Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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Just like Summer. Pounding rains headed into Harrisburg.
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VERY heavy rain heading into the LSV right now. Some people who bailed may be "bailing" for the opposite reasons. .5" has fallen in N Franklin county in the last 30 min. 40-55 or 60 dBZ stuff. Also, the Government does not sanitize their email signatures so they all match a set script/format? I bet Elon fixes that up sooner rather than later.
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Third one rides the track nicely on the 12Z Euro but this is just for fun this far out. Explosive possibilities per progged exactly like this. This run is going to ride it too far north eventually but a lot to digest if this became at all close to reality. The SER won today. A Voyager special with 70's possible again.
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12Z Euro mostly rain for both storms next week. A missed opportunity if this does not switch a bit.
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.12" in the bucket now.
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GFS wanting to attack us with all systems in the Short and Mid Term. All sloppy over to rain.
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GFS keeping with the ice storm next Wednesday...switching to rain mid way through.
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Even 1/4 to 1/2" is very welcome right now. Keeps thing stable for more precip hopefully to come.
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My understand is that it is tied to a type of NBM/a mean of models type situation that they then can manually adjust. This is especially true for longer range zones re; Paweathers snow showers. I do not think any met entered snow showers.
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Model wise, most of the rain does not come until this afternoon. Most of the energy is still in Indiana.
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I think that as more and more WFH arrangements go away the spread becomes more prominent. From 2020-2023, spread was much less of an issue.
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3K is 10PM and HRRR 11PM in your area. Rgem is 7AM tomorrow morning but am discounting that a bit.
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Mesos have rain well into the evening with still .5-1" to go.
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Take Care and feel better (both of you.) The flu and Covid are still both spreading around the area.
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40 and a ground wettner so far...hardly measurable. Snow piles survived so far. LSV colder than I thought they would be at this time. Low to mid 30's on Wunder.
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He is a warminsta. I miss a lot of his posts but I rarely see him leaning cold. He had nothing to tout for weeks. Lol. Now there is a battle of model driven data and and he has place at the table.
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Several Chuck references so going to add one more thing...his posts are spot on in acknowledging that indexes are just as readily/likely modeled incorrectly as actual surface weather predicts.
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Pretty strong indicators that cold air is going to dump in the east in the next 7 -10 days. Could be wrong and cold could mean no snow but not seeing a torch right now outside short periods of when storm tracks bring warm fronts through early in Feb.
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His info is as model driven as the progs showing winter precip. Either could be right. I think Chuck admits that. Disco is good though.
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A recipe for big precip! Yes, I thought of it not be ralph/steve b but a buckle up is a buckle up!
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Buckle up has been uttered in the ma thread. Makes it a good day.
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Sounds good, Chief!
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MDT breaks the Min Max record on Feb 11th on the 18Z GFS. I truly thought the "earth shattering" cold was done but progs today have piqued my interest. Again, not great for snow. Potential winter storm gathering at hour 282.
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Quite a bit of rain after the winter storm on the 18Z GFS so would do a lot to help drought numbers, then by the following Saturday, highs stay at or below freezing all day as the cold press is on. Too much of a good thing as progged. Suppressive and way below normal. But exciting times when it pulls away (maybe).
