You may have started a new theme for the season. 'At least were are throwing darts' to indicate something is on the map. Nut is posting, Blizz top 4, etc...winter is here!
How much for Shortpump. In all seriousness we really do have a full suite of solutions here. GFS is still amped. UKIE and Icon focus on the first piece of energy but slides below us (good times). Euro and CMC both shows signs of a second system forming that keeps the whole deal minimized for us.
Sure, totally different evolution this time. Energy seems split keeping thins further south and less moisture laden as a second SLP forms on the front well to our south.
Storm basically minors out/starts to transfer to the coast going into Wed evening. On the plus side, there is no strong surge of warm air. But not a lot of qpf for PA.
I personally would not punt beyond mid Dec and even that is not as punt with a potential winter system next week. I think all modeling shows wintery weather here except the GFS....
I will take a shot. The air mass is coming out of Canada is quite cold as it moves into the Upper Mid West....the return flow from that ridge erodes it pretty quickly though so "stale cold"?
I know the feeling. I travel to Florida every few months and it gets stressful, in the winter, watching digital snow on models that I may miss. I fear I will miss the Blizzard of 2022!