Bubbler86

Single digits into July still possible for some. I think you are at 8 through...might be tough to get through the rest of the month with one.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=hrrr&p=smoke_sfc

18Z GFS pretty generous tomorrow. Tomorrow Then Mon/Tue

I will be sleeping that one off. LOL.

HRRR is pretty smoky tonight and tomorrow especially West LSV.

The Euro dropped about 1/2-1" off its forecast from 48 hours ago. Will still be happy with this as long as the back slide stops.

Our visibility here is back up over 5 miles. Still some haze in the sky.

That Hurricane has SE Texas in its sights on the 12Z run. 20-30". That may bode better for us long term. Not ideal for them of course.

I was really hoping for Mon/Tue but as started earlier the trends have not been great. After that it does seem dry for a week. Still hoping we all get something tomorrow and maybe even some early stuff from the SE on Sunday.

AtomixVPN Service.

We need that tropical system to be a reality. The GFS long term is wetter again but feels like winter storms as to watching them dissolve as it gets closer.

CMC and GFS both in reverse mode right now for next week. Pretty worrying....need the rain. They started 2-3 cycles/runs ago and this is the worst CMC run yet. Down over an 1" from totals a few runs ago. This includes Friday as well. GFS's totals are better and not as extreme of a drop but still under 1".

Better hurry before PA bans TikTok.

62 here right now. Might have an under 70 June non rain nooner.

About 2/3 the state in D1 is fairly large. If the Monday/Tue front (no model I see has it fully arriving before Monday night now...CMC is Tue) continues to slowly step down, we may be in D1 and above for a while. 1.2-1" will be good for grass but will probably not change the drought parameters too much if it does not rain again for a week or two. May need that tropical storm to work out for us. Northeast Drought Summary Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware and southern New England saw primarily dry weather this week. Temperatures were mostly above normal across the western half of the region, with localized readings ranging from 4 to 6 degrees warmer than normal. Coastal areas tended to be cooler than normal this week, with isolated spots coming in 4 to 6 degrees below normal. More generally over the last few weeks, especially across the western half of the Northeast, streamflows and soil moisture are very low, amid unusually hot temperatures and high evaporative demand for this time of year. As a result, drought and abnormal dryness expanded across much of the western half of the region, especially from western New Jersey through Pennsylvania and New York, as well as northern Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Philadelphia reported its driest May on record, with only 0.24 inches of rainfall. A few areas that saw higher precipitation amounts this week, including the fringes of the abnormally dry areas in New England, saw localized improvements out of dry conditions.

Well it was in the mid 90's over your way but the humidly part has been stubborn to come along. LOL. Counting on next week worries me, I hope Friday pans out. Tropical storm moisture in the GFS (still south of us) the following week. There is snow in Canada on the 0Z CMC 228 panel. That is not normal.

There is your 30's I promised. Maybe colder one additional AM. A little smoky here... about the same as yesterday AM. 48 degrees.

I just checked the HRRR and it slowed everything down....comes in later and stays longer into tomorrow. At 12Z (both the HRRR run and time of day tomorrow) you were starting to get into some yellows while now on the 1Z run you are still pink at 12Z. Previously you were to be going green around 15Z now still pink and dark red. If this were a snowstorm we would have been on that within moments of release, but our smoke tracking must not be up to the same level :-). Little to no ground smoke here right now.

The calls for a bad early summer were about as bad of a call as ever stated.

We are about down to 5 miles, but it is also getting dark with the higher-level smoke covering the sun. Definitely no headlights needed though. I fully expect to go downhill tonight though will be hard to see.

Me as well. Hardly any smoke here. I can see Whitetail which is over 10 miles away.

It is actually quite sunny and just a tad smoky here. Did the HRRR drop the ball? (Kidding about the HRRR but it is clearer now than any other time today)

USGS is so eclectic. They monitor droughts and have live erupting Volcano web cams. #The year without Summer 2024. https://www.youtube.com/usgs/live When I started glancing at this from time to time, the area in the box had little to no red....now it is advancing.

The next time MD has a wildfire, it plans to send it to OC, NJ. Imagine if this was Bike Week.