Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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And Dubois.
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18Z GFS the wave again does not begin to intensify at all until off the FLA East coast and it heads NE from there. VA Beach gets some light snow showers.
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I would certainly be very surprised if the GFS pivots too much to the positive for us. If the book closed on this chance today, it was one of the first to sniff out the trailing wave being forced south and east of original projections (it was too extreme to that point though.) Also, the book does not close today.
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Thanks for noticing the Caps are tied for most points in the league! Oh you mean the Icon. Mostly Fredericksburg and south.
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Icon opens 18Z with another miss and the trailing wave is much too late to help us.
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I think this is a potentially exciting/alarming time from Texas East to S VA including Ala, NC, SC, much of GA and even the Florida panhandle. There is definitely a precedent for us to get skunked due to the PV, to be determined, but that system 7 days from now is a high potential one for the South... as you alluded to.
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The are not so Jarry anymore.
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Definitely the trend at 12Z. Outside the Gem outlier, the wave did not have enough room to form in time for it to be a consequential system for us. But, it is such a convoluted situation, we are just watching models for fun at this point. So many things can change in the next 72 hours.
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In contrast to the Gem, the UK has a much weaker and later starting wave that misses some of the LSV for Sunday. The Gem is mostly on its own right now pending the EC.
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Despite almost full sun, a brutal 21 with a Windchill of 4 for nooners.
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27 -28% drop. A big difference from the 8-9% raise in usage.
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Mid Next Week the GFS has the Paweather 540 line visiting Cedar Key Florida while the CMC has a monster southern snow and ice storm brewing with the ridge much less amped down the coast and the 540 line visiting Pedro. GFS does have a Gorilla in the Gulf brewing late week though. People will like the GFS again for the next 6 hours.
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I predict a WB Kuch map before the day is out...that shows closer to a 10". LOL. The one big difference I see between the GFS and CMC is the vort is on the 90 hour map where the GFS has a well defined 996 slp off the VA coast while the CMC just has an weak wave at the same time. This allows the trailing piece of energy to form much faster and father west on the CMC due to spacing.
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10:1
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Actually too far west for the LSV Sunday afternoon. Rain in SE parts. A rainy Eagles game as depicted.
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Gem has the trailing low much further west than the GFS and starts us off with mixed precip (snow west) Sunday AM.
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GFS has a very delayed piece of energy forming/strengthening on the front, on to the Gem.
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Icon mostly a miss for Sunday but it had lost it at 6Z so this is a positive step. Eagles game still snowed on. The low forms a better signature a bit south east of where we would like.
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It would not be so frigid if the AC was on less!
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Met Winter Mid Way Point for Middletown Monthly Temp Deviation: Dec -1.3 Jan -2.4 (2 of last 3 days have actually been Above Normal surprisingly so this number is not as low as some would think) Snow Totals/Deviation: Normal Snow by Jan 14: 7.8" Total Snow so far for Met Winter 24/25: 5" Snow Deviation: -2.8" QPF Totals/Deviation: Normal QPF by Jan 14: 4.77" Total qpf so far for Met Winter 24/25: 3.9" QPF Deviation: -.87"
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Bagged an 11 here right now.
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It is a tough situation as others have stated. A trailing piece of energy forming on a front. Ripe for blown forecast to the plus or minus.
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Good call as to the Sunday event!
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Understand. It is what keeps model watchers going but can be an enormous waste of time. Your point is quite valid.
