Bubbler86

Last year of the last one

The rest of summer after Monday.

UH OH, GFS Heat Wave

The EC of the forum

To follow up on this it looks like a lot of average summers had MDT hitting closer into the 5-10 range for Aug. Here is a summer long chart. This chart does not include Spring or fall days. My quick count shows MDT at twenty one 90 degree days this summer so it seems likely 2022 will fall in behind each of the last 3 years.

I went back a few years. The last time we had an August with less than ten 90 degree days was 2019 when there was 9 (MDT at 8 right now this year). If you go back to 2014 you can find an August with no 90 degree days and it correspondingly was BN by -2.6. 2013 was -2.8 and had no 90 degree days and the entire 2011-2014 stretch with BN was less 90 degree days than normal. Lots of years with 5-10 90 degrees.

But that 90's count is not that abnormal, right? When the normal is 85-87 for most of the Summer...June 23-Aug 19 or about 2/3 of the summer...what does getting 3-5 degrees AN mean other than a normal day? Get up to 98 or stay in the mid 70's and we have something really abnormal on the up or down side IMO.

I feel like in an average summer MDT should hit 90 12-15 times in August. 4-5 degrees AN. Counter acts the 70's and low 80's days.

We are sitting at 78. MDT is surprisingly only 82.

True nooners. 72 and sunny.

I will definitely concede that elevation is part of it but the models (especially the Nam) being off almost every day makes me think concrete and car exhaust are playing a role as well. Another point, it has simply not been humid overall this year. There have been days of course but one would think our temps may spike a bit more during the say with drier air but has not really been the case.

HRRR and 3K are both getting moderately more excited about LSV afternoon scattered convection tomorrow. GFS has a wet Saturday AM for the LSV as well.

Paweather early nooners....66 and Sunny.

Oh, my brazen comment was not directed at anything related to me. I meant people are brazen vs. what the GFS, Nam, etc. said. The HRRR has been running a bit closer to reality but almost everything has been too low including the hottie Euro (once in range, EC is often too high out past 72 hrs) . At my place the Nam and GFS high predicts have been almost spot on . Low predicts a bit too warm at night. The NWS forecasts highs have been too low way more often than not.

Prior to 1990 MDT had a Mean average of 77 or higher, for August, just 4 times in history (103 years). Since then it has achieved that 8 times counting this year. 8 times in 33 years. My mean of 71 this year would have been a little below average but not near a record prior to 1990. Since 1990 the lowest mean at MDT has been 71.6 which is the only time it was below 72. (Eye scanning numbers so may be off by one but the point is still made)

I am glad I have cashtown's equipment to back me up.

Your Top Ten August comment got me thinking as I was sitting here thinking this has been one of the coolest Augusts ever realizing some of that was elevation...but Dulles being 1.6 below MDT sort of clinched it a bit. The other thing that bothers me is how brazen everyone is stating that their high temps will beat model predictions. It has become common place. The models are partially based off past events which means...most days are hotter now than similar conditions would have made them in the past.

800' but this is my 4th summer here and we usually are within a degree or two of MDT's numbers for that year (average). Last August at this point we were banging an average temp HIGHER than MDT's numbers due to less rain/clouds and had close to 30 days of 90 or above just like MDT. The HIA has been extreme this year. We are 4 degrees lower on average than the last 3 Augusts here at this point so this has been a one time event. I remember doing daily posts last summer how we were pushing 90 by lunch over and over. Elevation is definitely playing a part as HGR is not as extreme to the cool as I am but something has been up this summer in the LSV HIA area. Like I said before, should MDT be warmer than Dulles? The heat in the urban areas has really stood out this summer. Last year Dulles and MDT were .1 different so basically the same. This year Dulles is 1.6 degrees cooler than MDT! Hard to think it is just clouds and rain being the difference over almost 3 months.

Average temp (high and low) over here so far in August has been about 71 putting us as a departure of about 5 below normal for Aug using MDT's normal. Both lows and highs have been below average most days. Most likely one of the coolest Augusts ever. I will concede that we probably average a bit lower each month than MDT but not to this level. I confirmed these numbers with Cashtown who had similar results. As a compare, last August I was running neck and neck with MDT's numbers as I have other summers here. This is the closest to a "summer with no summer" that I have ever experienced with only 5 days 90 or above and that number may hold for the final tally.

If that comes to fruition, the boo birds will be out. There is an article in a Florida newspaper about how Hurricane season is ramping up earlier and earlier. They printed it one year late.

Another early nooner in the books?

Tropical wise...carry on and enjoy your Vaca, Training. Looks to me that models are punting into Sept now.

Hopefully the next wetter period, starting Sunday (maybe Sat) produces better for you.

53 here this AM