Bubbler86
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Everything posted by Bubbler86
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The question is, if it raining at 29 or 30 during daytime in Feb, are there any real issues? 30ish is pretty high for freezing rain during the day. Sleet bomb is a total different story. That will readily lay at 30ish.
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Nws zone says low of 39 at Harrisburg tonight. Currently 36.
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5 storms in 10 days (not all snow and one south) or if you start with Feb 11 then 3 storms in 5 days, yes.
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I think it is assumed surface will be cold enough. Once CAD breaks it will topple quickly (unless it does not). Next one
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Assuming that is right at 2M? How high does Cad hold? 1-2" of sleet is just a winter day while 1/2" of frz is a risk for big issues.
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It is still 49 here. Was super warm over here today. Some backyards probably made it into the 60's.
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Will call this the Thur system
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24 hours later. Will call this the wed system
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GFS still has the Saturday/Sunday Ice to rain storm. Tue misses well to the south (8 days out).
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Below freezing about 850 and down during the GFS sleet storm
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GFS is a sleet bomb. Not all that much frz.
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Unless the Nam or Fv3 is right. Would need stuff to fly tonight. Could start before dawn on Wed.
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HH GFS has the WAA surge streak but it is VERY minimal and to the west.
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It seems to be in several suites in varying levels but nothing like that namming. Would need a WAA or WSW for Wed and another one for Thu.
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I am not going to bring out the Cheez-its guy pic again but...yea. I will mention him.
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57 for the high here. A bit of a quick torch. Still banging mid 50's.
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Fv3 has that streak too but the Nam streak is an HH namming. Temps 25-28 during snow.
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I do not want it but would rather be in the know than not. This PV split has gained national news notoriety now.
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Check out that WAA streak. Pretty incredible Also would make this a 24-36 hour event.
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Just using the Euro as an example it shows 2" as the total QPF for you over the next 2 weeks. Definitely a good start to Feb but not a drought buster. We should receive about 1.5" during that time so just a little better than what is normal/what our min should be.
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High level guess, we will need about 4-5" in Feb before they adjust it "too much". Average is a little under .75" per week and so need to double that each week to start making meaningful dents.
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Very long ranger but the PV Split being ballyhooed about. Near zero at MDT at 7PM.
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Even the Hot Euro is still signaling ICE on Thursday thought verbatim surface temps are 30-32 in the LSV.
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Storm 3 next week and beyond but out past 300 now.
