Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Chuck Rhodes listened well in school!
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That is the first and last thing they teach in public met school. Range, range, range. LOL. 4-8" snow? Not enough. Go 4-10!
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Parts of MSV now in D1.
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Some singular areas of PA reporting a below average temp summer so far including in or near the LSV. Overall LSV Average to +1 south to +1 to +2 north. Less that 3% of all stations reported BN.
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Sat does not look too wet right now. They should keep their eyes to the sky this evening though. Might get a surprise. Let's hope the convoluted late week end/early week systems go in our favor. From what I can tell, no model has MDT reaching 90 today. Rgem and Euro are the closest non Meso but I think they extrapolate out to 88. HRRR has 89.
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LOL, imagine if you had that power. You would far outclass the carpeting installing weather prognosticators! A windows wide open 55 this AM.
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I see it and certainly think that is not bad. I am just not a fan of it being dark at 8:15Am both for my own likes and kids standing at school busses.
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Yea I am surprised it is still stalled but was assuming it goes eventually. I for one have no issue with the swap and as I stated earlier this year, would not be looking forward to total darkness at 815am
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Last year of the last one
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The rest of summer after Monday.
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UH OH, GFS Heat Wave
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The EC of the forum
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To follow up on this it looks like a lot of average summers had MDT hitting closer into the 5-10 range for Aug. Here is a summer long chart. This chart does not include Spring or fall days. My quick count shows MDT at twenty one 90 degree days this summer so it seems likely 2022 will fall in behind each of the last 3 years.
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I went back a few years. The last time we had an August with less than ten 90 degree days was 2019 when there was 9 (MDT at 8 right now this year). If you go back to 2014 you can find an August with no 90 degree days and it correspondingly was BN by -2.6. 2013 was -2.8 and had no 90 degree days and the entire 2011-2014 stretch with BN was less 90 degree days than normal. Lots of years with 5-10 90 degrees.
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But that 90's count is not that abnormal, right? When the normal is 85-87 for most of the Summer...June 23-Aug 19 or about 2/3 of the summer...what does getting 3-5 degrees AN mean other than a normal day? Get up to 98 or stay in the mid 70's and we have something really abnormal on the up or down side IMO.
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I feel like in an average summer MDT should hit 90 12-15 times in August. 4-5 degrees AN. Counter acts the 70's and low 80's days.
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We are sitting at 78. MDT is surprisingly only 82.
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True nooners. 72 and sunny.
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I will definitely concede that elevation is part of it but the models (especially the Nam) being off almost every day makes me think concrete and car exhaust are playing a role as well. Another point, it has simply not been humid overall this year. There have been days of course but one would think our temps may spike a bit more during the say with drier air but has not really been the case.
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HRRR and 3K are both getting moderately more excited about LSV afternoon scattered convection tomorrow. GFS has a wet Saturday AM for the LSV as well.
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Paweather early nooners....66 and Sunny.
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Oh, my brazen comment was not directed at anything related to me. I meant people are brazen vs. what the GFS, Nam, etc. said. The HRRR has been running a bit closer to reality but almost everything has been too low including the hottie Euro (once in range, EC is often too high out past 72 hrs) . At my place the Nam and GFS high predicts have been almost spot on . Low predicts a bit too warm at night. The NWS forecasts highs have been too low way more often than not.
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Prior to 1990 MDT had a Mean average of 77 or higher, for August, just 4 times in history (103 years). Since then it has achieved that 8 times counting this year. 8 times in 33 years. My mean of 71 this year would have been a little below average but not near a record prior to 1990. Since 1990 the lowest mean at MDT has been 71.6 which is the only time it was below 72. (Eye scanning numbers so may be off by one but the point is still made)
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I am glad I have cashtown's equipment to back me up.
