Yoda posted the Sterling AFD Severe discussion in the MA thread. Canderson may have to live vicariously on this one.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A lead wave ahead of a frontal system over the Ohio River Valley
will approach the area late Wednesday. Ridging will crest over
the area before heights begin to fall by Wednesday night. Given
the increasingly warm and unstable airmass, as well as some
added lift from terrain and the approach system to the west, a
few thunderstorms could develop mainly west of the Blue Ridge
late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Sufficient shear
will be present for storm organization, so a couple of strong to
severe thunderstorms can`t be ruled out.
The frontal system is set to cross the region on Thursday.
Cooling air moving in aloft above unseasonably warm and moist
air near the surface will likely result in moderate instability.
This coupled with moderately strong shear and forcing along the
approaching front should result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms, some of which could become capable of producing
severe weather in the form of damaging wind gusts and large
hail. Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given relatively
weaker flow closer to the surface, but there is enough shear for
supercells. Also, any boundary interactions (terrain/bay/river
breeze circulations) could enhance this activity.
Temperatures will be very warm with highs well into the 80s and
lows in the 60s to around 70 east of the mountains Wednesday
into Thursday, 20 to 30 degrees above normal and more akin to
summer than spring. Temperatures will take a tumble Thursday
night behind the front.