Bubbler86

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tuesday appears to be another mostly cloudy and seasonably cool day for many as upper level troughing and weak easterly flow remain over the area. Overall consensus is for a slight westward and even northward shift in the max shower activity on Tuesday, but given the cool air aloft and easterly flow, a shower is possible just about anywhere on Tuesday, along with a rumble of thunder in spots. NBM/WPC QPF along with multi-model ensemble means favor the NW Alleghenies with max POPs on Tue with a weaker signal for Wed as drier air continues to funnel sw into the region as the closed upper low is nudged off to the east. Temperatures are forecast to trend warmer through midweek with maxT +2-8F higher vs. Monday but still below climo in most places.

Would you not need the mostly sunny to bubble up the storms? LOL. NWS has you partly sunny with 30% chance of showers. Not sure which team that is. I forgot to add storms to the end of my original post. Fixed.

Rain picking up again a bit to the west of the LSV. Hoping tomorrow afternoon the wet short term pattern kicks in a bit better for the Harrisburg area crew with some storms.

Late nooners, cloudy and 67

So is this reading your home monitor? I was not sure which was which but it was where I was quoting the almost 1.2" before.

He does not own a winter coat or an umbrella so go easy on him. :-)

It is science so we need to get it right. LOL. It's interesting because in my neck of the woods, we did not have a radar issue. I withdraw my soaker comment for areas East of the river (or even near the river) then. I always take this estimated site with a bit of a grain of salt but not used to having to question actual radar returns.

You guys had a nice band over you a good bit of the morning.

I reviewed two radar sources (live not estimated totals) and those areas of south of Lancaster City would have had to be over 1" if the returns were right/no virga issues. So definitely looks like something is up. This was the second band setting up to roll through at 7:15AM.

PS on the Radar estimate I am using, over the last 12 hours, the highest around Mt Joy is .29. Goes up to closer to 1/2" near Pinkerton Road to the south of Mt Joy.

Thanks for verification. That unsoakens my soaker comment a bit as I was basing it on the live radar I viewed this AM which showed high dBZ's through much of the LSV South of the Harrisburg general area. Less the farther east one went. I have my spotters reporting on the ground .2-.3 inches in Eastern Cumberland county.

The glitch in the radar really surprises me. Not so much on the estimated. But makes sense if they both were not reporting correctly.

Ha. If you guys were fighting Virga it may not have mattered. Either way I am glad you cashed in on some much needed rain. Wish Harrisburg and North could have as well.

Almost 1.2" for you now.

South and South East of Lancaster had two rain+ lines move through that both dumped .5 to 1" each per estimated. Looking at the radar review (forgetting estimated and just looking at the live radar) the .3 to .5" would have to be too low imo but maybe some massive virga? Estimated had you between .15 and .3 depending on side of town for Mt Joy.

I have a spotter reporting of ~ .2" in Lemoyne so some areas there did better.

Closing in on 2" estimated S/E of Lancaster City.

The HRRR spanked anything else I looked at. Hopefully that umbrella came in handy.

Hopefully you get a bit more.

Over 1" just south of Lancaster City and they are getting hammered again right now. A little sparse Harrisburg and North.

Central and Southern LSV soaker.

The HRRR wants to skip me with the best stuff and give Canderson/central lsv the treatment tomorrow AM.

Latest HRRR Bullseyes areas to my east for tonight's opening round of rain. About 1" in Carlisle.

Looks like a peaceful property. Almost like your own little canal there.

Lol.