Bubbler86

I think the forcing was lacking from the very start. In Florida the daily Meso analysis says it is is prime for thunderstorms every day for months but they do not always take place because of very little forcing in the summer outside of wind direction based ocean breezes acting as the match to light everything else. I am so NOT a severe expert so I will not try to act like one but having a great CAPE is not always enough to squeeze that atmospheric sponge. That front in the mid west is a long way from us. As someone earlier pointed out, there is the possibility of cells after dark as the stuff that forms to our west is going to come by eventually though it looks more MSV/USV based.

Johnstown south to just east of Confluence is getting trained right now. That seems to be the eastern most extent of significant convection right now.

At the risk of making some jealous, I just got jacked by a sun shower. T on the board. That is one step better than S.

That is some mighty green grass! :-)

Getting a little but more active over here now. Fair weather clouds replaced with a few gray cumulus clouds that I bet have some sprinkles under them

Imagine if the models were better figuring out the variables? There would be no weather boards. (as has been said here before).

So for the second time since noon, a fairly small and minor cell has popped just south of Carlisle. Weird microclimate thing going on there.

The way I look at it...the models are never wrong (Edit-In the way they have been programmed) in coming to their conclusion. The parts they use to come to that conclusion might be wrong in apparent weather but if everything happens the way they depict through the column, winds, etc....they would be right. So if it showed something there is always a reason for it.

Here is my current view toward Paw Paw and the Southwest.

Total stretch of an explanation but thought I saw a lot of straight west and Northwesterly winds at the surface. Not always a recipe for super heat over here. Dry and seasonably warm.

110's in Canada seem very possible again. There is a dearth of Red L's on the NE angle of the CMC I just looked at. Seasonable temps.

The HRRR looks ominous for the MSV and USV in my opinion. They mentioned Supercell and that is what I get from the latest run.

LOL. Not betting on 200+ hour GFS yet. Just model discussion.

If you compare to 6Z its a pretty big change. We went from being at the bottom of a trough to being in the middle of a double barrel ridge stretching from the GOM to Canada. Still not hyper heat but very, very dry look. Lots of westerlies I would think.

I feel it for areas north and west of me. Not sure about H-Burg but would it surprise anyone if they got another 1-2" today?

Early again. Just walked outside and am not particularly liking the look of the scattered cloud cover. Its got that "fair" look to it with not a ton of development going on.

Not optimal having that trough up in the N/W.

Have not done a temp update in a while but 82 at 11. Definitely have a shot at low 90's if the sun stays out.

The NWS AFD was definitely down with tomorrow. They suggested the shortwave today was weakening. I hope you right though with less severe and more showers.

It may tough with all the folks saying he should not enter the locker room again (Magic especially) but positive for you guys if you pull it off. He is an all star talent.

I am trying to soften the market for him so the Mav's can swing a deal and bring him to big D.

And the previous Summer was a combo Spring/Summer thread with only 40 pages. And with apologies to @CarlislePaWx, we have not even spoken much about the Australia win over the USA after Canderson brought it up. After looking at the Aussie roster, they have a lot of NBA talent so not really that big of an upset. Australia is missing Ben Simmons though. If Ben had played the US may have had a better shot with Hack-a-Ben tactics.

I totally agree with your assertion. You keep good records and for your own knowledge, yours trump MDT and the HIA.

Yea, that is what it was looking like. Really leads to decent summer temps albeit dry. All 3 of GFS, CMC and Euro were not wanting to spit out much qpf though Euro was at least close to normal.

Yes, West is bad for those that want normal temps. So far July has been almost exactly normal at MDT.