Bubbler86

MU got down to 45 so a quick cut off to that Easterly push of cool air.

49 for the low here. Woot, woot.....back door cold front wet and cold. I know some wish it to not happen but super anomalous temps

The 18Z GFS was much wetter than 12Z fwiw.

Most farmers can get Fed aid if they substantiate their losses so hopefully that works out for them.

Were it not for 2 days in April, we would be looking at an incredible deficit to start a year. Those 2 April days are masking how bad it really is with the lack of those .25 to .75" type rains we are missing out on.

I thought I saw the zone for Harrisburg say 95 this AM. Actually I still had the page loaded. They had already loaded up on MDT this AM.

And a trace of snow. They have been stuck at 77 so far for their high today.

We are heating up nicely here as well at 76 now. The MDT Norm for today is 77.

Almost an hour later it is up to 73. There are quite a few low 70's spread through the LSV at this hour...even some non-elevated areas of Adams, York and Lancaster including a couple 71's.

It JUST hit 70 here...almost 1PM on a fully sunny day, 2 days before the start of summer....and about as dry of a topsoil layer you could possibly imagine (no moisture laden earth keeping temps down.)

LOL......

Interesting. Will have to see how that may affect the progged colder temps in the Eastern part of the state tonight. 12Z Meso's raised the temps a little bit from the upper 30's to low 40's.

If MDT can get down to at least 59 degrees tomorrow AM, seems likely, it will mark the first time since 1997 that every day in May featured a low of 59 or below. Including this year, it has only happened 6 times....6 being ironic that this May will probably end up being the 6th driest month ever at MDT.

I noticed a few Meso's have upper 30's (one in the mid 30's) tomorrow AM for the Eastern LSV.

48 for the low this Am. In the interest of anomalous weather, I noticed this below at the end of the GFS. It is a heat wave that starts building on June 10th. Before this though it is not really "all that" hot due to ULL's being nearby as well as a trough dropping out of Canada. Several nights in the 40's next week after a fairly warm/hottish end to this week. Highs in the upper 60's and low 70's this weekend. This is as progged on the GFS. CMC is in the 90's Sat and much warmer overall. Icon would be near 100 Fri and Sat.

Heree is why USGS has not pulled many triggers. Groundwater in the green, 90 day precip yellow and surface water in the green (black line is current location on the graph). The April deluge in mdt causing a bubble of results that appear ok for some longer term stats but several inches in quick order does little for the yards and vegetation which do not care about 90 day stats.

The last 4 months of 2022 ended slightly below normal precip wise at MDT but decent and not anything that would cause angst or alarm. Before that Jul and Aug were punishingly BN and 2023 has picked up where last summer left off sitting ~ 5.5" BN since Jan 1 with 4 of the 5 months coming in negative. If you go back to July 1, 2022, MDT has received a rounded off 10" below normal and this was with the very generous figures from April where many did not do so well...10" BN in less than a years' time.

They use 4 different factors to come up with the rating. I agree we should all be in D0 or D1 using their factors but the ground water is not too bad right now which is pushing us higher than we would think.

Let's see if USGS agrees. Very surprised at their map last week.

Here is the NWS radar for a similar time. Lots of summer pop up showers throughout PA though I suspect some are not reaching the ground.

It rained at MDT yesterday (per their records) in a similar situation. Summer showers. That shower near Mt Alto was also legit as I could see it from my place (that look where you see white coming from the clouds). I am not sure if the MDT ob is legit though. They reported a T today as well...between 7 and 8AM.

It was not much but ironic as I had just spoken to them.

It is raining right now at my parents house just south of Harrisburg.

...and Chee Burger, Chee Burger,

Next up, Sanibel! On mow 7 here and it is 100% done until it rains again.