Feel like I am missing out on the Miller talk but Miller or not, assuming we are talking 18Z Euro, there something going on off the coast at hour 78....see circled area below. At hour 84 that something now has an elongated look to it like it is absorbing the first low (and the moisture). That is my non professional take on the precip hole. It may have already been said as I missed some of the posts. I saw another post stating that it was a change in where the model focused showing the low at the baroclinic zone which is basically what I think happened.