Bubbler86

GFS looks good through 18.

LWX seems a bit low/restrained with their expected totals in the DC area

Yea, it has stayed pretty consistent the last few runs as well.

Yep, Icon was way south. This is the GFS's storm though. Rgem held serve.

I am just watching :-). Here is what I am referring too. Mix in the middle of snow. It's close on some models

They are fighting a two headed issue down there. Soundings keep showing very close issues with mixing even on the Northern periphery just north of the big cities.

Fv3 is still 1-2" for some in the LSV so one 12Z did not go backwards.

LOL. Looking for trends. Nam took a sizeable step backwards but the Nam is excluded from getting much press from me right now. It did terrible in predicting the evolution of this situation.

12Z HRRR actually took a slight step backwards for us up here.

Long range HRRR supports this look. I had mentioned last week that the timing on this is uncanny. Hitting back to work. Euro playing catch up though.

I feel bad for the tidewater folks if they get all rain.

Nam off to a bad start this "snow season".

HRRR has another .75 to 1.25" for some of the LSV. As training noted earlier, not a guarantee as he lost out on some this AM.

Thanks. It does seem doubtful that the Nam scores a total coup here. Preponderance of "evidence" against it. So even if this ends up being a Short Pump winner and DCA gets little to nothing, the GFS still gets some credit for being consistent in really being the only model to even show that up until the last 48 hours I believe. The Euro had very interest in significant snow even at 0Z this AM. I suspect the Nam folds in a few hours. (Edit-CMC also showed Sig Snow at around the same time as the GFS but then backed off it on the next run.)

Ah, for some reason I was thinking 6PM. Thanks

Is that an 18Z Euro comment?

I have seen a trend recently of people posting simulated radar instead of the actual precip maps? Is that something we are doing this year? Not being sarcastic just curious as it has happened here and other forums quite a bit. The simulated radar shows virga I believe.

How will people rank this if the middle of the road solutions are correct? More amped than the Nam but just 4-6 for any maxes.

Time for @paweather to cash in on his Pivotal membership and give some 18Z Euro updates. The RAP is quite a bit South of the GFS....but much more amped than the Nam and Euro.

I just took a random sample from Fairfax county, during the height of the storm, and its real close. Rates would help but they get to freezing 700-800.

Throw away the Nam, Euro, and Icon. All American needs is the HRRR and GFS.

One thing the N VA area needs to watch is changeover issues. Its just not that cold.

Ground truth for us is not much different but DCA is a lot different. MA forum should go bonkers.

GFS is north through 36

18Z Nam still does not care what the GFS is showing. It bent to allow a weak disturbance (a few runs ago) but is still a total southern slider. Tidewater sees a little rain on its way by to the south.