OHweather

This feels like an old school ultra amped hour 84 RGEM run Even with it being well phased, the northern stream is bordering on suppressing it (especially on the NW flank) if the PV/high pressure ahead of the storm trend any stronger.

lol

The NAM wants to phase better, but is also pressing the PV in a good bit more which suppresses things through at least hour 84… doesn’t mean much unless the global models have the same trend.

It’s too bad the recon data didn’t hit the NAM

Yeah I agree those runs will be telling. All the other 12z models generally trended a bit slower with ejecting the Baja low too, but outside of the Euro which definitely bumped SE it wasn’t enough to overcome other trends that supported a more NW track on the other models. So there’s clearly a fair amount of sensitivity to relatively small changes with how that ejects out and phases.

Worth noting that for reasons that are unclear to me, the NBM does not ingest all of the 0z Euro/EPS QPF until the 19z run (with the 12z hitting at 7z). Overall I have mixed feelings on the 12z runs. Trends to lift the PV out a bit quicker and for the northern stream diving into the Rockies to be more amped continued, but there was also a subtle trend to eject the Baja cutoff slower and/or not as cleanly, which would hurt the potential for an earlier/more aggressive phase.

The airmass in front of this is quality and there will be quite a bit of CAD east of the Apps, so I think DC sees a cold/wintry storm even if Chicago cashes in, but ice/sleet are in play for them for sure.

UKMET remains on board

I guess that's not the worst model run I've seen for MBY

Pretty great trends at 500mb... The PV over the Canadian Maritimes is pulling out a bit quicker, the northern stream diving into the Rockies is definitely trending more amped (with more amped ridging over western Canada/Alaska), there's better phasing, and heights are rising more ahead of the storm.

Yeah, I think it’s fair to say ice will be a limiting factor for LES for the foreseeable figure. It should still be open enough for significant snow Sunday through the first half of next week, but a majority of that will probably go into western NY. There is a window Monday into Monday night for a more westerly flow to try to push lake effect into the northern portions of the primary NE Ohio snowbelt. Interesting signal for some convective snow showers with the cold front later tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Wouldn’t add up to all that much, but someone could get a nice snow squall.

A little over 3” of pure fluff at home during the day today, bringing my total to 9.6”. Would say the office had a good foot by the time I left…it was dumping most of the morning and early afternoon.

Had 6.4” at home at 7:15am, probably about 7” at the office in Brooklyn Hts and still in and out of heavy, fluffy snow. Great event, generally overachieving across the board. Another few hours through the early afternoon where activity should remain intense before it diminishes from west to east into this evenings

The traffic maps and cameras did not look pleasant.

Here is the storm total snow forecast from this afternoon through 7 PM Thursday (so just this ongoing event)...it was a big jump from prior forecasts, but still too low in the Toledo area and I suspect will be too low in locations downwind of Lake Erie from Sandusky points east. Coming up on an inch of snow, heaviest still off to the northwest. Initial signs of the first bit of lake enhancement near Cleveland on radar.

The models hinted at this on Sunday and then completely backed off, and never caught back up until the snow was almost over. Maddening as an operational met, splendid as a snow lover. My best explanation is that models were not properly initializing with the vort max that dove in from the Arctic, as everything associated with that (starting with the overperforming squalls in the Chicago area this morning) has over performed with this system.

The uptick in the snowfall forecast over the last 24 hours has been remarkable, and some models still have more snow than what’s in the current NWS forecast. I am just leaving the office and it is snowing here, looking forward to a very snow next 24 hours!

Oh yeah, for sure. It's a little frustrating. Some of the observers really do try and come to a reasonable number, but it's hit or miss. Can say the same about most climate sites (but not all, there are some that are usually pretty dead on!). In better news, the 0z models have trended a little more amped with the system Wednesday afternoon/evening, bringing 1-3" of synoptic snow to north central and northeast OH through the evening (probably 2-5" of snow in the snowbelt through Wednesday evening with lake enhancement), with some component of snow squalls Wednesday evening even outside of the snowbelt. Beyond that, it seems like a situation where fluffy lake effect/enhanced snow performs well through Thursday afternoon, especially in the higher terrain. Road conditions will probably be very shitty Wednesday evening and night with snow showers and squalls along with gusty winds and plunging temperatures.

It’s the measuring at the airport. It seems like if there’s any reason for them to struggle (snow quickly melts after it falls, snow is blowing around, etc) they will come in lower than immediately surrounding obs. I don’t think it’s intentional (if it’s cold and not windy they’re usually ok) but it’s been consistent for years. Looks like some more snow late Wednesday into Thursday, with a little shortwave crossing late Wednesday ushering in some NW flow lake effect. Doesn’t look like a crazy setup, but will definitely freshen things back up after a couple of milder days.

Definitely was a surprise this morning! Measured 3.6” at 10am, have had enough since then that my event total is right around 4”. That squall early this morning wasn’t really lake enhanced either, I was sleeping but based on radar and how much fell it must’ve been dumping for an hour or two.

The pattern the next week or so is pretty awful...massive trough over Alaska and near the west coast of Canada. But the ensembles have consistently suggested a ridge from just off the west coast into Alaska returning around mid January, with some cross polar flow into a deepening trough centered near Hudson Bay. The imminent torch will scour a lot of the cold air out of North America so the pattern likely won't immediately flip to something extremely cold after mid month (will take a little time for true arctic air to return), but some semblance of winter should return in 10-15 days if this look (which is pretty consistent across the Euro, GFS, and Canadian ensembles) is close to correct. Euro ensemble: GFS ensemble: Canadian ensemble:

To answer @Frog Town's question, it is both a radar beam height issue and lake enhancement climatologically weakening across NW Ohio issue. The radar beams are highest over the I-75 corridor between Findlay and Toledo (an FAA radar south of Detroit helps over Toledo, but was down for over two weeks in late December), so lower-level snow such as lake effect will be under represented by radar over that area. @Chinooktouched on that well. However, Northwest OH (particularly the Maumee basin) is also an elevation minimum, so a little bit of down sloping also occurs and weakens any lake enhanced snow showers to an extent.

Returned home to a solid snowpack this afternoon compared to what it was Wednesday morning. Would guess my house saw 6 or 7" of snow while I was gone based on nearby reports. Wednesday afternoon and evening looked like a particularly snowy period on radar, heard the roads were quite bad.

Measured about an hour ago…0.8” of fluffy snow through the day to push my event total to 3.9”. Light snow with the first little clipper has picked back up over the last half hour. We haven’t had too many stretches like this where it just wants to snow in recent years, this is good stuff! Glad the band that flared up this afternoon helped make up for lackluster totals last night to my north.

I could see that 12-18" additional panning out near the lakeshore in far NE OH, especially in northern Ashtabula County, but Geauga County won't get that much IMO. The downside of grouping multiple counties together in a warning. It just seems like there will be too much of a break after snow lifts out of there tonight, and I think stuff will progress through too quickly with the cold front tomorrow evening. There's definitely a shot Geauga County verifies a warning at some point (they haven't yet...) but the 12-18" more feels inflated there. We'll see, as I've been wrong before. Nice band ongoing at the moment.