Bubbler86

Yea, my zone had likely in it yesterday. Not any more. The 3 MR models do have Sat night into Monday as a washout at the moment.

I think that if a met degree did not requires ridiculously advanced mathematics, this type of forum proves it would be an oversaturated job market :-).

I think someone can go into the day with the skills and knowledge like (Hello) Newman or Canderson seem to have, add on the model depictions for guidance, and do fairly well.

I happened to speak to someone yesterday that said it was raining at the Ice Cream Shoe, not too far from you, as well.

You know, if their maps were never posted here I am not sure I would ever go look. No offense to them but they are in a bad position. They are almost always going to be wrong for some areas when they post large areas of MRGL. I think that probably is in line with your thought. The MRGL tag is like saying "30% chance of". A bit of a CYA. Though the folks in the USV got their fair share of MRGL yesterday.

Thanks, I will get some eventually (hopefully). As of today, it is not nearly as bad as last year. Feel a bit better with the AM model runs.

HRRR focuses south of us but does have some scattered in the LSV. Rap as well since it was brought up yesterday. Rap's LSV line is a little better than the HRRR. I think there is a much better chance for us today but no slam dunk.

What is your call for today? Fair weather ruled the day in the LSV yesterday and you called that. Do we get rain today?

I thought it interesting the the Susq Valley was the majority of the non cloud covered area this Am.

If we get nearby stalled frontal lift and forcing I think a more general "one for all" type rain could commence. Still some storms but as we know the storms only are too finicky sometimes plus heating would be really limited with the front so close/clouds. It was quite the reversal from yesterdays very dry runs.

LOL, yes I should have said "those of us that need beneficial rains". Although even the rain forest known as Harrisburg will be pretty dry by this weekend if there is no rain before then.

I was just about to post that I was happy, in the MR, to see the CMC get the front hung up near us this weekend and offer the hope of some rain. Bad that its on the weekend of course. GFS was still very dry for parts of PA but moved the focus of it north over the N Central part of the state. Previously mentioned front gives Southern PA rain early next week. That GFS period of heat you mentioned would definitely be a triple digit watch for MDT area. Edit-Euro hangs up the weekend front along S Pa as well so game on for beneficial rains this weekend...until 12Z at least.

Its peeking out here but lots of higher level clouds. Would call it mostly cloudy. More clear off to the west. Looks like most of the state is partly or mostly cloudy.

Cloudier here now than any point I noticed yesterday. 68 but an uncomfortable 68.

That line looks vicious.

The fact that they are doing a winter preview thread in Mid July is evidence enough to place the thread on ignore, right?

Too obscure?

I think the forcing was lacking from the very start. In Florida the daily Meso analysis says it is is prime for thunderstorms every day for months but they do not always take place because of very little forcing in the summer outside of wind direction based ocean breezes acting as the match to light everything else. I am so NOT a severe expert so I will not try to act like one but having a great CAPE is not always enough to squeeze that atmospheric sponge. That front in the mid west is a long way from us. As someone earlier pointed out, there is the possibility of cells after dark as the stuff that forms to our west is going to come by eventually though it looks more MSV/USV based.

Johnstown south to just east of Confluence is getting trained right now. That seems to be the eastern most extent of significant convection right now.

At the risk of making some jealous, I just got jacked by a sun shower. T on the board. That is one step better than S.

That is some mighty green grass! :-)

Getting a little but more active over here now. Fair weather clouds replaced with a few gray cumulus clouds that I bet have some sprinkles under them

Imagine if the models were better figuring out the variables? There would be no weather boards. (as has been said here before).

So for the second time since noon, a fairly small and minor cell has popped just south of Carlisle. Weird microclimate thing going on there.

The way I look at it...the models are never wrong (Edit-In the way they have been programmed) in coming to their conclusion. The parts they use to come to that conclusion might be wrong in apparent weather but if everything happens the way they depict through the column, winds, etc....they would be right. So if it showed something there is always a reason for it.