OHweather

Yeah, I think it’s fair to say ice will be a limiting factor for LES for the foreseeable figure. It should still be open enough for significant snow Sunday through the first half of next week, but a majority of that will probably go into western NY. There is a window Monday into Monday night for a more westerly flow to try to push lake effect into the northern portions of the primary NE Ohio snowbelt. 
 

Interesting signal for some convective snow showers with the cold front later tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Wouldn’t add up to all that much, but someone could get a nice snow squall. 

A little over 3” of pure fluff at home during the day today, bringing my total to 9.6”. Would say the office had a good foot by the time I left…it was dumping most of the morning and early afternoon. 

Had 6.4” at home at 7:15am, probably about 7” at the office in Brooklyn Hts and still in and out of heavy, fluffy snow. Great event, generally overachieving across the board. Another few hours through the early afternoon where activity should remain intense before it diminishes from west to east into this evenings 

10 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Correct. I finished with 4” here in Toledo. Heck of a surprise and a terrible commute home. Anyone without 4WD was struggling

The traffic maps and cameras did not look pleasant. 

Here is the storm total snow forecast from this afternoon through 7 PM Thursday (so just this ongoing event)...it was a big jump from prior forecasts, but still too low in the Toledo area and I suspect will be too low in locations downwind of Lake Erie from Sandusky points east. Coming up on an inch of snow, heaviest still off to the northwest. Initial signs of the first bit of lake enhancement near Cleveland on radar. 

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Major bust in SE MI today. We had a 50% chance of snow, finally updated to a winter weather advisory late afternoon. Will probably end up with 3-5" in the metro area. Models did terrible with this.

The models hinted at this on Sunday and then completely backed off, and never caught back up until the snow was almost over. Maddening as an operational met, splendid as a snow lover. My best explanation is that models were not properly initializing with the vort max that dove in from the Arctic, as everything associated with that (starting with the overperforming squalls in the Chicago area this morning) has over performed with this system. 

The uptick in the snowfall forecast over the last 24 hours has been remarkable, and some models still have more snow than what’s in the current NWS forecast. I am just leaving the office and it is snowing here, looking forward to a very snow next 24 hours! 

11 hours ago, NEOH said:

Thanks. I know we've talked about CLE's measuring in the past. It just sticks out more when locations directly adjacent measure 2x as much .  

Looking forward to the upcoming pattern... we'll have snow flying for several days it looks like. 

Oh yeah, for sure. It's a little frustrating. Some of the observers really do try and come to a reasonable number, but it's hit or miss. Can say the same about most climate sites (but not all, there are some that are usually pretty dead on!).

In better news, the 0z models have trended a little more amped with the system Wednesday afternoon/evening, bringing 1-3" of synoptic snow to north central and northeast OH through the evening (probably 2-5" of snow in the snowbelt through Wednesday evening with lake enhancement), with some component of snow squalls Wednesday evening even outside of the snowbelt. Beyond that, it seems like a situation where fluffy lake effect/enhanced snow performs well through Thursday afternoon, especially in the higher terrain. Road conditions will probably be very shitty Wednesday evening and night with snow showers and squalls along with gusty winds and plunging temperatures. 

On 1/12/2026 at 8:33 AM, NEOH said:

CLE only reported 1.3" yesterday. Seems like that area specifically always comes in with the lowest totals. Looking at the PNS reports areas right around there reported more. 

It’s the measuring at the airport. It seems like if there’s any reason for them to struggle (snow quickly melts after it falls, snow is blowing around, etc) they will come in lower than immediately surrounding obs. I don’t think it’s intentional (if it’s cold and not windy they’re usually ok) but it’s been consistent for years. 
 

Looks like some more snow late Wednesday into Thursday, with a little shortwave crossing late Wednesday ushering in some NW flow lake effect. Doesn’t look like a crazy setup, but will definitely freshen things back up after a couple of milder days. 

Definitely was a surprise this morning! Measured 3.6” at 10am, have had enough since then that my event total is right around 4”. That squall early this morning wasn’t really lake enhanced either, I was sleeping but based on radar and how much fell it must’ve been dumping for an hour or two. 

The pattern the next week or so is pretty awful...massive trough over Alaska and near the west coast of Canada. But the ensembles have consistently suggested a ridge from just off the west coast into Alaska returning around mid January, with some cross polar flow into a deepening trough centered near Hudson Bay. The imminent torch will scour a lot of the cold air out of North America so the pattern likely won't immediately flip to something extremely cold after mid month (will take a little time for true arctic air to return), but some semblance of winter should return in 10-15 days if this look (which is pretty consistent across the Euro, GFS, and Canadian ensembles) is close to correct.

Euro ensemble:

GFS ensemble:

Canadian ensemble:

On 1/1/2026 at 12:12 AM, nwohweather said:

@Ohweather has done a great write up on the I-75 hole

To answer @Frog Town's question, it is both a radar beam height issue and lake enhancement climatologically weakening across NW Ohio issue. The radar beams are highest over the I-75 corridor between Findlay and Toledo (an FAA radar south of Detroit helps over Toledo, but was down for over two weeks in late December), so lower-level snow such as lake effect will be under represented by radar over that area. @Chinooktouched on that well. However, Northwest OH (particularly the Maumee basin) is also an elevation minimum, so a little bit of down sloping also occurs and weakens any lake enhanced snow showers to an extent. 

Returned home to a solid snowpack this afternoon compared to what it was Wednesday morning. Would guess my house saw 6 or 7" of snow while I was gone based on nearby reports. Wednesday afternoon and evening looked like a particularly snowy period on radar, heard the roads were quite bad. 

Measured about an hour ago…0.8” of fluffy snow through the day to push my event total to 3.9”. Light snow with the first little clipper has picked back up over the last half hour. We haven’t had too many stretches like this where it just wants to snow in recent years, this is good stuff! Glad the band that flared up this afternoon helped make up for lackluster totals last night to my north.  

I could see that 12-18" additional panning out near the lakeshore in far NE OH, especially in northern Ashtabula County, but Geauga County won't get that much IMO. The downside of grouping multiple counties together in a warning. It just seems like there will be too much of a break after snow lifts out of there tonight, and I think stuff will progress through too quickly with the cold front tomorrow evening. There's definitely a shot Geauga County verifies a warning at some point (they haven't yet...) but the 12-18" more feels inflated there. We'll see, as I've been wrong before. Nice band ongoing at the moment. 

Roughly 3" total from everything yesterday through this morning here. I was a little surprised by the last second (ish) Geauga warning yesterday, but thought the totals by this morning in the higher terrain/upslope areas would still be a little better than they are. Would agree with NEOH that strong winds were the main issue, as once winds turned WNW the organized banding did not last long closer to the lake. Driving across Cuyahoga County in the 9-10 PM timeframe, there was actually a fair bit of graupel mixing in (it was dendrites at my house in northern Summit when better returns moved overhead). PBZ managed to pull a 10" total out of Jefferson County OH (!!) from a band of moisture from Lake MI that began upsloping near MFD and then was persistent from there points ESE to a little south of downtown Pittsburgh overnight into this morning, so I guess you had to go reallllly far inland to get the good snow with this much wind. It does look like parts of Portage/Trumbull/southern Ashtabula into Crawford PA got 3-5" type amounts overnight into this morning closer to NE OH. 

It seems like the remaining LES with this first portion of the event is going to be mainly light...it is still relatively fluffy so if there's any increase in organization as the winds shift more westerly and fetch increases through this afternoon/evening it's possible someone gets another 2 or 3", but I don't think it'll be that exciting overall. 

A pretty prolonged WSW flow locks in tonight through most of Wednesday afternoon ahead of the next clipper. The LES parameters aren't extreme at all in this timeframe, but by the time you get to ERI the forecast soundings are half decent with instability and lift getting into the bottom half of the DGZ, with deep moisture above that. This should be a window where the lakeshore areas between Lake County OH and Erie County PA can actually get some decent snow, though I am a little skeptical about our LES Warning for Lake County to be honest...just am concerned the snow won't be that heavy that far west based off of forecast soundings being pretty meh around Cleveland until later Wednesday afternoon. However, that is the type of flow that should theoretically produce near the lakeshore.

Winds come around NW to even NNW quickly Wednesday evening as a cold front moves through. There should be a period of mainly light synoptic snow just ahead of the front and a burst of snow along the front itself, which will be enhanced by the lake. The lake enhanced burst of snow along the front should be intense, but the fetch goes short quickly and forecast soundings quickly suggest much drier air moving in Wednesday night...so while I'm sure there will be some disorganized LES Wednesday night into early Thursday, it may not add much more. So I think everyone gets more snow Wednesday afternoon and evening with the clipper/front, but the LES may not add much (outside of the lakeshore where they have a longer opportunity tonight through Wednesday afternoon). Still wintry, but it wouldn't surprise me if the currently advertised totals are a little hard to hit. I'll be out of town from tomorrow morning until some point later Friday, so I will miss out on whatever makes it down here tomorrow evening. 

14 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Great to see Geauga was upgraded to a warning for 6-8".  Winds are strong out there... already a lot of blowing snow. 

Yeah even if you get something closer to 5-6”, it’ll blow around a ton. Should be a fun next 12 hours or so around here! At least for those who like winter and snow/blowing snow…

Things should kick off quickly by mid-afternoon as a band of lake-enhanced snow squalls along a sharp trough pushes off the lake. Thereafter, inversion heights and moisture depth do become marginal pretty quickly but the airmass will support good snow growth even in shallow LES bands, and upstream radars still look solid...so, there's optimism for a window of continued WNW flow LES into a good portion of tonight behind the squalls along the trough axis this afternoon. 

The period of snow showers/squalls along the trough axis that will swing southeast across lower MI/far northeast IN and northern OH during the day Monday will be accompanied by some impressive conditions...the temperatures will be cold enough for the relatively shallow snow showers to produce good dendrites, and winds will be gusting 45-55 MPH. The low levels will be unstable enough for the snow showers to have some convective component, so they'll be squally. The snow/blowing snow combination will be impressive for a 1-3 hour period. I'm guessing some snow squall warnings are a possibility. 

All of a sudden, this looks like a pretty snowy few days starting on Monday in NE Ohio

4 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Read this over the weekend... 

Consistent snow cover through the first 12 days of December has happened only four other times since 1938.

Cleveland hasn’t seen bare ground since Thanksgiving, with snow remaining on the ground through every day of December so far — an early-season stretch that has happened only a handful of times in the city’s recorded history.

Climate records from Cleveland Hopkins International Airport since 1938 show that Cleveland has had consistent snow cover from Dec. 1 through Dec. 12 in only four other years: 1958, 1974, 1976 and 2002.

Snow-on-the-ground measurements come from a single site at Cleveland Hopkins Airport, where trace readings can occur even when substantial snow remains on the ground elsewhere in the region.

The four Decembers that began with snow on the ground for all 12 of the month’s opening days did not all unfold the same way.

In 1958, snow remained on the ground for nearly the entire month, finishing with 24 days of snow cover.

In 1974, 1976 and 2002, snow lingered well into mid-December before warmer stretches briefly erased it, preventing those months from rivaling the most snow-dominant Decembers overall.

In other words, an early lock-in doesn’t guarantee a snow-covered Christmas — but it does tilt December toward a more wintry-than-usual outcome.

Historically, the most snow-dominant Decembers — measured by days with snow on the ground — include 1963 and 2010, when snow cover lasted 25 days, and 1958, 1989 and 2000, each with 24 days.

But for those who feel like winter arrived early this year and never really loosened its grip, the data supports that impression — and shows just how rarely December begins this way.

Interesting stats! Obviously it has felt like the coldest start to winter in a number of years, but it's impressive that this prolonged snow cover is so rare for this early in the season. 2010-11 was quite a winter...

5.8" total here from the clipper + LES. The cold has done a number on western Lake Erie!

A little over 4" here so far (a bit over 2.5" from the clipper, about 1.5" from LES). Should see stuff fill in towards midday, good chunk of dry air moving overhead this morning. 

The 12z RGEM would be pretty interesting for the western lakeshore and secondary snowbelt at times overnight tonight through Sunday! It also looks plenty snowy for the inland core snowbelt.

Pretty cool how there's literally no surface reflection with this clipper. All the snow is driven by mid-upper level jet dynamics and frontogenesis.