Bubbler86

Low of 43 this AM. 45 right now. THV made it to 45.

That is where you and I will always see things differently. A dry period of a few days. Sure, carry on. A dry period of 45 days? That is moon weather. Fortunately, from my view, Wed looks quite wet as of now.

Yes, but that was assumed right? We have kicked summer to the curb!. LOL. A bit of a close call next week. Probably some low 80's in the LSV hot spots.

Its close enough further on to merit a wary eye from NY to New England.

Would be an interesting event in some manner. Looking at the EC it would be a potential flooding situation for S/C PA. QPF charts are not super high but a dying low spinning off the Atlantic and stalling over PA/NE MD as it rains itself out.

I think MDT taking their top reports and making it look like an area wide event also cast some doubt over the whole thing. Taking a look at the two day ACIS reports, you see a much more moderate look than CTP's graphic. Most of these over 3" are well north of the LSV. Hit and miss on the big figures and the general LSV totals were more in the 1.75 to 3" totals. I am sure most of the high reports are real it was just not area wide.

There there is the CMC which takes this first system has it do a death dive to the left into NJ to allow the second more ambitious system to head for New England. Like yesterday, the MR runs are very squirrely as to low placements

Not sure I would call it a 'Cane but here it is ready to jump all over the MA after heading almost Due East for about 48 hours and then the string is pulled and it Yo Yo's South West.

Good stuff on the 12Z GFS. Has a Major 'Cane (not going to look up which name it is) going by way to the East in the Atlantic with a new tropical system spawning to the larger systems West while at our latitude. The new storm beelines for the East Coast and is about to head up the Chessie as moderate tropical system then, yoink, it stops and retrogrades Southwest to never been seen again. The end result is a run of beautiful weather with basically no rain for half a month.

MDT Departures: Going into a period where they start going back down at least some days. Starting at +2.3 as of today. The normal high at MDT is 74 right now and stays above 70 until October 7th. Normal low is currently 55 and stays above 50 until October 9th.

The direct sunlight issue has always been my problem.

Here is a pic of paweather posting it. Had to swing.

Not the one at MDT apparently. :-)

And the simulated radar is also wrong/different. No one says that simulation is perfect but its off by over 2" for a wide area. Its a mess.

It bugs me because I have to report it for job sites. With NWS going officially at their number, that is the number I went with.

This figure does agree with the the official figures vs. their other graphics.

I saw your mention of that. Close to Cap.

Also see Capital City Airports WBAN station recorded only 2" in the last 72 Hours.

44 here right now.

This am's daily summary confirms that MDT's total qpf received over the last 72 hours was 1.80". The dry slot apparently got them hard.

I do not either. Will wait to see their official summary tomorrow. The other thing that bothers me in the simulated radar. I checked their daily summary for yesterday and it matches the airports readings of .47 through midnight so I suspect it will match tomorrow for 9/23.

I called the NWS at CTP and they verified that the airport is going down as 1.8". I thought it was low as well but I needed the exact figure for one of my construction clients doing their daily field reports. This whole thing is a mess. They also verified that LNS is 1.66. I showed them this chart and they said these are COOP reports and not official. What a cluster. I would be really going off the deep end except the usually reliable radar simulation report is verifying correctly almost everywhere that takes official readings. Its a tad low for MDT and LNS but within 1/2". Edit-I will check the official daily summaries tomorrow AM and see if I was told the truth or if they just like to jerk with people who call.

Pivotal having issues right now. What is the corresponding ground truth from it?

I see that now. A loop back into Northern NE. Well at least nothing higher than the low 70's on the CMC as well.

We all win where we=fallinista's. But if anything is based on this triple play becoming reality, I would prefer to not count on it. Should spark up the NE thread though.