Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Decent snow into Southern third of PA at 18Z Sunday (not out west)
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Icon has low forming on artic front at at 6Z Sun...in Eastern Alabama.
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It just seems that sometimes the Icon sets tone for the GFS and Euro. Not always of course...more in these jump situations.
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Models really "deemphasizing" any real snow accums to start Sat. New coastal off VA Caps robs moisture. (This if for Sat NOT Sun)
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Icon starts before the rgem on pivotal but regem downloads faster so it catches up What has not been jumpy so far? Least jumpy have bee Canadian, GFS and Chatgpt. Euro has been bouncing.
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Icon up next and is often trendy re: give us a hint on what the globals will do.
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If the Nam has anything it does not appear it will be amped as much as the rgem. 0-1 to start 12Z.
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Sell Mitchnik, sell!
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The movie "Trading Places" was sort of weather betting.
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Could have a CPA Group meeting at Hollywood Casinos and watch the big board as suites come in.
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One reason is that this place (Site wide) would be incorrigible. There are already enough bad hot takes on model skill, if $$$ is involved it would be ugly. LOL
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Props to JB yesterday. He pointed out something I/some were not noticing. The Canadian was having the wave start to intensify off the artic front not the initial cold front.
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12Z is off and running. 1-Does the Canadian suite clown everything else except Eurochatgpt? 2-Does our namming come at this hour? 3-Are Eagles fan going to be anxious again about snow on Sunday?
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GFS eye candy.
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NWS is somewhat poo-pooey for Sunday but do mention plumes. Will probably up their game if 12Z runs show any kind of consistency on a threat. Precipitation should taper off Sat night as the front exits the area. However, some model guidance forms a wave of low pressure along the slowing front. If this were to occur, a second period of snow/rain is possible over Southern PA Sunday. The 12Z EPS plumes only support POPS in the 30pct range over Southern PA.
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15 this AM. Cold first half of winter.
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The Euro is bouncing around so much I am having trouble keeping track of whose side it is on. Back to a snowy solution at 6Z where it was not at 0Z. Map from AM.
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Icon comes NW a bit with the wave and has some waa level snows for the lsv sun
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There is probably a cold front coming Sat. The front tomorrow is a bit of a wash IMO. Temps not that much different but definitely not colder air whether polar or artic.
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There is a warm front coming through tomorrow which is simply a front based tail end of a vort passing by. The vort has a cold or occluded/stationary front also attached to it in Southern Canada. We are not getting a cold front at all tomorrow. We will actually have Warm Air Advection tomorrow as the front approaches. See this surface map:
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Ninja'ed. Nobody beats the Blizz.
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A lot of our larger snows come second half of met winter (and March but just keeping it to Met winter for this post.) On the info I posted earlier it shows the normal met winter snow at MDT by Jan 14th is only 7.8". The norm is almost double at 15.1" for the second half of met winter from Jan 15th-end of Feb.
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Summarily cast off the model that has bad news, risk it being right. History every winter here. (Not directed at anyone, especially you...more a commentary of what seems to happen often.)
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Ruin.... the group HH good luck charm??
