Bubbler86

What is your call for today? Fair weather ruled the day in the LSV yesterday and you called that. Do we get rain today?

I thought it interesting the the Susq Valley was the majority of the non cloud covered area this Am.

If we get nearby stalled frontal lift and forcing I think a more general "one for all" type rain could commence. Still some storms but as we know the storms only are too finicky sometimes plus heating would be really limited with the front so close/clouds. It was quite the reversal from yesterdays very dry runs.

LOL, yes I should have said "those of us that need beneficial rains". Although even the rain forest known as Harrisburg will be pretty dry by this weekend if there is no rain before then.

I was just about to post that I was happy, in the MR, to see the CMC get the front hung up near us this weekend and offer the hope of some rain. Bad that its on the weekend of course. GFS was still very dry for parts of PA but moved the focus of it north over the N Central part of the state. Previously mentioned front gives Southern PA rain early next week. That GFS period of heat you mentioned would definitely be a triple digit watch for MDT area. Edit-Euro hangs up the weekend front along S Pa as well so game on for beneficial rains this weekend...until 12Z at least.

Its peeking out here but lots of higher level clouds. Would call it mostly cloudy. More clear off to the west. Looks like most of the state is partly or mostly cloudy.

Cloudier here now than any point I noticed yesterday. 68 but an uncomfortable 68.

That line looks vicious.

The fact that they are doing a winter preview thread in Mid July is evidence enough to place the thread on ignore, right?

Too obscure?

I think the forcing was lacking from the very start. In Florida the daily Meso analysis says it is is prime for thunderstorms every day for months but they do not always take place because of very little forcing in the summer outside of wind direction based ocean breezes acting as the match to light everything else. I am so NOT a severe expert so I will not try to act like one but having a great CAPE is not always enough to squeeze that atmospheric sponge. That front in the mid west is a long way from us. As someone earlier pointed out, there is the possibility of cells after dark as the stuff that forms to our west is going to come by eventually though it looks more MSV/USV based.

Johnstown south to just east of Confluence is getting trained right now. That seems to be the eastern most extent of significant convection right now.

At the risk of making some jealous, I just got jacked by a sun shower. T on the board. That is one step better than S.

That is some mighty green grass! :-)

Getting a little but more active over here now. Fair weather clouds replaced with a few gray cumulus clouds that I bet have some sprinkles under them

Imagine if the models were better figuring out the variables? There would be no weather boards. (as has been said here before).

So for the second time since noon, a fairly small and minor cell has popped just south of Carlisle. Weird microclimate thing going on there.

The way I look at it...the models are never wrong (Edit-In the way they have been programmed) in coming to their conclusion. The parts they use to come to that conclusion might be wrong in apparent weather but if everything happens the way they depict through the column, winds, etc....they would be right. So if it showed something there is always a reason for it.

Here is my current view toward Paw Paw and the Southwest.

Total stretch of an explanation but thought I saw a lot of straight west and Northwesterly winds at the surface. Not always a recipe for super heat over here. Dry and seasonably warm.

110's in Canada seem very possible again. There is a dearth of Red L's on the NE angle of the CMC I just looked at. Seasonable temps.

The HRRR looks ominous for the MSV and USV in my opinion. They mentioned Supercell and that is what I get from the latest run.

LOL. Not betting on 200+ hour GFS yet. Just model discussion.

If you compare to 6Z its a pretty big change. We went from being at the bottom of a trough to being in the middle of a double barrel ridge stretching from the GOM to Canada. Still not hyper heat but very, very dry look. Lots of westerlies I would think.

I feel it for areas north and west of me. Not sure about H-Burg but would it surprise anyone if they got another 1-2" today?