Lorain and Medina Counties points east (especially in the higher terrain) seeing hours (from late morning straight through the afternoon and potentially into the evening in a few spots) of visibilities below half a mile and gusty winds. Even if the higher terrain only gets 4-6" or so of snow, the prolonged potential for very poor conditions would honestly prompt me to issue a warning from Lorain and Medina east through the Snowbelt if I was sitting in that chair today and had that ability. But, I'm not, so I could be off base. At the very least an advisory seems prudent.