Bubbler86

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... In the extended, all attention remains on model details associated with storms system tracking towards the mid Atlantic coast Sunday night and Monday. Model consensus showed a slight northward jog in QPF/snowfall overnight, only to return farther south with a flatter wave solution with 12z runs this (Fri) morning. Negative NAO/Positive PNA pattern means we`ll have to keep watching closely for the evolution, although upstream blocking high is absent which should act to favor the flatter wave and southern solution, keeping heaviest snowfall along and south of the Mason Dixon line. Still, this track will bring plowable snowfall to at least the southern third to maybe half of central PA beginning late Sunday night and continuing Monday, with many more details still yet to be determined heading into the weekend. Very preliminary ballpark ideas are that a coating to 2" could be in play across the central mountains, with 3-5 inches or more possible along the southern tier. In snowier solutions that only comprise 25% of members, the wave packet is more amplified allowing moisture to advect farther northward and jet forcing to be stronger. This could force the heaviest snow axis to land within our CWA, but again a flatter wave solution is favored at this time due to aforementioned factors. PoPs remain high and all snow Sunday night into early Monday, with snow likely winding down through the latter half of Monday. The storm is not fully within the 72-hour range of deterministic QPF and snow forecasts.

I think I will be shoveling, that is where I am at. LOL. Any accums down there for you today? Snowing on and offer here but just wet.

Yea, for PA standards we are golden. I am still not going over 2-4" as of the last runs because there is no reason too at this point. Still some evidence that it will still be limited to that but some of those crazy model runs yesterday where the primary was running over N VA and staying intact longer made me start to waver. If you told me I had to pick a number right now I would say 3-6" for us but still think our respective NWS offices at least do a Winter Storm Watch for now.

I think some of the probably unrealistic snow maps showing almost all of PA getting near a foot makes it a bit hard to accept if it ends up the areas below us actually get it (and in a MUCH less wide band.)

He goes with Miller A "ish"

I am not even sure we are even remotely close the evolution yet either. A Southern MA slider is now on the table along with the still more prevalent transfer suites. It does seem unlikely at this point that this is going to make the entire CPA and MA forum happy. Those amped up transfer scenarios are bring the warm goods to a lot of those folks down there.

@ 10-1 this is a Kuch low end WSW/very high end wwa jack for much of the southern counties...plowable up your way. But again this is a mean.

I keep watching for the relaxation next weekend and it keeps showing on all suites with temps getting to or above freezing multiple days. If we end up in the high end wwa/low end wsw area, temps of 32-33 with sun will wipe us out quickly. Another cold shot coming post next weekend but would prefer we bridge it with temps staying in the 20's to try and keep the pack AND potentially freeze some lakes for skating.

A Tolleris Fooking Throwdown

@mitchnick off the ledge!

10-1 UK not too far from 0Z. A bit more northern expanse of snow in the eastern side of our forum. This would be a general 2-4 or 3-6" snow for much of the LSV when looking at Kuch.

UK is going to maintain its south stance through 66.

Probably the most 0Z souther and flip flopper UK is running right now.

Occasional flakes here but up to 36 so no accums. This is after a very cold low of 17.

I bet they do not release them until this evening (or possibly tomorrow AM but maybe this evening.). I know you want your 6" and that is definitely still in the possible range but less likely than souther as of now. I mean I am still holding tight with my 2-4 down here as there is nothing 100% concrete yet.

If CTP is going to do aleets, I think WSW from ~ I80 south.

It is a nice snow for you and I no question. That movement hurts our Northern folks. This has changed a lot since we started tracking as initially we were looking at a cutter up into Oh and a transfer with a large percentage chance of a screw zone. This is a safer and easier way to score. Cannot say if it makes sense vs. say all options seem still on the table.

One could argue the CMC is not a Miller B as it tracks the low so far South it can be prone to squeeze itself off the NC coast instead of transfer. Still a very healthy snow for south PA. Quite a of snow from the coastal including a CCB like effect.

A short drive if it does not get you on that prog.

Going to need to up my 2-4" if Euro and UK match somewhat closely. Opps, just saw someone was doing a PBP, apologies for jumping the gun.

Personally I think we still end up less than the Icon is showing but I think some here feared we would be smoking cirrus at 12Z.

Take your 10" and like it :-)

Well no one jumping in so...Icon is a slight bump south and a lessening in accums but still a nice hit for southers. More of a belt tightening than a big jog. If other 12Z's show jackput in the LSV or just south, the watches may start flying soon.

That place is a great little town. Old Tyme N Md.

As pointed out on the MA forum, this would be part of the snow continuing into Monday evening. Now I have to do some work so hopefully someone else has the same luck of a hold or trend a bit North with the Icon PBP. Nam with a sweet start to 12Z except for North of I80.