Bubbler86

40 and a ground wettner so far...hardly measurable. Snow piles survived so far. LSV colder than I thought they would be at this time. Low to mid 30's on Wunder.

He is a warminsta. I miss a lot of his posts but I rarely see him leaning cold. He had nothing to tout for weeks. Lol. Now there is a battle of model driven data and and he has place at the table.

Several Chuck references so going to add one more thing...his posts are spot on in acknowledging that indexes are just as readily/likely modeled incorrectly as actual surface weather predicts.

Pretty strong indicators that cold air is going to dump in the east in the next 7 -10 days. Could be wrong and cold could mean no snow but not seeing a torch right now outside short periods of when storm tracks bring warm fronts through early in Feb.

His info is as model driven as the progs showing winter precip. Either could be right. I think Chuck admits that. Disco is good though.

A recipe for big precip! Yes, I thought of it not be ralph/steve b but a buckle up is a buckle up!

Buckle up has been uttered in the ma thread. Makes it a good day.

Sounds good, Chief!

MDT breaks the Min Max record on Feb 11th on the 18Z GFS. I truly thought the "earth shattering" cold was done but progs today have piqued my interest. Again, not great for snow. Potential winter storm gathering at hour 282.

Quite a bit of rain after the winter storm on the 18Z GFS so would do a lot to help drought numbers, then by the following Saturday, highs stay at or below freezing all day as the cold press is on. Too much of a good thing as progged. Suppressive and way below normal. But exciting times when it pulls away (maybe).

This is after a decent period of sleet. It does warm up post ice so its effects would be limited a bit by that.

18Z GFS starts us off as light snow on the 5th transitioning to an all out ice storm as the thermal column moves north but CAD keeps us below freezing at the surface and a bit above.

ChatGPT gave me this info including Marysville back when the soil was cracking.

@Ruin

Hard to update when it does not snow/rain much. It will not go backwards much in the winter due to the lack of drying heat but D2 mid to late winter is not ideal...but rain tomorrow is helpful.

Yea I am using MDT and the 30 year adjustments they do. MDT had the 11th coldest Dec since 1995/in the last 30. All time it was the 74th Coldest Dec out of 137 putting it a bit below the middle line.

The EPS (and GFS to some extent) looked awfully cold with its mean temps. Starting to think we have a shot at a BN Feb. I mentioned this because it would give met winter a clean sweep which was not on most peoples forecasts. Of course I could screw myself for using ensemble temps but I think that is a good place to use them.

D2 is just ho-hum for you now. I doubt the rain Fri will change this much next week but a second soaker could.

Train tracks set for a "Here comes the boom". Need the train now. Lows -3 to 7ish the morning of the 12th (Sorry Voyager, just a prog through)

MA LR Thread, Line one. MA LR Thread, Line one please.

Many people only post positive stuff. GFS was not good. Euro not starting off good with the 5th storm.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Binghamton NY 329 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-302030- /O.NEW.KBGM.WW.Y.0009.250131T0700Z-250131T1400Z/ Bradford-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-Wyoming-Lackawanna-Luzerne- Pike-Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Montrose, Scranton, Sayre, Damascus, Towanda, Hallstead, Milford, Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton, Tunkhannock, Honesdale, and Equinunk 329 AM EST Thu Jan 30 2025 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations around a light glaze. Localized amounts up to a tenth of an inch of ice will be possible, especially in the higher elevations. * WHERE...Bradford, Lackawanna, Luzerne, Northern Wayne, Pike, Southern Wayne, Susquehanna, and Wyoming Counties. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Very slippery sidewalks, roads and bridges are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday morning commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible power outages. The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission remind motorist to adjust speeds based on driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadways, and traffic conditions. Binghamton more gung ho to the northern than CTP is.

Gem has two much less amped lows next week, both rain for most of PA but the boundary is in place for low 3.

After the winter mix to rain next week, the GFS goes into a suppressively cold regime for several days with highs in the 30's and lows in the teens/low 20's. Nothing blocking the next low that cuts. Not a great run for snow. Plenty cold later next week though.