All of this stuff is highly dependent on Elsa as well. If Elsa came into Central PA there are no 40's. There is nothing to say the ridge does not stay just far enough away to keep this interesting (and wet).
Op GFS gives the 'Cane the Fidel treatment and declares it minimal.
(Edit, noticed a post on Trop board that said the Init. was way too low and the actual Ob's will not be ingested until the 18Z run)
Another thing that is usually not very good. Hurricane seasonal forecasting. But anyone that think this could NOT gain Cat 4 or 5 strength is fooling themselves. It could go from 2-4 in the Straights of Cuba alone if it slowed down by then. So I agree that this part of the forecast is usually off.